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Old 06-21-2015, 12:46 AM   #2126
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
Not gonna multiquote cause would be Too Painful but I'm gonna show what has happened in this game so far from the perspective of Red!Banks with teammates Ratchet and road.

-case for Banks and road as teammates-
I find this case entirely believable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
I feel like doc has said a lot in his 15 posts. Not the same feeling from dorian.
Doc is talking about general strategies for very high-level theory reading of people in these games. A lot of what he says does makes sense to me, but these concepts are simply so far beyond the kinds of games I play. I'm discussing things in the way that are familiar to me.

I have not had a lot of insights to add that haven't been already said by someone else before me. Usually Slendy. When I see something that hasn't already been said that I think may add some value, I point it out, but I see no point in rehashing what has already been said better by others, and usually by someone who is much more trusted by everyone else.
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Old 06-21-2015, 12:56 AM   #2127
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
Going to be a bit selfish but can you address the underlined. You're referring to road if he flipped mafia correct?
Yes, I am referring to if road flips mafia. Watching the interactions between road and Riki, especially day 2 before MSU's claim, make me think that they are unlikely to be on a team together. Riki may have been more vocal about it than I was on day 2, but we more or less took the same approach and had the same mindset. I know I'm town, and if Riki's not, he's done a phenomenal job of mimicking my thought process. Maybe I'm severely underestimating Riki's scum game, but I am content with this pair as low possibility for now.

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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
I wasn't voting anyone. I haven't talked a lot about my suspects except in general sense the MSU reveal and me reading ratchet for spew (which I haven't posted a real synopsis of.

The only way we lose a game like this is complacency. Maybe I have a reason for voting dorian maybe I don't. Maybe i think hes lock clear or lock wolf. I obviously will expand more later but I want to have the vote there for a reason.
I find Banks's vote on me entirely unsurprising. He has more he wants to learn from people's reactions to it, or at least is pretending to be looking for something, so I will stay out of the way and comment when he's done.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:01 AM   #2128
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
Since Banks feels as if road is VT (at least according to his most recent reads),

the only plausible scum teams from his POV I think would be

bhuber/riki
bhuber/dorian
or dorian/riki

So if you're VT, and you think there is a legitimate shot that I am VT, then the scum team from your perspective should be something like riki/dorian exactly?

Would that be a fair assessment?
You think so? Interesting go on.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:01 AM   #2129
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
I was also working towards a n2 slendy green based on his EoD + activity the next day he felt viable, I did actually leave that after MSU claimed in case he rescinded.
Again - little experience with this setup and the whole fakepeek strategy. Can someone other than Banks walk me through why any vanilla town claims Slendy as town for their fake N1 check? From my perspective, it seems safe in the sense that it had a decent chance of being accurate after watching Slendy's day 2 activity, but Slendy also seems to me like an unlikely, poor choice for the actual cop to have made during N1, thus making it pretty ineffective cover.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:06 AM   #2130
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

1183 would have been brutal of dorian to write about Rachet before Rachet was peeked scum...

That would be some serious bussing out of the gate on d1.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:08 AM   #2131
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by dorian78 View Post
Yes, I am referring to if road flips mafia. Watching the interactions between road and Riki, especially day 2 before MSU's claim, make me think that they are unlikely to be on a team together. Riki may have been more vocal about it than I was on day 2, but we more or less took the same approach and had the same mindset. I know I'm town, and if Riki's not, he's done a phenomenal job of mimicking my thought process. Maybe I'm severely underestimating Riki's scum game, but I am content with this pair as low possibility for now.



I find Banks's vote on me entirely unsurprising. He has more he wants to learn from people's reactions to it, or at least is pretending to be looking for something, so I will stay out of the way and comment when he's done.
I was more curious why you thought me and bhuber look worse.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:14 AM   #2132
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
1183 would have been brutal of dorian to write about Rachet before Rachet was peeked scum...

That would be some serious bussing out of the gate on d1.
err post 1183 here was written by Slendy did you mean something else?
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:17 AM   #2133
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by dorian78 View Post
Again - little experience with this setup and the whole fakepeek strategy. Can someone other than Banks walk me through why any vanilla town claims Slendy as town for their fake N1 check? From my perspective, it seems safe in the sense that it had a decent chance of being accurate after watching Slendy's day 2 activity, but Slendy also seems to me like an unlikely, poor choice for the actual cop to have made during N1, thus making it pretty ineffective cover.
What do you think about it? Like say you think it doesn't make sense what does taht say about my alignment?
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:20 AM   #2134
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Hmm, thats the correct post but for some reason I mis-read and thought it was dorian that had made it (I am currently ISO'ing/filtering for dorians posts).
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:28 AM   #2135
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
riki - bhuber
fonisian - doc
TehBankertin - riki
achro - no peek
road - banks

dorian78 - did you leave a clear peek?
Slendy - did you leave a clear peek?

Still havent heard from these two but for the sake of discussion, I'll allude to my thoughts now (I have slendy as a pretty hard town lean so I am not as concerned about him although I still think it would be useful to know 100% if either of them left explicit peeks).

