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Old 06-20-2015, 09:28 AM   #1926
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by Riki View Post
which parts did you disagree with?
His conclusion that i was scum. obv

Quote:
Originally Posted by dorian78 View Post
Ok. I need to go run some errands, but I want my thoughts on pairings out there first.

1. bhuber makes sense as a possible pair with just about anyone, as he more or less has zero interactions with any of the others that are being considered.

2. road doesn't really make a good pair with any of the suspects besides bhuber. Before MSU's claim, my Doc vote wasn't gaining any traction, and I was this close to switching to road as my other scumread. Well, or MSU because he was way too good at intentionally scumming it up and I was falling for it. Riki and I both were set to vote road yesterday, and if either of us were going to bus a teammate, Ratchet was by far the best choice. I mean, look at how much credit Doc got for going after Ratchet, even before he was cleared by the cop.

3. Riki and I make an odd pair. He went after me really hard at the start of the game, waffled back and forth on me at the end of day 1, and then buddied me super-hard day 2 before MSU's claim. Like, I posted all my reads, and he basically said, yup I agree with almost everything. I guess it's possible from other people's perspective, but I know I'm town, and it just seems like a ton of interaction for 2 teammates.

4. I think road/Riki is unlikely, and I know road/me is wrong. If it's not road/bhuber, I see scenarios where lynching the 4 of us doesn't win us the game. That means I probably need to at least consider someone else. My first inclination is Banks, simply because of the day 1 final vote tally. Whether or not that's seriously worth considering would require me to go over Banks's interactions with Ratchet and all the other suspects, and that's a very daunting prospect. I'll gladly put that effort in if it gets to the point where I need to, but it doesn't seem necessary yet.

TL;DR

I still like road/bhuber the best, followed by bhuber/Riki.
I can totally see how bhuber/me is viable to everyone else, but I know it's wrong.
I don't think road/Riki seems right.
I know road/me and Riki/me are wrong, and I don't think they should seem right to others.

bhuber flipping mafia doesn't tell us anything about anyone, barring future interactions today. road flipping mafia tells a fair bit more. For now,

road
Lol this seems opportunistic. What are the math behind this thought? From what I read there you think there are a bigger probability that bhuber are mafia than me.
You are just assuming in your conclusio nthat either of us flips mafia. Try to consider the fact that we could flip villagers. I know i will flip villager, and then what info have you gained?
I think bhuber wil lflip villager, and then what info have you gained?

I think this is the wrong way to look at it.

I mean, if i were to be lynched and flip scum, then you would say that riki couldnt be my partner, which means bhuber would be next for lynch. The the info gained with lynching me is no bigger than lynching bhuber, because he would be lynched anyway - from your train of thoughts.

I just dont see why it makes sense to not lynch who you find most scummy in this situation.

Anyways, this only makes sense of you to screw up intentionally if you were scum with bhuber, which I as of now dont find likely

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Originally Posted by Riki View Post
basically

i mean there's also the stuff i mentioned yesterday where he's kind of been floating through this game and i can't think of many new or original ideas he's mentioned during this game

and i briefly read his game 3 filter and thought he's been much softer here than in that game, despite being the seer for the first time in that game

also i like that dorian has been doing some work today and probably want to lynch him less than road/bhuber
I dont think this is true. I can try to find some posts from game 3
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Old 06-20-2015, 09:28 AM   #1927
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Also, Achro is not seer hunt clear.That's not the reason you should be townreading him.
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Old 06-20-2015, 09:31 AM   #1928
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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You think Riki is town for effort? Scum!Riki puts a ton of effort into analysis toDay because, if he doesn't, there's a fair chance he dies here.
I dont think scum!Riki would put in that much effort in analyzing my posts with the main purpose of suspecting bhuber/dorian. Because he knows I flip villager, and then the effort will be wasted, if the purpose was to get bhuber/dorian mislynched after me. So IF he could put in that effort, i think he would analyze other places.

