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Old 06-21-2015, 02:28 AM   #2151
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I think the fact today that stands out to me most is that road has not placed his vote. He is the only person aside from me who has not placed his vote. That's telling to me.

By the way I read your Banker theory bhuber but strongly disagree with the logic behind it. I didn't let Banker sideswipe you, but I think your logic is unsound mostly because proof is the pudding. Our glorious cop didn't peek. There was never a certainty that the real cop would peek, so your meta can probably be safely tucked away. All a villager has to do to correctly peek is to win the 75% chance lottery. If scum were to use that for cop hunting they would be very stupid.
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:30 AM   #2152
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

My biggest problem with road early one was his way of clearing villagers when the game first started - he was clearing people and awarding villa points in like ridiculous manners IMO (basically I think he was clearing people WAY too lightly early on and assigning villager point in a really haphazard manner for a townie to do it). It may have played into why a lot of his reads were wrong (if he is a townie).

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
MSU/Ratchet. I dont think you two will end up as wagons. I'm quite sure I have found a scum. And even though i have to bust my cover, I'm quite sure this is the best timing - I would have liked to pressure him before presenting the case, but as i'm not having that much time and he havent been online since i got online, i'm just going to post it, and let others comment on it. I'm prolly quite out of sync with this d2, so i could be missing something, but then i expect ppl to comment on why i'm wrong. But really, I'm not wrong. I feel as certain as I have been about any scumread lately

I believe Banks is scum

I believe he is scum because of the following reasons:

- He is showing some general wolf tendencies
-- a lack of progression in reads
-- Doing some awkward work
-- simulating being active and productive, but really not contributing with that much
-- showing a bit of double standards

The EOD d1
-- His votingpattern
-- Him not really keeping up his cop-cover (at least in the way i would assume he would do)

Does not look like the game 3 we played together
And my personal focus

--He fakes a lot of interest in wanting to interact with me, but not really doing it.

And yes. This is not something i usually do, but Im certain enough, and i know i dont have much to lose (well i could be wrong and that would suck, but the case is important nevertheless)

I'm going to start multiquoting to show my thoughts
That being said, I have an enormously hard time seeing what the benefit is to this post if road is scum. Basically him and banks were kind of just happy-go-lucky for d1 and d2 and then he flips on banks on a dime.

I kind of like the fact that it seems painful for him to drop his cover but he genuinely seems to believe he has a legitimate case against banks. This seems like a really hard post to fake as mafia (cue all the haters who say it was faked ).
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:31 AM   #2153
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I guess that singular post makes me think that a banks/road team is like highly improbable.
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:32 AM   #2154
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Achromatic View Post
I think the fact today that stands out to me most is that road has not placed his vote. He is the only person aside from me who has not placed his vote. That's telling to me.

By the way I read your Banker theory bhuber but strongly disagree with the logic behind it. I didn't let Banker sideswipe you, but I think your logic is unsound mostly because proof is the pudding. Our glorious cop didn't peek. There was never a certainty that the real cop would peek, so your meta can probably be safely tucked away. All a villager has to do to correctly peek is to win the 75% chance lottery. If scum were to use that for cop hunting they would be very stupid.
Not really sure where you are going with the second part of this. I wasnt using the peek line to insinuate that Banks is mafia. The peek line was merely to show that its clear there is a number of mafia amongst the peeks/the peeks were highly likely to be incorrect based on the fact that the cue kill was clearly a calculated risk (IMO).
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:33 AM   #2155
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Achromatic View Post
I think the fact today that stands out to me most is that road has not placed his vote. He is the only person aside from me who has not placed his vote. That's telling to me.

By the way I read your Banker theory bhuber but strongly disagree with the logic behind it. I didn't let Banker sideswipe you, but I think your logic is unsound mostly because proof is the pudding. Our glorious cop didn't peek. There was never a certainty that the real cop would peek, so your meta can probably be safely tucked away. All a villager has to do to correctly peek is to win the 75% chance lottery. If scum were to use that for cop hunting they would be very stupid.
What makes you think mafia mindset today would be to not be pushing a world?
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:34 AM   #2156
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
Not really sure where you are going with the second part of this. I wasnt using the peek line to insinuate that Banks is mafia. The peek line was merely to show that its clear there is a number of mafia amongst the peeks/the peeks were highly likely to be incorrect based on the fact that the cue kill was clearly a calculated risk (IMO).
Oh is that what you were saying achro? If so I don't think thats what bhuber was saying either.
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:36 AM   #2157
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Okay then I misread.

