Me and road are gonna go down in a sinking ship together!

anyone but road

Dont even care if I am saving a scum. I just like the guy.

(p.s. i guess i should have expected that the natural reaction to me spending 14+ hours on this yesterday would be that I was desperate as scum...but damn, thats demoralizing any way you look at it - I know hate you all )

out of the four people who are like consensus town at this point (doc, slendy, achro, fonti), how you can think that slendy has stopped playing the game?

like, no offense to the other three or anything, but i think slendy has done by far the most work today

also, why do you think slendy could be a tunneling mafia for his play today, but you think i'm a villager for my play today?

@road, you've probably explained this earlier but where are you getting this hard on for achro being SHC

i feel like i remember 1 particular post floating around but its like finding a needle in a haystack at this point

banks, you need to take a hard stance on road now

are you going to continue to primarily ignore him (while town reading him (while he has a mafia case on you)) while everyone blasts him?

im almost to the point where i am willing to crash and burn over road and just have everyone else be right and me just be wrong.

and i'll be okay with that

You are associative tunneling I hope if we lynch road today he flips scum. I however think that dorian is going to flip scum. I think that his day 1 was not trying to find scum. I think he has been concerned about himself not dying much more so than finding scum.

Talk to me about why you think dorian is townie for me.

(although I do want him to answer the part with why he's using such thin justification for achro being SHC when it seems like a horrendous/terrible/bad play from a game theory perspective just to "cut down on the workload")

that just seems bonkers to me

also @doc, im a villager yo


halp!

I already have taken a stance on him you said it in your post lol I underlined ti for you. I think that he is town. I addressed his case on me earlier I spoke with him last night for about 20 minutes even played a game with him where I tried to show everyone including him why dorian's filter is a scum filter.

How am I in nayway ignoring him?

I know you've alluded and even said he's town.

My point is that you should be actively defending someone you think is town if you think they're town and they're currently getting railroaded by ~everyone in the thread except for me.

(to be fair there is a chance that everyone in the thread is correct about him and I am just wrong but I am a sucker for tone reading people + I think a lot of what he says is misinterpreted (perhaps cause of the language barrier)).

(i guess the underlying point i am making is that youre kind of softdefending him but not really willing to stick your neck out there (which, to me, kind of sounds like mafia defending someone they know is town...but not really caring either way if they die)).

do you see where I am coming from?

hence why I thought there was a chance that road was correct in his banks!mafia read

(its basically half of why I am out so hard out of the gate yesterday)

I understand that. I however think that dorian is mafia and am pushing on him. I honestly think road is probably town but I dont feel strongly enough about it to hard defend him. I think that there is a world where road is mafia
and everyone keeps saying me and him are together so that I get lynched after him.

I know for a fact that isn't the case with regards to myself. I think dorian has been mafia since day 1. I also think that if he flips mafia people will realize I'm actually town and the game becomes that much easier.

The basic logic, if I'm simplifying it down to a thought or two, is that before bhuber said a word it was clear the lynch order was road, dorian, and then him or bhuber at 3 and 4. In this scenario if both him and riki are wolves there is no reason to make a single noise because therr are two rounds for someone, anyone, to fall down and get into the top 4 over one of them. If ANYONE does, the wolves win. (Assuming riki and bhuber). There is no reason to make a stink if the other wolf is "above" hum on the suspicion list. Because if it's above him, even if he dies, riki is next and wolves win with three mislynches.

Why make a stink then? There is no reason if it's those two. Makes zero sense. It makes riki and bhuber an almost impossible combo. Now let's say just rhuber is wolf. Why make a stink? Bevause the other wolf is beneath him. You or road. Bevause in that case he desperately needs people to get below him on the list. Not even to win (that would be nice) but to just actually pull some small strategic victories out of a losing scenario. This game is about winning the strategic victories, more than the actual end game victory. I believe who moves on is voted on by who played the best. That is an amazing play even if he eventually dies. To bring himself from mid game elimination to end game player in one argument.

I try to figure a reason for Bhuber's argument without him being a wolf. Why would he attack road and then just back.off and go full force on banks. Why say that "if road is a wolf, banks definitely is. But if banks is a wolf, road definitely is not" (paraphrased) A tautology that requires us to kill banks no matter what but possibly spare road. A HORRIBLE bit of strategy given road is the highest likelihood of lupine DNA. I can't wrap my head around Bhuber's argument being legit because he not only goes swinging against a guy with a weaker argument for wolf than him, he actively defends the guy with the most evidence against him and creates a line if logic that if followed will defend a highly suspicious player and require lynching a less suspicious player to exculpate the more suspicious one.


