The team loses an important member during the latest case...

CPHoya has been eaten in the night!







IT IS NIGHT

Remaining live players:

bhuber2010
legend42
remedys
UAW710
vixticator
VoraciousReader
well named


Majority is in effect at 4 votes.

If at any point you think majority has been reached, please post 'MAJ NIGHT', stop posting, and PM me.

Night will fall again at 9PM on Thursday.


IT IS NIGHT

Show me a hero, and I will write you a tragedy.

- F. Scott Fitzgerald


IT IS DAY!

Okay so obviously I would never kill Hoya if I were last wolf. That was another Hail Mary kill, hoping he was FPSing seer to try to get another peek and then I'd be mislynched.

****Seer, if you have 3 live peeks, it's a lock. Come out and save us time.****

Or 1 wolf obv....but 3 live villagers gets us there

VoraciousReader

Hoya thought VR/charry were never w/w, though his reason wasn't tremendous. mets kill might make more sense if it's her.

Legend, I'm curious.

Why aren't you assuming the last wolf is me?

It's not me, but here is what legend would like us to believe is his point of view:

the wolf team somehow killed a seer claimant with an incorrect peek of him (legend=wolf) and 2 correct peeks, instead of a seer claimaint with 2 correct peeks (legend=villager/Charry=wolf.)

If I were legend in that scenario, I'd have a pretty big question mark over the 3rd peek by the second seer. That third peek is VR=villager. So wouldn't the most likely scenario (from legend's point of view) be that the third peek is wrong?

Especially since the incorrect "seer" who died, really wanted to lynch me?

If vix is the seer, of course, all of this is moot, and I certainly hope he didn't peek CPHoya last night.

lolwolves

I don't think I've ever seen this spot before. I think just based on his reaction I want to believe legend, but I was thinking, it's actually not true that wolf-legend could never kill hoaya there. If hoya is seer and legend is wolf the game is over whether legend kills him or not, so he can kill him and if he flips seer gg whatever. If he's not seer there is at least a chance right?

It's goofy and I think reaction-wise legend seems genuine, but it's not mechanically clearing I don't think

also seer with 3 live peeks locks the game.

I have to do a bunch of stuff away from a computer this morning fyi. If I'm the seer I don't have a lock yet, but I'm probably not the seer :P

Nice!! Gg Charry
Hoya's a villa.. lolsun, ~lolme
If I'm seer I peeked Hoya v.

Votes from post 2504 to post 2513
Night in 1 day 10:00:55
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
1	VoraciousReader	UAW710 (1)
6	not voting	well named (1), VoraciousReader (4), vixticator (0), remedys (1), legend42 (3), bhuber2010 (0)

After Charry died last night and before Hoya was NK'd I reread Charry and Pitch. I've got an MQ in the works, although I think I may wait to post it (should I?) in case the seer has the game solved. My conclusion was that the last wolf was probly VR>Hoya. Hoya flipped v, and now Legend has come into question from Hoya's fake peek and him being nk'd. Also, from rereading Charry's posts I found UAW looking good, and Vix looking a little bit good.

WN
Bhuber
UAW
Vix
Legend
VR

It doesn't bother you at all that when the wagons were even I came in and put Charry ahead? I'm really your best wolf read at this point? That's just lazy villaging.

That first question is a decent point. Charry was on you hard all game, so as a wolfbro it wouldn't surprise me too much if you returned the bussing.

Except tactically it doesn't make sense. If you're assuming a wolf team of me/charry/gtpitch, you have to believe that after going down a wolf day 1, the second wolf decided to bus the 3rd wolf as hard as he could. Which is basically disastrous play while the seer is still alive, because he might get me lynched (and almost did, iirc) and could still be peeked and get no credit for it.

I'm new to this game so bear with me.
Couldn't Charry have been peeked by the seer at any time and get no credit for anything? I don't see how that relates to him bussing you, or you dying?

Bussing a fellow wolf generally hurts your wolf team. It costs you a vote, lessens the number of voices confusing the village, and increases the number of mislynches you have to earn to achieve parity to win.

The only reason to do it is to make yourself look good (or sometimes, to make the other player look good if you go down as a wolf.) That can be a compelling reason to do it, but it's extremely dangerous with a live seer, because by bussing you are sacrificing the mislynch now in an attempt to set yourself up for the endgame. If at any point you get peeked, all the credibility you earned for yourself by the bus is wasted. With only two wolves left, if Charry successfully lynches me and is then peeked, it's game over, village wins.

I'm not saying it's impossible. Many wolf teams are bus-happy, to the point of sacrificing optimal play. But when there is an easy lynch on the table like UAW, it would be poor play for me to put Charry in the lead, and it would also be poor play for Charry to harp on me for days.

Also I have a read, I'm going through day 2 now and Hoya was a pretty big dickhead that day.

Thanks for the explanation VR, however.. here's the MQ I was working on.

Charry payed a lot of attention to VR this game, having her as a top wolf throughout the entire game. I also realised that VR's emotional posts could have been somewhat genuine and made as a wolf. Ie she sorta is angry, and exagerates it as a wolf. She got angry because people were accusing her of slanking. She said that that's been a reoccuring issue she's had, and it is so serious that it's making her consider quitting WW. Much of this sentiment could be real, but as a wolf she could be overdramatizing it and using it to make her seem genuine and villagery. What follows are some Charry quotes. As I mentioned earlier today, I'm getting from this that the last wolf is probably VR>Legend, and UAW is looking good, Vix a little bit good. I realize that my analysis may not be the best, so hopefully you all will also analyze these Charry quotes and learn something.

Isn't it typical where wolves have lists that have all villas but one wolf? Legend would be the wolf here.

Looks good for Bhuber I think.

VR would be the wolf in this list.

Legend W

VR W

Charry on VR.

HOYA 1377*: Originally Posted by gtpitch View Post

Early wolf read on Legend. VR high on villa list..

Bhuber v. More like UAW is a villa who's an easy target for lazy wolves.

Going after an easy 'wolf'.

Good for UAW

VR imo.


VR wolf. Legend wolf?

Good for Vix? Maybe..

VR may well be his wolfbro. Charry's talked about her more than anyone. He is bussing her and we know he likes bussing.


Again, I think UAW's villa cause he's SUCH an easy mislynch target for a wolf. If UAW flips v Charry gets no blame, because UAW was slanking so hard!

So far I'm not finding a lot of useful Charry spew. His interactions were primarily with dead players.

Remedys, are you aware that your list theory is awful because there is only one wolf lefrt, and therefore you disprove your theory that will be exactly one wolf in each list with every second post?

I lol'd. It could be more of a tendency than something that always happens. Also, in my theory Legend is the possible wolf showing up on Charry's villa lists. You're the possible wolf showing up on his wolf lists. Perhaps one of those is right, and not the other.