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Old 06-21-2015, 06:29 AM   #2201
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
170 posts is like 1 day.

Road glad you're around

I have 3 questions for you - i dont know if they are possible to answer though, but it is my focus atm:

Why can't you be scum? Have you done anything you wouldnt do as scum?
Why can't you be scum with dorian?
Why can't you be scum with Slendy?

Try answer the last two with focus on person not use 1 as the reason

Are there any interactions, any patterns or likewise that makes it highly unlikely?
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:35 AM   #2202
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

ye im around for approx 1 hour
Then i start the pokergrind and will be like semi-online meaning i can follow the thread and join with short comments/answers/questions
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:37 AM   #2203
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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I have 3 questions for you - i dont know if they are possible to answer though, but it is my focus atm:

Why can't you be scum? Have you done anything you wouldnt do as scum?
Why can't you be scum with dorian?
Why can't you be scum with Slendy?

Try answer the last two with focus on person not use 1 as the reason

Are there any interactions, any patterns or likewise that makes it highly unlikely?
1) As scum I would have told my team n1 to ALWAYS claim cop if they are red checked there is no down side. n1 would have been me preparing everyone's cop claims out so that the knew what to do. ESPECIALLY ratchet who I would assume gets red checked about 40%+ time.

2) Dorian I was trying to get votes on day 1 with riki. I also was on him the next day and kept being told "Banks just cause there was no votes on him EoD doesn't mean that he is mafia" I was pushing this day 2.

3) This is the most likely one considering I didn't really join the Slendy train EoD 1. I also haven't interacted with him that much on day 2. I know that I'm not a wolf.
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:39 AM   #2204
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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ye im around for approx 1 hour
Then i start the pokergrind and will be like semi-online meaning i can follow the thread and join with short comments/answers/questions
Lets read through dorian's filter starting day 1. Make a post once you come to the first one where you feel like Dorian has found a wolf he wants to lynch and quote it in spoilers. So we can't copy each other.

How does that sound?
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:42 AM   #2205
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

f5 do you accept road?
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:42 AM   #2206
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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1) As scum I would have told my team n1 to ALWAYS claim cop if they are red checked there is no down side. n1 would have been me preparing everyone's cop claims out so that the knew what to do. ESPECIALLY ratchet who I would assume gets red checked about 40%+ time.

2) Dorian I was trying to get votes on day 1 with riki. I also was on him the next day and kept being told "Banks just cause there was no votes on him EoD doesn't mean that he is mafia" I was pushing this day 2.

3) This is the most likely one considering I didn't really join the Slendy train EoD 1. I also haven't interacted with him that much on day 2. I know that I'm not a wolf.
Well I hope you are scum because then you probably spewed me villager by answer from 1. Well in so far the thingy-theorem holds up (or he prolly learned it from someone else, but he tought it to me) - meaning scum wouldnt lie unless they have to.

I dont really think the d1 push on dorian was that strong. I mean, you could have pushed him harder if you were sure. Softpushes on d1 doesnt clear anyone. I'm gonna look at d2 progression and see how much you pushed him
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:44 AM   #2207
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Well I hope you are scum because then you probably spewed me villager by answer from 1. Well in so far the thingy-theorem holds up (or he prolly learned it from someone else, but he tought it to me) - meaning scum wouldnt lie unless they have to.

I dont really think the d1 push on dorian was that strong. I mean, you could have pushed him harder if you were sure. Softpushes on d1 doesnt clear anyone. I'm gonna look at d2 progression and see how much you pushed him
Read my thing please.
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:44 AM   #2208
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Lets read through dorian's filter starting day 1. Make a post once you come to the first one where you feel like Dorian has found a wolf he wants to lynch and quote it in spoilers. So we can't copy each other.

How does that sound?
Well, fine, but if it takes more than 10-15 minutes i drop it, because im more curious about your d2 as of now. how do you post spoilers?
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:45 AM   #2209
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

And easiest way to filter? by putting everyone else on ignorelist right?
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:45 AM   #2210
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Well, fine, but if it takes more than 10-15 minutes i drop it, because im more curious about your d2 as of now. how do you post spoilers?
just highlight whatever it is then hit the "SP" thing under the advancedoptions.
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:45 AM   #2211
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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And easiest way to filter? by putting everyone else on ignorelist right?
Search thread the type in the name of whoever you want to filter.
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:46 AM   #2212
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

If it takes more than 10-15 minutes what does that say about dorian? :P

I'm off to find mine.
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:52 AM   #2213
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

The first post of dorians that is anything game solvey. He makes a huge post about how smartbomb is mafia. Tell me if anyone thinks he REALLY believes this is the case.

Spoiler:
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:57 AM   #2214
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Spoiler:


Sry forgot we had to stop after the first post. Actually the second quoted post is prolly not "really want to lynch"
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Old 06-21-2015, 06:59 AM   #2215
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Hmm I felt that his read on Smartbomb was kind of genuine and he believed it. But I find it weird that he just a few pages earlier writes that he does not like making strong reads on d1 and the puff, he finds this case on Smartbomb.