Spark notes: his argument makes no sense to make, especially the way he made it, unless both him and either dorian/road are wolves OR he simply has zero strategy and really hates banks and is willing to name terrible arguments defending the #1 target in order to go after someone with questionable guilt. And IF bhuber is a wolf, drawing attention to himself make absolutely zero sense if his partner had less suspicion than him.

He isn't right. Did you read me yesterday based on my responses as still a wolf? Did you ever read ratchet's filter?

also @doc, perhaps you need to reconsider whatever strategic value you think you see in lynching me (cause LDO I know there is none but its my job to help you see that).

1) not sure what/if any/logical deductions you can get from my flip either way (like I am trying to see things from your POV).

- it appears to me that you think riki will somehow be cleared from me flipping mafia (which he wouldn't really be cause he is hardly even pushing me...if you give people that much credit when they're hardly pushing people, thats probably a mistake to begin with).

2) not sure what you get by me flipping town other than a wasted lynch (i guess your logic is that if we're going to mislynch, it may as well be me since not much is lost).

3) I think you/and pretty much everyone are heavily, heavily discounting plausible wolf teams based on d1 interactions (i.e. ive seen many people (not you in particular) bring up that riki/dorian cant be mafia based on their interactions).

Given, I actually havent gone back and read them myself but from a general strategic POV, discounting possible wolf teams based on d1 interactions is generally really terrible/awful/horrible way to play. d1 is like literally the easiest day to interact with your mafia bros. Its like the exact easiest day to bus/say all sorts of nasty **** to one another/vote eachother,etc. The village has like 13 possible lynches, it goes without say that you can probably say just about anything to a wolf bro and the village will end up going another route/lynching someone else entirely.

(plus riki voting dorian (and banks too)) really means absolutely nothing if dorian were to flip scum because it was in a way where dorian was literally in no danger of being lynched (cause his wagon got no traction)...not saying riki is scum or anything (i havent even really filtered his posts yet) - just saying its strategically poor to elminate mafia combos based on d1 in general.

I dont disagree with you and I can see the logic from your perspective.

There is a fair chance that I am actively defending mafia (road), but sometimes you just gotta be wrong and deal with the consequences later if you feel like your gut instinct is right

I may join you on dorian - ill have to think about it more later.

Votes from post 1743 to post 2316
Night in 2:59:53
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
4	road	dorian78 (29), Riki (99), Slendy (85), fontisian (33)
1	bhuber2010	DocEspana (27)
1	dorian78	TehBankertin (125)
2	not voting	Achromatic (32), road (58)
1	Error	bhuber2010 (64)

i think you mentioned seeing his post in the confirmation thread and that made you reconsider your opinion on him for a bit

it's also been mentioned multiple times that people just don't look for mafia on day 1s on his home forum

so i'm not sure why you keep harping on this point tbh

He doesn't get a free pass. I keep reinforcing to remember he isn't really.in the auto cleared group. But he is so much less suspicious than the other people that he really should be in the end game and if it comes to him, the final people will decide if it's him or the the one remaining survivor of Ro/Ri/Bh/Do.

You're analyzing thought and arguments, which is fine and true. I'm analyzing play. The other four all played like they could be wolf. Banks played like he was horribly wrong (and he was horribly wrong. I agree). It's not that my way of analyzing it is better, it's just that I happen to weigh some stuff heavier than others. Your argument on him is totally legit.

I did read ratchets filter - I dont think it really says much/if anything about you or most of the remaining players.

The only people that ratchet really pushed that are still alive are slendy and achro, both of whom I feel are likely to be villagers and even if they're not, I probably wouldnt lynch them till must lynch or lylo? (or whatever its called (what does lylo stand for))?

the remaining players he gave town reads so I think that basically kind of devalues any interpretation of spew

(spew is generally easiest to interpret when ratchet is attacking someone because its easiest/easier to tell if his push is genuine or he if he's generally just frustrated with a townie thats coming hard at him (which seemed to be the case with achro and slendy))

I obviously did that on day 1 I might be doing it again here too but I feel if dorian is mafia I'm vindicated and was just on the wrong mafia.

You're not taking into consideration the one scenario thats actually true. That I am town and that I genuinely think road may be town (and thus I am actively trying to derail the wagon of a person that is getting steam-rolled).

If/when road flips mafia (assuming he does), I'll worry about defending myself then

anyhow, off to gym, will be back in a bit

His signup post made me think he was town because it was wordy like he was being the whole game which was part of my scum read on him.

I think that its scummy to play the way he is playing. So his home site doesn't look for scum on day 1. Do you think that as scum he would look for scum here? Do you think that he is town because he told us thats the case and then doesn't look for scum?

can you play the game i played with road over night on dorian then tell me what you think of his alignment.