Please restate why Banker is scum
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:44 AM   #2158
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Okay, finished the road re-read and I am pretty sure I dont want him lynched - before I really commit to that, I just want 1 town game from him to see if he assigns reads like that to people early on.
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:51 AM   #2159
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Okay then I misread.

Please restate why Banker is scum
I've spent the last like 7 hours reading - and a solid 7 hours before that all within the last 24 hours.

I need a break. I think I am starting to read in circles tbh because of the highly manipulative nature of this game.

Basically I think there is a very good chance that one of riki/banks is scum - this is coming from a purely 100% objective standpoint.

Between both of them voting bomb (and effectively not voting ratchet) and both of them being involved in the peek situation (and both of whom were passed over for cue), I would surmise that there is a very high chance that one is mafia.

The problem is that I am experiencing information overload right now with both having a billion posts.

Fortunately I have another 7 hours to waste again tomorrow to try and figure it out. From there, pinning an exact wolf team together seems somewhat difficult.

If banks is town, I feel that a maifa team of dorian/riki makes the most sense.

If banks is mafia, then his plausible mafia brothers would be either road and/or riki (he's kind of forced to vote someone other than road (i.e. dorian) if road is his mafia brother because otherwise he finds himself in a bleak situation).

_____

Unfortunately there a number of others who I have basically ignored for the sake of time, tonight. Namely you (achro), slendy and fonti. I think most of these people are consensus town - which is probably pretty dangerous if one of them is a deep cover mafia but generally they wont be caught until must lynch anyways.
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:53 AM   #2160
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Anyhow, im gonna take a break for a bit, I might be up for like 1-2 more hours but I will probably post if I see something amazeballs.

Love you all, night.
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:55 AM   #2161
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I think the thing to consider about your two points is the following:

1) Dorian was voting smartbomb with them, thus among viable scum candidates he is in the same boat. You and road were not here at deadline, so if you are scum you could not have helped ratchet. Makes the 'well they voted smartbomb' point kind of pointless to discuss. Everyone who is suspected either voted smartbomb or wasn't here to do so. It's null.

2) the peek situation is what I was trying to bust in my earlier notation. The peek situation, to me, 100% does not matter at all in finding scum here. I honestly believe that.
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:02 AM   #2162
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by Achromatic View Post

1) Dorian was voting smartbomb with them, thus among viable scum candidates he is in the same boat. You and road were not here at deadline, so if you are scum you could not have helped ratchet. Makes the 'well they voted smartbomb' point kind of pointless to discuss. Everyone who is suspected either voted smartbomb or wasn't here to do so. It's null.
Correct, but of course I am posting from my POV - which currently holds that I dont think that road is necessarily scum (which you seem to think). I could be wrong (mostly I want to see an old game of his before I commit to not voting him for this phase)...and of course I know I am not scum.

And your observation about dorian is correct - so while admitting that he would be playing a good mafia game is merely a compliment, it isnt ceding that I am not considering him in all my game solves. I think he's plausibly just as guilty as riki/banks in the sense that they all "appeared" to be saving ratchet. Obviously at least 1 of them is town so I know this isnt the case (perhaps even two of them) - discerning which one (or both if both scum voted smart) to save ratchet is the hard part.

Since, for the sake of this example, I am assuming that you, fonti and slendy are all town, it makes the most objective sense to essentially lynch from riki/banks/dorian. Tomorrow is likely where I try to figure out which one I want

(part of why i slowed down on banks was merely because he suspects dorian and thinks road is town...so if there is a chance banks is town, I want to hear what he has to say about dorian).


Quote:

2) the peek situation is what I was trying to bust in my earlier notation. The peek situation, to me, 100% does not matter at all in finding scum here. I honestly believe that.
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:04 AM   #2163
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

oops, second part got cut off - I think the peek situation is actually a fairly critical piece of information - but misinterpreting it can leave to dangerous and faulty assumptions - which is why I havent exactly extrapolated any definitive information from it yet.