At the time he wrote it I felt it was kind of construted, but I believed him when he said it was his style.

However when reading this d1 I think you and him are more likely scumteam. You didnt interact that much and you ended up sponging his SmartBomb vote (i mean, you did have him as scumread yourself, but it just fits the world of you two being scum with Ratchet)
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Old 06-21-2015, 07:02 AM   #2216
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Spoiler:


Sry forgot we had to stop after the first post. Actually the second quoted post is prolly not "really want to lynch"
Glad you kept going. Reading his posts do they sound like someone who is trying to figure out peoples alignments or describe someone as town because of something. Lots of defending and making excuses.

My full case will be tomorrow.

I invite everyone to perform the exercise me and road just did.

Do the same for others in the game and see who does what. Read cue/MSU/smart's filter docs see how long it takes them to think someone is scummy and push on them.
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Old 06-21-2015, 07:03 AM   #2217
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Hmm I felt that his read on Smartbomb was kind of genuine and he believed it. But I find it weird that he just a few pages earlier writes that he does not like making strong reads on d1 and the puff, he finds this case on Smartbomb.

At the time he wrote it I felt it was kind of construted, but I believed him when he said it was his style.

However when reading this d1 I think you and him are more likely scumteam. You didnt interact that much and you ended up sponging his SmartBomb vote (i mean, you did have him as scumread yourself, but it just fits the world of you two being scum with Ratchet)
Cool so help me bus him today then.
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Old 06-21-2015, 07:03 AM   #2218
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I'm going to bed. Please read what me and road did. Thanks!
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Old 06-21-2015, 07:07 AM   #2219
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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I see this, and will get to it when I reevaluate everyone. Gah! I also see the 3x3 request. I can't keep up fast enough. I'll include that too. First, my thoughts on end of day and cue as the nightkill.

The vote-swapping that happened at the end of day - sweet mother of all that's holy. I've spent all morning reading over it twice to really form an idea of what actually happened, and I need to write it out so I don't forget and can use this a reference point.

5 people were on MSU before we started looking elsewhere. I think it was bhuber, Banks, Riki, smartbomb, and Ratchet. Riki and Banks move over to me, road and fontisian solidify on cue, Achromatic starts the slendy push, and we wind up with a 3-way tie between us. Slendy starts the push on Ratchet and pretty much everyone voting Slendy is so convinced by it that rather than vote for him they'd rather vote with him. In the meantime, Banks and Riki also decide that, since the votes on me aren't gaining traction, they'd rather vote with me on SmartBomb. Ratchet winds up replacing me in the tie, which is eventually decided by cue, now confirmed innocent.

Wow. Just wow. The biggest takeaway I got from this is that there was a very, very easy slide from Slendy to Ratchet, and that lots of people here think that moving your vote around a bunch at the last second is either a good way to create confusion or a good way to test people for very quick reactions when they don't have time to plan out what they're going to say. Both are true, and thus it's a null tell, but I vastly prefer the less confusing route - trying to catch people in quick reactions is difficult, at least for me.

I was quite surprised to see cue as the nightkill. Typically the 3rd place for the lynch has enough suspicion that the mafia wants them alive. Maybe they felt too few people were willing to lynch him to ever get a mislynch?

I see several people thinking it was a seer hunt, but I don't see anything from cue as a clear enough hint at a scan that would justify that line of thought. Then again, this whole leaving hints at scans thing is brand new to me. Still, I disagree that it was absolutely a seer hunt, and won't be considering that when reevaluating. I think seer hunt would have come to one of many other conclusions before cue.

In many regards, cue was a brilliant choice, because he kept saying he'd be much more open about everything when he was in danger of being lynched, and killing him means he never did it, and we get quite a bit less info.

It's ironic, because watching the end of day shenanigans, I felt like I finally understood cue. He's the kind of player that does whatever crazy, unexpected, illogical thing you can imagine, consequences-be-damned, to see how people react to it. I've seen people try that before, and because the risk of getting lynched for it was so high, it was almost always tried by town. I doubt I could have been convinced to vote for cue today.

In fact, I think a lot of people were at a point where they wouldn't vote for cue, and who said that on day 1 is definitely going to factor into my reevaluations. They're up next.
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Ok. I've weighed over the possibilities in my mind. Here's the condensed version:

MSU is vanilla town: claiming cop like this is such horrible play, not considering this option

MSU is cop: makes sense, especially if he won't be around for end of day (have fun at Book of Mormon, it's hilarious!) and was worried about being lynched, which I think was a possibility


MSU is mafia: he's still worried about being lynched while afk, decides to go balls-to-the-wall and draw out the real cop's counterclaim. If the real cop stays hidden, we lynch Ratchet, and either MSU has bussed a teammate, or he's wrong, and he gets lynched or cc'ed the next day.

I think it's more likely MSU is for real, especially since I don't think MSU and Ratchet are scum together.