Since we know that cue did not leave an explicit peek, it means the mafia took a calculated risk in killing him over a number of players that DID leave explicit peeks. This means that their peeks were wrong or the mafia didnt not believe them enough to glean that that person was indeed the real cop.

A level 0 read would therefore be that the following people look bad/didnt have believable cop cover IF indeed their claims were correct: riki, tehbankertin, and roads.

I know riki's claim was correct, so the wolves either didnt believe it or riki is scum.

TehBankertin not dying alludes to the fact that his peek was wrong, or he is mafia.

Roads peek was wrong, or he is mafia.

____


I'll get back to this point in a second.
This is all fascinating, and I wish I'd thought to go back and look at it sooner. I'm just not used to this kind of info being the prime factor in who is chosen for the nightkill. I think it is also worth looking at from not-bhuber's perspective, and so I double-checked. I don't remember Slendy leaving a clear peek, and if he did, it was with a different word, cause his filter says he first used the word "peek" on day 2. Like someone else mentioned, we know fonti was right, and so I'm leaving her out of the scenarios.

If the team is road/bhuber, they knew Riki was wrong, and they didn't believe Banks. This team is probably also having little to no communication on N1, so I can believe them coming to a choice that doesn't fit what everyone here seems to look for.

If the team is road/Banks, they didn't believe Riki.

If the team is Riki/bhuber, they didn't believe road.

The other teams (Riki/road, Riki/Banks, and bhuber/Banks) all neatly solve everything from this angle (except fonti, who's a constant outlier in every scenario). These are all teams I haven't considered much, and this fact tells me I should start considering them more seriously.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:30 AM   #2136
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by dorian78 View Post
This is all fascinating, and I wish I'd thought to go back and look at it sooner. I'm just not used to this kind of info being the prime factor in who is chosen for the nightkill. I think it is also worth looking at from not-bhuber's perspective, and so I double-checked. I don't remember Slendy leaving a clear peek, and if he did, it was with a different word, cause his filter says he first used the word "peek" on day 2. Like someone else mentioned, we know fonti was right, and so I'm leaving her out of the scenarios.

If the team is road/bhuber, they knew Riki was wrong, and they didn't believe Banks. This team is probably also having little to no communication on N1, so I can believe them coming to a choice that doesn't fit what everyone here seems to look for.

If the team is road/Banks, they didn't believe Riki.

If the team is Riki/bhuber, they didn't believe road.

The other teams (Riki/road, Riki/Banks, and bhuber/Banks) all neatly solve everything from this angle (except fonti, who's a constant outlier in every scenario). These are all teams I haven't considered much, and this fact tells me I should start considering them more seriously.
No one believed poor fonti apparently.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:35 AM   #2137
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
Just for people wondering if anyone should be SHC from the cue kill, the answer is probably not.

As someone alluded to earlier, Rachet obviously had TMI with regards to the kill and the bolded is probably fairly close to the truth.
This question for anyone really - how likely do you find scum-me to ask Ratchet this question and prompt this answer? Despite Achromatic at one point calling it a softball question.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:45 AM   #2138
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Well, I just finished filtering dorian because he was one of the three still living people on the smartbomb wagon.

All I have to say is if that guy is mafia, well, damn - dude is pretty good at it

He is extraordinarily methodical by nature and after reading all of his posts, I would merely be in awe if he's mafia.

So yeah.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:49 AM   #2139
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I am going to filter/ISO road one more time.

I thought the way road came out hard at Banks today was good and almost white knighted him for it - I also saw dorian suggest that it was plausible that banks/road could be a team and paused for a moment (especially now that banks is voting dorian and banks has a town read on road).

I am still unsure how riki plays into this, if at all. As I just mentioned, I want to ISO road again and re-collect my thoughts on him. If I come away with a VT on him, I think it is strategically and objectively soundest to lynch between Banks and Riki (probably banks) - both of whom were on Smart's wagon and both of whom didnt seem to fond lynching rachet.

Basically its just going to be miserable to re-read both of them since they both have like 400+ posts? So I've been putting that off till now mostly
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:52 AM   #2140
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Ive mostly ignored slendy for a while now primarily because he came #hard at rachet on d1 and again on d2 (prior to any sort of cop claim).

Its possible I am giving him way too much credit for a bus but I'll re-evaluate him AFTER, riki/banks if I am still unable to point a firm finger at either one of them.

(same goes for achro really - I may be giving his rachet vote on d1 too much credit - and thus am ignoring him for far too long but I think objectively speaking - its wiser to look at/give more face time to the people that actually voted smart vs the people who actually voted rachet).
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:53 AM   #2141
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
I was more curious why you thought me and bhuber look worse.
The simplistic answer is that you're the other 2 suspects me and everyone else are considering. I suppose you're right, whether it actually reflects badly on you both would depend a lot on going back and rereading interactions. Probably not my greatest logic moment ever, but as I was weighing the arguments for/against possible suspects, anything that was making some of them look better automatically was making the others look worse.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
What do you think about it? Like say you think it doesn't make sense what does taht say about my alignment?
It says to me that you aren't all that concerned with your fake cop cover being believed. Which still doesn't make too much sense to me for either alignment. I suppose it's slightly more indicative of vanilla town, cause if scum ever needs to actually use that claim, they most certainly want it to be believed, but I definitely would still appreciate others' input on this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
Well, I just finished filtering dorian because he was one of the three still living people on the smartbomb wagon.

