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Old 06-21-2015, 12:38 PM   #2276
DocEspana
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

And we have
road
riki
dorian
bhuber
banks (assuming we don't overlook some stealth wolf)

Five people. Chance we pick wrong 3 times in a row and let both wolves in there walk free? Very high if it's dorian and banks. But no one thinks it's that combo. It is nearly a lock.... but we could screw tgis up by overlooking a stealthy wolf or by being analytical at the expense of decisive.

Maybe I'm getting paranoid on my near deathbed that you guys will go off the rails when I'm dead tomorrow. Maybe. I just want to have a good foundation for closing tgis game out. Ratchet made a game play mistake. I feel like dorian did too but is now smartening up. But I may be overly cautious with him because I can't consistently read him and that worries me.

Bhuber literally has no way to explain his actions strategically except "strategy doesn't matter anymore" or "my wolf partner is somewhere between dorian and road, who were leading the suspicion train before I decided to.blow up and distract everyone." Especially since it frames banks as the other wolf. A red bhuber effectively clears banks (that wasn't a ploy accusation. That was a real attempt) and riki (this whole move serves no purpose if riki is the other wolf. No one is assuming I'm gonna come with this analysis and you don't make this hubbub if you're the number 3 and 4 most likely to die. Which they were. You just stay quiet and hope someone steps in ahead of you before four rounds are up).

And road is just foot in mouth syndrome all day.

You gotta lynch road. I know you do. I should be voting him. Bevause he is highest odds wolf and a few hundred less posts to read per day. But I love the idea of what a red bhuber likely means strategically.

bhuber
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Old 06-21-2015, 12:49 PM   #2277
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by DocEspana View Post
I honestly do think bhuber lynch tells us more. His nutso attack in bank actually says a lot since it literally has to only be a legit belief (and then we should take the bank suspicion mote seriously) or it is that he knew he is in the top 3 and his partner mafiaso is in the top 2. So killing him means the other mafia is almost definitely road or dorian.

The value of a red bhuber is incredible. And the value of a green bhuber is probably the same as mislynching anyone else, possibly a bit more useful.

But good god is the argument for lynching road pretty good. The guy can't get out of his own way logically.
Ninja'd by some explanation, but I already have this typed and feel I should post it anyways. I have been trying to think about what lynching bhuber would tell us now that he's given us more to work with. It's been tough for me, and I'm still trying to draw conclusions about it. Do you mind discussing it further with me, or is that just feeding too much info to one of your top suspects from your perspective?

My down and dirty summary of bhuber since he came back:

pushes Banks, which is not what I anticipated
at first says road looks bad, changes his mind after reading everything, then defends him pretty hard
thinks that, if he's right and road is town, the 2 mafia are probably in the rest of the poe (me/Riki/Banks)
thinks that Riki and Banks are better lynches than me today
otherwise barely mentions anything for or against Riki

You're saying that, if bhuber is mafia, you think he did the obvious thing and the people he put at the top of his lynch-list are town and the ones at the bottom are more likely his teammate? I'm not sure if I agree with that or not, but I definitely don't see why him flipping mafia makes Riki, who he practically ignored today, any more or less likely to be his teammate.
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Old 06-21-2015, 12:55 PM   #2278
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by DocEspana View Post
Would much rather not forget about dorian. Also could not disagree with your banks and bhuber analysis more.
So why do you give Banks a free pass for inexplicably saying that he didn't support the Ratchet-wagon EoD1 because he thought Ratchet's the Cop? When Ratchet hadn't played like the Cop during EoD1 at all, nor does the original reason hold water actually.

Plus bhuber's actually seeming pretty Town but I won't get into that yet, this is a simple thing and it should be realized as damning.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:00 PM   #2279
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Exclamation Vote Count

Votes from post 1743 to post 2278
Night in 6:59:57

---
VotesLynchVoters
4 road dorian78 (29), Riki (93), Slendy (79), fontisian (33)
1 bhuber2010 DocEspana (26)
1 TehBankertin bhuber2010 (54)
1 dorian78 TehBankertin (116)
2 not voting Achromatic (30), road (58)
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:16 PM   #2280
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I feel as if an intelligent wolf doesn't distract from their partner here, rather they go after him hard and hope to use that in their favor later on if they are one of the five suspected. In that way dorian/road makes sense.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:36 PM   #2281
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by Achromatic View Post
I feel as if an intelligent wolf doesn't distract from their partner here, rather they go after him hard and hope to use that in their favor later on if they are one of the five suspected. In that way dorian/road makes sense.
dorian/road's plausible, but the underlined's entering WIFOM-territory, especially with this line-up (and for instance Ratchet getting some heat off of him for tunneling so weirdly).

Mafia!road being asked to create distance between himself and Banks, while mafia!Banks tries to gain points by being 'objective' towards road, is a perfectly valid Scum!MO that could be happening here.

Like, both dorian and Banks (as Mafia) are still restricted by their playstyle; they can't seem too different from how they've interacted thus far. Both have succeeded in seeming consistent, regardless of their affiliations.

Having said that I will ofc also review dorian but I don't want people to give Banks a free pass because the alleged Cop!Ratchet -read is so. Sketchy.