RatchetOPB
But I must admit I would normally consider these two posts as being villagery.
1) Maybe this is like a lol-read, but would scum write this about his own choice? It would be a little bit sick to do. It is mostly the choice of words. "brilliant"

2) I think thinking of MSU maybe claiming as scum/VT is roleneutral, but writing a post about is probably villagery, as the scum would be more afraid of people speculating about the reason for thinking those thoughts.. idk

It is a bit thin but i just thought of it when ISO'ing him
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Old 06-21-2015, 07:09 AM   #2220
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Cool so help me bus him today then.
I might do that. If you follow this through I have some thoughts about your alignment, however will not post them yet. gn
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Old 06-21-2015, 07:15 AM   #2221
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Of all the people in the game still remaining, who left clear, concise peeks on d1?

Off the top of my head I know that riki peeked me.

dorian78 - did you leave a clear peek?
Slendy - did you leave a clear peek?
fontisian - did you leave a clear peek?
TehBankertin - did you leave a clear peek?
Achromatic - did you leave a clear peek?
road - did you leave a clear peek?
Yes, but it was intentionally subtle -- the 'wow such Town' at the last minute on Achro, while the Votes were still 3-3-3-3, was it. Repeated it D2, then abandoned the strategy due to cold feet and MSU's claim.
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Old 06-21-2015, 07:30 AM   #2222
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Road
Dorian
bhuber
riki
Big gaping chasm
Banky
Small valley
Everyone else (if there is a wolf in here, you will literally win because of a flawless performance day 1)
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Old 06-21-2015, 07:32 AM   #2223
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
Reading cue for SHC is a good place to start.

Dorian why do you think that me and riki were the only two people pushing on you and couldn't get anyone else's votes EoD?

In your reads you have him listed as town and myself as town. What was scum doing?
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Why is the only way I could have killed cue assuming I'm scum is by night kill? All I would simply have to do is be like "you know what fonti I have reconsidered on cue. OR I could have voted him when II was defending ratchet to "save ratchet" ez game ez rares if I was a wolf.
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So I read the mega thread for this and saw dorian's windy as **** confirmation post. I kinda want to revisit my read on him because I thinking he is the most likely scum until literally just now. Maybe thats just how he talks.
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I'm going to spend some time doing something that I wanted to do yesterday. I'll be doing it on the side while staying in the thread.

MSU my 3x3 atm:

Kill Doc, bhuber, ratchet. No order or preference (also hope you and road are standing behind them)
Save: Riki, fonti, achro. This is in preference order.
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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
Worth that was an amazing joke.

dorian

What kind of world is it that EoD this dude is getting no hop on votes from anyone?
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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
So this is talking about Ratchet being town.

1) I think dorian especially form you should look worse simply because a lot of EoD stuff happened and he was mainly glossed over. Do you think that dorian's wagon would be more apt to take off if he were town or a wolf? Was there 0 wolves up for vote on day 1?

2) I can see that you would potentially look worse but not necessarily that bad considering that you were not really a huge wagon at the time. I think that you don't get ruled out of things just for being wrong on someone day 1. I know that the game is not won in a day like everyone else. Do you think the scenario where he is town is likely?

3) I think this is silly because you're saying I as a wolf had two options of town to vote on EoD and instead started a CFD on a 3rd town for fun and to look scummier?
This is some of Banks' post on d2. I tried to focus on his explanation that he pushed dorian on d2.

It is important to note that he started voting me on d2, then votes msu twice and then voted dorian before the MSU-claim.

I dont think this is a very strong push/pressure if any - and i cant see why this excludes them as being scum/scum.

Anyways, gotta go. please hit me up with any questions and i hopefully will be able to answer shortly (depending on how many tables i have running).
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Old 06-21-2015, 07:33 AM   #2224
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by DocEspana View Post
Road
Dorian
bhuber
riki
Big gaping chasm
Banky
Small valley
Everyone else (if there is a wolf in here, you will literally win because of a flawless performance day 1)
What is this ?
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Old 06-21-2015, 07:36 AM   #2225
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by DocEspana View Post
Road
Dorian
bhuber
riki
Big gaping chasm
Banky
Small valley
Everyone else (if there is a wolf in here, you will literally win because of a flawless performance day 1)

Wonder if this means I should change my vote. I almost feel like I feel most comfortable with dorian because I came to him purely on instinct, not from watching you all make your cases (road has a stronger wolf case by a bit). I like instinct.

I also feel like bhuber tells us the most at death. By a wide margin. If he goes red then it basically clears riki. And (iirc) totally implicates road. And if he is green in think everyone has already figured out that riki road and dorian only work in certain combos which probably clears one of them.

Of course I actually am NOT giving banker a pass. But he is a ton more innocent appearing than the others. But he shouldn't be lumped in eith those who played day 1 pure villager. He didn't. He just didn't get smeared by ratchet association. Which is a big deal, but iany evetything. Please don't get tunnel vision.

Strongly contemplating bhuber. I love his play today (saying it again) but he tells so much more strategically tHan anyone else does and he is definitely not a *bad* target. Even if the case for others is better.
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