All I have to say is if that guy is mafia, well, damn - dude is pretty good at it

He is extraordinarily methodical by nature and after reading all of his posts, I would merely be in awe if he's mafia.

So yeah.
Thanks, but I'm really not that amazing. And with that, it's off to sleep for me.
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:56 AM   #2142
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Thanks, but I'm really not that amazing. And with that, it's off to sleep for me.
So what you're telling me is that you really are scum ?
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:57 AM   #2143
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
Well, I just finished filtering dorian because he was one of the three still living people on the smartbomb wagon.

All I have to say is if that guy is mafia, well, damn - dude is pretty good at it

He is extraordinarily methodical by nature and after reading all of his posts, I would merely be in awe if he's mafia.

So yeah.
Could you quote some of the posts you find make him methodical and talk about why this methodicalness makes him unlikely to be a wolf?
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Old 06-21-2015, 01:59 AM   #2144
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
Could you quote some of the posts you find make him methodical and talk about why this methodicalness makes him unlikely to be a wolf?
Being methodical doesn't necessarily make him town - in fact, being as objective in nature as possible as scum is generally a decent way to blend in - I am just saying that he's doing a damn good job of it if he's scum.

Perhaps you could enlighten me as to why you think he's scum? Who would his next likeliest partner be if not me?
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:00 AM   #2145
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Exclamation Vote Count

Votes from post 1743 to post 2144
Night in 17:59:57

---
VotesLynchVoters
4 road dorian78 (22), Riki (84), Slendy (61), fontisian (26)
2 dorian78 DocEspana (18), TehBankertin (91)
1 TehBankertin bhuber2010 (39)
2 not voting Achromatic (23), road (26)
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:05 AM   #2146
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by dorian78 View Post
The simplistic answer is that you're the other 2 suspects me and everyone else are considering. I suppose you're right, whether it actually reflects badly on you both would depend a lot on going back and rereading interactions. Probably not my greatest logic moment ever, but as I was weighing the arguments for/against possible suspects, anything that was making some of them look better automatically was making the others look worse.



It says to me that you aren't all that concerned with your fake cop cover being believed. Which still doesn't make too much sense to me for either alignment. I suppose it's slightly more indicative of vanilla town, cause if scum ever needs to actually use that claim, they most certainly want it to be believed, but I definitely would still appreciate others' input on this.



Thanks, but I'm really not that amazing. And with that, it's off to sleep for me.
Do you think that my play has been objectively scummy outside of the associations you have with ratchet and presumptuous road flip?

Also slendy was an EoD wagon I would check him or you as real cop. I dont know if I said this earlier I think I was going to but not sure I sent it I kidna wanted to see where you were at with the question first. I would also make sure my "cop" claims would 100% line up with my play if I was mafia because on teams I'm on you claim a role before you die you don't just die. Frankly the fact that ratchet wasn't ready with a counter claim lock clears me however you guys unfortunately don't know that unless you've watched video mafia a bunch I coach my teams to always claim something worst case you still die best case you get believed
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:07 AM   #2147
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
Being methodical doesn't necessarily make him town - in fact, being as objective in nature as possible as scum is generally a decent way to blend in - I am just saying that he's doing a damn good job of it if he's scum.

Perhaps you could enlighten me as to why you think he's scum? Who would his next likeliest partner be if not me?
He has played this game with the intent of living not with the intent of lynching wolves. I want you to tell me one person that you thought "man dorian really buried x" or "wow the fire in dorian to figure this game out was so good" same with ratchet he was passionate about his defense but everything else he didn't care about.

Dorian doesn't care who dies as long as its not him. He is a wolf. More to come later
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:19 AM   #2148
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Re: Vote Count

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampionsMod View Post
Votes from post 1743 to post 2144
Night in 17:59:57

---
VotesLynchVoters
4 road dorian78 (22), Riki (84), Slendy (61), fontisian (26)
2 dorian78 DocEspana (18), TehBankertin (91)
1 TehBankertin bhuber2010 (39)
2 not voting Achromatic (23), road (26)
I flipped my number around1
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:23 AM   #2149
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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He has played this game with the intent of living not with the intent of lynching wolves. I want you to tell me one person that you thought "man dorian really buried x" or "wow the fire in dorian to figure this game out was so good" same with ratchet he was passionate about his defense but everything else he didn't care about.

Dorian doesn't care who dies as long as its not him. He is a wolf. More to come later
I don't necessarily disagree. I actually thought that exact thing to myself (i.e. the part where he hasn't really made a case against any particular player).

The fact that he hasn't pushed anyone in that way is somewhat perturbing - I guess it would be nice to have some sort of meta with him to see if he actually constructed cases against players in the past (then it would be out of the ordinary for him to not really have done that here - and then conversely, just kind of gone with the flow and making up analysis here and there to keep scooting by).
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Old 06-21-2015, 02:24 AM   #2150
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

road you around?
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