This just seems like a villager assuming I'm scum.
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Old 06-20-2015, 09:33 AM   #1929
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
Also, Achro is not seer hunt clear.That's not the reason you should be townreading him.
Well in my mind he is close to be.
I'm way behind and a realistic view i wouldnt be able to do all the work i would like to do, therefore I need some kind of assumptions to ease my workload.
I would as of now, be willing to clear achro because of that AND the other things (him being villagery, analyzing a lot, doing a lot of work, toneread, vote d1)
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Old 06-20-2015, 09:35 AM   #1930
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I disagree. In this situation, you both should be thinking Day to Day about getting mislyches. Putting in a little extra effort for one should be worthwhile.
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Old 06-20-2015, 09:37 AM   #1931
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by road View Post
Well in my mind he is close to be.
I'm way behind and a realistic view i wouldnt be able to do all the work i would like to do, therefore I need some kind of assumptions to ease my workload.
I would as of now, be willing to clear achro because of that AND the other things (him being villagery, analyzing a lot, doing a lot of work, toneread, vote d1)
Why?

Cue spent most of Day 1 trying to figure out Achro's alignment and explicitly said he might be scum. I don't get how you can see that as a clear seer hunt clear when we've already discussed all of this.
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Old 06-20-2015, 09:41 AM   #1932
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by road View Post
I'm making a lot of coffee and will start now.
If anyone are interested in my startingperspective I'm here now:

Town:
road
Doc

Very likely town:
Achro (In my mind probably SHC, and just villavibes all over)
bhuber ( see my d2analysis, dont think he really posted since?)
Riki (because of my latest post)

This leaves:
Dorian,
Fonti,
Slendy
Banks

I still find Banks as a likely scum, and i hope i will finish my case today. I have gotten villavibes from the other 3, but not enough to put them in the upper category
This is not a very great list of suspicions haha.
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Old 06-20-2015, 09:42 AM   #1933
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
You think Riki is town for effort? Scum!Riki puts a ton of effort into analysis toDay because, if he doesn't, there's a fair chance he dies here.
Truer words have ever been spoken? I think not.
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Old 06-20-2015, 09:52 AM   #1934
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
fontisian - probably somewhat unexpected considering i spent a decent chunk of my contribution this far accusing him/her...but those were also based off the first two pages - that being said, I actually felt more comfortable having read the next 9 pages with fontisian than I did with just about any of the remaining players - there are quite a few posts I could go back and nit-pick (mostly tone based intuition) for why I feel this way now - unlike achro/slendy, fontisian didnt exactly have the most stellar voting on EoD 1 but there were some aspects with the way that it played out that I recall liking
This is one of those things where I wish I could believe you came to this read without seeing that basically everyone else already townread me.
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Old 06-20-2015, 09:53 AM   #1935
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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My thoughts on roads are two fold and depend on his confidence level in his scum and town games.

I find it hard to believe after last game where I made it to final 3 and was never even remotely considered for lynch until final 3 where I made 100 post and reread the thread 3 times as well as games from both of the people in the game. I don't think that road would qualify me as an "easy misslynch" I don't go down easy which anyone who has played with me will attest to. I know he has one game with me and I think I gave off that vibe but maybe thats because the people who railed and told me that thought it was true and know me from other games. You guys might have better insight to that than me.

So That in mind road brings up a huge case on me (clearly he was working on it for awhile) being scum. Does scum!Road really push that hard against someone who is very difficult to lynch? He MIGHT if he thinks he would just be the crazy guy in the corner yelling that paranoia world. OR Is road a townie who legitimately had this thought? Who thought he might have found me as scum and wanted the world to know? Does he keep bringing it up after the check as scum?

In the time I was thinking about this in the shower. (I know I was thinking about road in the shower don't get jealous pizzaguy) I came to the conclusion that road is PROBABLY town.

These justifications come with the caveat that you know I'm town.

I think dorian bhuber are my main courses with riki as my backup. (I think I might have found something that makes riki a bit more likely but I want to read fully before going there my pride would be hurt if I fake peeked mafia day 1)
Nice!
I dont know what to make of this post. I'm considering what Scum!Banks can ever gain from reading me town in this spot. Keeping me in the game, having me as an easy mislynch later?

And yes, I dont think anyone would consider you an easy target, lol. I still think my points are true (which I will elaborate on later). Can you short explain your progression on your read on me this game?