I am not entirely sure it is possibly to objectively glean anything from it just yet - perhaps there will be later. So I guess I disagree that it 100% does not matter, I just am not able to prove anything substantial with it yet (maybe once I spend more time thinking about the mechanics of it tomorrow ill come up with something useful )
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:07 AM   #2164
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Do you find me and road to be the most likely scum, achro?

What if we're both town (because thats the point I am directly alluding to at the moment)?

It appears you think banks is town as well?

I guess I want to know who you think the plausible mafia teams could be assuming all three of me/road/banks are town? Or if you even think thats possible to begin with?
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:10 AM   #2165
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Also, it would be pretty hilarious if that was genuinely a scum slip by dorian (the part where he said he wasnt playing amazing when I insinuated he would be having a good scum game).
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:10 AM   #2166
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
Okay, finished the road re-read and I am pretty sure I dont want him lynched - before I really commit to that, I just want 1 town game from him to see if he assigns reads like that to people early on.
Champs game 3 first page of this thread first post.
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:10 AM   #2167
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I have all but stated today, given how I said I liked your content even if I disagreed, that I believe the scum team is Road/Dorian.

If you three are all town it must be Dorian/Riki.
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:11 AM   #2168
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

The tinfoil in me thinks that dorian probably saw my post calling him out but didnt really feel like addressing it because he had just said he was going to bed
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:15 AM   #2169
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
I've spent the last like 7 hours reading - and a solid 7 hours before that all within the last 24 hours.

I need a break. I think I am starting to read in circles tbh because of the highly manipulative nature of this game.

Basically I think there is a very good chance that one of riki/banks is scum - this is coming from a purely 100% objective standpoint.

Between both of them voting bomb (and effectively not voting ratchet) and both of them being involved in the peek situation (and both of whom were passed over for cue), I would surmise that there is a very high chance that one is mafia.

The problem is that I am experiencing information overload right now with both having a billion posts.

Fortunately I have another 7 hours to waste again tomorrow to try and figure it out. From there, pinning an exact wolf team together seems somewhat difficult.

If banks is town, I feel that a maifa team of dorian/riki makes the most sense.

If banks is mafia, then his plausible mafia brothers would be either road and/or riki (he's kind of forced to vote someone other than road (i.e. dorian) if road is his mafia brother because otherwise he finds himself in a bleak situation).

_____

Unfortunately there a number of others who I have basically ignored for the sake of time, tonight. Namely you (achro), slendy and fonti. I think most of these people are consensus town - which is probably pretty dangerous if one of them is a deep cover mafia but generally they wont be caught until must lynch anyways.

Dorian/riki moderately hard sale imo because me and riki were on dorian a bunch day 1 at EoD.
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:16 AM   #2170
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
Champs game 3 first page of this thread first post.
Thanks, I merely skimmed the first few pages of that game but it seems there is at least some precedent for road handing townie points/leans like that early on.
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Old 06-21-2015, 03:17 AM   #2171
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
Dorian/riki moderately hard sale imo because me and riki were on dorian a bunch day 1 at EoD.
I guess I am struggling to see who, from your perspective, makes sense as a mafia team.

Dorian/x where I dont see the x.
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:00 AM   #2172
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Exclamation Vote Count

Votes from post 1743 to post 2171
Night in 15:59:57

---
VotesLynchVoters
4 road dorian78 (22), Riki (84), Slendy (61), fontisian (26)
2 dorian78 DocEspana (18), TehBankertin (99)
1 TehBankertin bhuber2010 (53)
2 not voting Achromatic (27), road (26)
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:15 AM   #2173
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

yawn

i iso'd achro out of fear that we might be getting lazy/complacent but I still think he's town

okay, bed for reals now
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:38 AM   #2174
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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I guess I am struggling to see who, from your perspective, makes sense as a mafia team.

Dorian/x where I dont see the x.
I don't know the team. I think that scummy people are scummy on their own.

I think some teams make more sense than others.
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Old 06-21-2015, 04:38 AM   #2175
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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yawn

i iso'd achro out of fear that we might be getting lazy/complacent but I still think he's town

okay, bed for reals now
his filter is really short.
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