I feel like the threadflow's entering a 'complacency' -phase. People are a bit exhausted, maybe, and the path of least resistance is gaining in appeal.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:45 PM   #2282
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I think there is no problem with employing WIFOM if you think you have a bead. WIFOM is only bad, in my opinion, when it is employed as a defense by someone.

I am not looking at Banks as much as I am looking at how Ratchet talked with Banks. I found it very convincing they were not buddies. I can be wrong, of course, but I don't think I am.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:59 PM   #2283
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Btw, a fun observation from a reread:
Quote:
Originally Posted by dorian78 View Post
This is all fascinating, and I wish I'd thought to go back and look at it sooner. I'm just not used to this kind of info being the prime factor in who is chosen for the nightkill. I think it is also worth looking at from not-bhuber's perspective, and so I double-checked. I don't remember Slendy leaving a clear peek, and if he did, it was with a different word, cause his filter says he first used the word "peek" on day 2. Like someone else mentioned, we know fonti was right, and so I'm leaving her out of the scenarios.

If the team is road/bhuber, they knew Riki was wrong, and they didn't believe Banks. This team is probably also having little to no communication on N1, so I can believe them coming to a choice that doesn't fit what everyone here seems to look for.

If the team is road/Banks, they didn't believe Riki.

If the team is Riki/bhuber, they didn't believe road.

The other teams (Riki/road, Riki/Banks, and bhuber/Banks) all neatly solve everything from this angle (except fonti, who's a constant outlier in every scenario). These are all teams I haven't considered much, and this fact tells me I should start considering them more seriously.
Then Banks responding to this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
No one believed poor fonti apparently.
Actually, the funny thing about the cue-hit is that it also prevents Cop!fontisiac from getting her investigation through, since Mafia would most likely assume she'd check cue?

So whether the Mafiosi believed fonti or not they'd be swatting two flies (ruining N1 for two possible Cops) by hitting cue?
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:00 PM   #2284
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

That also reminds me, BANKS: in addition to your weird Cop!Ratchet-read, I'd also like to hear elaboration on why Riki was your #2 Cop-read?
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:00 PM   #2285
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Exclamation Vote Count

Votes from post 1743 to post 2284
Night in 5:59:57

---
VotesLynchVoters
4 road dorian78 (29), Riki (93), Slendy (82), fontisian (33)
1 bhuber2010 DocEspana (26)
1 TehBankertin bhuber2010 (54)
1 dorian78 TehBankertin (116)
2 not voting Achromatic (32), road (58)
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:02 PM   #2286
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
So whether the Mafiosi believed fonti or not they'd be swatting two flies (ruining N1 for two possible Cops) by hitting cue?
They might've even considered cue the second most likely investigation-target after Ratchet, or possibly even THE most likely, giving even more incentive for that Hit. (Likely investigation target PLUS has been acting like a possible Cop.)
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:00 PM   #2287
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Exclamation Vote Count

Votes from post 1743 to post 2286
Night in 4:59:57

---
VotesLynchVoters
4 road dorian78 (29), Riki (93), Slendy (83), fontisian (33)
1 bhuber2010 DocEspana (26)
1 TehBankertin bhuber2010 (54)
1 dorian78 TehBankertin (116)
2 not voting Achromatic (32), road (58)
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:57 PM   #2288
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

ACHRO: here's some food of thought for you after going through Ratchet's D1.

I notice that the only instances of Ratchet interacting with Banks were R asking about B's readslists (and the first instance of that happened as an echo to my question to Banks wrt to a read of his)

When compared to Riki, who had similar volume and thread presence, there's actually a notable difference. Even while only looking for Ratchet/Banks -interactions from R's filter, I could see Ratchet CONSTANTLY questioning Riki/interacting with him.

For comparison's sake, here's what Ratchet had to say about Riki and Banks after most of the interacting had been done:
Quote:
Riki - Lean Town - I like his questioning, and his arguments make sense even if I don't agree with them. I especially like his reads list, as it genuinely looks like effort has been put into them.
Quote:
TehBankertin - Lean Town, strongest town read. I understand that scum can be very active and it works as a smokescreen, but I can't really hold a possibility that can apply to anyone active against him fairly. I like his questioning, his confidence and his reads, even if we align up rather poorly.
When taking into account the sheer VOLUME of interactions, and I'd predict the quality as well, I find Banks may have gotten away too 'easily' from Ratchet's inquiries.

With Banks the Ratchet-interaction's always either initiated by Banks or is a continuation of the fairly empty reads-elaboration questioning. (Or answering "who will be online end of Phase?" -type of questions. Or echoing a suspicion by Banks as here https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=626)

So upon closer gleaning the Ratchet/Banks-interactions don't seem as convincing as a superficial go-through would, admittedly, imply.