I have had an odd feeling about this, but i fakepeeked you so wasnt able to ask you a lot during most of d1 and d2
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:00 AM   #1936
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
I disagree. In this situation, you both should be thinking Day to Day about getting mislyches. Putting in a little extra effort for one should be worthwhile.
Assuming Riki is scum I think his strategy should depend on how the last scum is being read. Day to day if he is in a PoE and long term if the last one is safe.
What does this mean?
Nothing, because Riki is villager.
However IF Riki should be scum, which i find unlikely, his scummate is probably in the danger.

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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
Why?

Cue spent most of Day 1 trying to figure out Achro's alignment and explicitly said he might be scum. I don't get how you can see that as a clear seer hunt clear when we've already discussed all of this.
Can you show these posts? I dont remember that when reading through, and it is the first time I have seen anyone stating that.

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This is not a very great list of suspicions haha.
Well, I dont think it can be worse than most of your guys, as I for a fact know that you are wrong with the top suspect (being me ofc)
Try to assume I'm villager, maybe the whole game would look different. I think my perspective is very different because i read all of the analysis knowing the outcome/assumptions are wrong
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:03 AM   #1937
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Try to assume I'm villager, maybe the whole game would look different. I think my perspective is very different because i read all of the analysis knowing the outcome/assumptions are wrong
Oh Im not the one who is voting for you. Im voting for the other guy. I actually have you about third from the bottom.

But you're more than welcome to give me reason to rearrange.
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:03 AM   #1938
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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like when i read his case most of it was kind of generic reasons and i didn't really like it

could probably get a better idea if he elaborated or gave examples for most of his points i guess
I will

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Originally Posted by Riki View Post
there was also one thing he said that was "-- Him not really keeping up his cop-cover (at least in the way i would assume he would do)"

which seems like a weird thing to pay attention to or call out
I always keep an eye for the cop. The worst thing ever is to lynch the cop, the next worst thing is to lynch his peek.
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:06 AM   #1939
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Oh Im not the one who is voting for you. Im voting for the other guy. I actually have you about third from the bottom.

But you're more than welcome to give me reason to rearrange.
Ah sry, just felt everyone where voting for me.
After having answered whatever question/post directed or about me, I wont prioritize defending myself. Even though you are not voting for me, im in your PoE. I think im in everyones PoE.
the best thing i can do is to make the other in the PoE the two scum.
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:18 AM   #1940
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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...Aaaand the D2-posts DESTROY the Town-impression I got. Or at the very least confuse the hell out of me. Either it's the biggest coincidence ever, or road just so HAPPENS to ignore Ratchet of all people involved in the EoD1-madness entirely.

This is from D1:

And then comes D2:

The underlined... does actually seem like it could explain Mafia!road and Mafia!Ratchet's incentive for hitting cue. Like, road included Ratchet in the "might MAYBE Lynch" category, then the above is the ONLY thing road has got to say on Ratchet, while drawing the conclusion below...

Like, did we just witness Mafia!road slipping that he THOUGHT Ratchet is in the clear after cue is Hit, as he just moves on to everyone BUT Ratchet that was Voted on?! The English is somewhat broken so it might be hard to pick up on at first but seriously, that's what this reads out as to me.

Continuation of the above.

Somewhat flimsy ('frozen') and possibly opportunistic.

Possible message to Scumbuddy!Ratchet, urging a counterclaim?
Hmm. I think it is naturally. I mean, when i can live with people in wagons, i mean i dont have any kind of townread on them. As you quoted in the post above, i didnt have any real read on fonti, riki and ratchet. I later got a villagerread on fonti (which you quoted too) - therefore leaving ratchet and riki as acceptable (however not preferred) lynches. I cant see what you find weird there?

In the 2nd quote I actually asks what people think about resolving wagons, when the wolves resolved the third wagon? It is a situation I dont recall having been in before ,therefore finding it weird. It is not like I'm saying "we shouldnt lynch Ratchet". I think you are overthinking this.