Thoughts, anyone (Achro in particular)?
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:58 PM   #2289
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Sorry, was in a rush so the post may be somewhat messy. But the points should come across well enough.
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:01 PM   #2290
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Exclamation Vote Count

Votes from post 1743 to post 2289
Night in 3:59:52

---
VotesLynchVoters
4 road dorian78 (29), Riki (93), Slendy (85), fontisian (33)
1 bhuber2010 DocEspana (26)
1 TehBankertin bhuber2010 (54)
1 dorian78 TehBankertin (116)
2 not voting Achromatic (32), road (58)
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:11 PM   #2291
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
i don't think this really means anything

iirc banks made a couple of announcement-type posts in game 3, askthepizzaguy made one of those types of posts about putting dead villagers on your ignore list, etc.

like it was in the middle of the day phase and given his general online times he was going to be around for a while after so yeah

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
"simulating being active and productive, but really not contributing with that much" + "showing a bit of double standards"
i think these are decent points but like, if this is it, i don't see why you would be that convinced of your case on him

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
"Voting-pattern eod d1"
He doesnt keep up his seer cover:
i still don't get this part

i'm pretty sure banks and i had like the exact same votes at almost the same times for eod?

i voted dorian with him and then i voted smartbomb with him
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:16 PM   #2292
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
I started the "lack of progression in reads" just after this case. Didnt finish it, but will skip it for now.
i did have some thoughts about this, but i didn't really say much about it because when i followed game 3 i remembered having some difficulty following banks' reads progression in that game too

like i mentioned his progression on hibiki earlier i think, where it kind of felt like he was starting to think hibiki was town every time they talked, but then a couple of posts later he goes back to calling hibiki mafia again

(i haven't actually reread that part so my memory might be wrong)

i mean you played with him in that game so if you disagree that would be interesting to know

anyway, given the above, i don't think i've seen anything strange enough from him to call out yet except for his handling of dorian on d2, which i did call him out for

so if you have more, that would also be good to know
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:17 PM   #2293
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

morning nerds!
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:20 PM   #2294
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
This is some of the posts that triggered me when he spoke to/with me. (first is from late d1 and up to middle-ish d2)

I felt like he tried to interact with me, but not really tried (well i know i have been hard to interact with). Also he kind of softpushed me, then not pushed me, then not wanting to "shoot me" but short after voting for me, and wanting riki to pressure me. But when he gets online he answers a question i have about his progression of his read on me, but still not pressuring me with questions.

I just dont think it looks like the Banks i played with game 3.

I dont know if i can elaborate more on this..
how would you have expected banks to interact with you?
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:22 PM   #2295
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
Well I hope you are scum because then you probably spewed me villager by answer from 1.
wot

how does his answer spew you villager?
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:26 PM   #2296
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
Maybe you think Ratchet would the most obv guy to focus on. Well i didnt.
you need to explain why you thought this though
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:29 PM   #2297
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
We ALWAYS resolve the Rs today, because 1) road's D2 especially with regards to Ratchet was GOD-AWFUL and REEKS of TMI, and
2) both Riki/road and Riki/dorian seem very implausible, thanks to Riki's D1- and D2-voting.

Banks STILL is quite plausibly paired with road, the crux of the matter is very simple: [i]that post by Ratchet DOESN'T give sufficiently strong Cop-vibes. If Banks thought Ratchet was a likely Cop based on that post (not actually plausible), THEN HIS COPDAR MUST'VE BEEN SO FINE-TUNED THAT CUE WAS EVEN HIGHER on his list of possible Cops! Peeks aside, cue consistently left implications of dying soon, having "power" and he intentionally played in an odd manner that would guarantee some degree of suspicion on him.
Can you tlak about riki/dorian and riki/road being unlikely?

I think you said its because riki voted on dorian early. Why does that exclude them of being buddies but me and road are a team when he made a large case on me day two and still apparently thinks I'm scum?

I think cue was never cop just clearly trying to take a bullet he said all those things you're talking about which essentially excludes him from being a cop. I'm actually good at role hunting and know that town people who ARE roles don't say**** like that because its like level 1 wolf kill level. They are subtle. I DID THINK HE WAS THE COP I know its not much but that sort of thing is enough for me on day 1. I tend to clear and scum read people very lightly on day 1s.
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:33 PM   #2298
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
One response: Banks said that if he was Mafia, Ratchet would always be coached to counterclaiming.

Well, that is clearly what road thought as well, since in his last post D2 he URGED RATCHET TO COUNTERCLAIM. Ratchet never did, probably because he's not familiar with this types of Rounds, and we already saw D1 he apparently gets somewhat frozen under pressure. Might've not realized claiming guilty!Achro would've been a great defense for him, even if his EoD1 lacked any Coptells.
Did I sound like that I thought ratchet was going to cc? Read it thinking this.

As scum I would literally write out the claims in scum chat for people he could just cop paste them. I've done it in other games I'd do it again. Do you think he would be nervous/frozen enough not to copy paste something?
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:34 PM   #2299
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
Hey Banks, I don't really care about who's lynched as long as I learn something from it and don't **** with the auto circle. As town in Dorian's position, I'd be all about not dying and just lynching everyone else at this point.
My point is that he has been all about dying THE WHOLE GAME not just today where I agree with what you're saying.
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:36 PM   #2300
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by dorian78 View Post
This is a huge cop-out of an answer.
Thanks! its how i felt.
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