I never states that Ratchet is clear. My arguments for wanting to focus on the 4 ppl is that they were ALL wagons early on but NONE of them ended up being wagons. Wouldnt you think this leaves at least 1 scum there?

last quote: lol tunnelling
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:22 AM   #1941
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Road does indeed fail both the road talking about ratchet and the ratchet talking about road tests.
Well you cant just have this without putting in the context.
I havent been a profile in this game, therefore not that much reason to talk about me. Ratchet was kind of anonymous up to my last post eod d1. On d2 a lot of other guys were asking him a lot - no reason for me to. I really dont think this is as suspicious as you think - i Feel like it just fits your worldview of me being scum

Btw

I think would also fail the "test" vs:

riki, slendy, doc, msu

and maybe some would say vs: fonti, achro too

I havent read spew on ratchet yet, but I would find it weird if you werent able to find more ppl he didnt really talk about.
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:27 AM   #1942
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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this might be a weird thing to harp on

but one thing that surprised me when road came out with this case on banks, was that a lot of the generic stuff that he mentions here could apply to me

like "a lack of progression in reads", maybe

"simulating being active and productive, but really not contributing with that much" could probably apply to me

i also had almost the exact same votes as banks at eod1

the "faking interest in wanting to interact with me" doesn't even feel real but that's another thing entirely

the weird thing is that road had banks as a townread for most of the game, like he fakepeeked him d1

on the other hand he's had me at null the entire game, and said he was ok with me being a wagon at eod1 and stuff

so when he probably could've tried to make a similar case on me, and it would've made more sense for him progression-wise, but he chose to make it on banks

so that makes it seem more likely that he made the case on banks for the sake of making a case on banks, i think
I have a history with Banks therefore I was more focused on him than anyone else. I still am actually.
Also I havent looked at you as scummy. You have been neutral to me all the time, because you were one of the ones with highest postcount, so i never really felt like ISO'ing you.

If you look in game 3, i actually have it in the EXACT same way in regards to some of the other players (if i remember correct Yates and coolkid in particular - but also banks in middle stages after townreading him d1 though)
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:34 AM   #1943
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
We know that if road is Mafia, he completely ignored the flipped Scumbuddy.

road's interactions (on his behalf) and progressions on bhuber/Dorian are particularly sketchy, but Ratchet would seem to be the only person he's definitely forgot about. In fact, I have a hard time remembering any reads by him that haven't progressed arbitrarily.

OTOH, Ratchet wasn't discussed at all in a suspicious light during road's active phase, and road missed all the real-time-windows for discussing Ratchet with people (start of D2 he had clearly decided that Ratchet is cleared because cue flipped Town, because lol). So road's interactions with the third person probably wouldn't be similar to road-Ratchet.

Regardless, bhuber and Dorian stand out in both road's and Ratchet's progressions, to my recollection.
1) I didnt forget about ratchet. I jsut had limited time and therefore not focusing on him. I think I even write that in some post lol. also i dont remeber being online at the same time as Ratchet. I think you would a lot of ppl I dont really interact with/talk about in more than some few lines.

2) bhuber have been one of the ppl i actually spend most time reading. I had him as scum d1 but reading up on him during the early stages of d2 i changed my read on him to villagery. I assume i did argue for that.

3) Yes i forgot dorian. I dont think you can deduce anything from that - it is probably neutral for me, because I have a tendency to forget different things lol. Also i do think i remember having discussed dorian on d1/d2 and some of his thoughts.
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:34 AM   #1944
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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In the 2nd quote I actually asks what people think about resolving wagons, when the wolves resolved the third wagon? It is a situation I dont recall having been in before ,therefore finding it weird. It is not like I'm saying "we shouldnt lynch Ratchet". I think you are overthinking this.
Bull****. You first go "okay cue-flip resolves that thing [Ratchet]" then you LEAVE OUT THE MOST IMPORTANT D1-WAGON from your "pool of 4" -wagons.

What the hell, if you are Town?
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:37 AM   #1945
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Well you cant just have this without putting in the context.
I havent been a profile in this game, therefore not that much reason to talk about me. Ratchet was kind of anonymous up to my last post eod d1. On d2 a lot of other guys were asking him a lot - no reason for me to. I really dont think this is as suspicious as you think - i Feel like it just fits your worldview of me being scum

Btw

I think would also fail the "test" vs:

riki, slendy, doc, msu

and maybe some would say vs: fonti, achro too

I havent read spew on ratchet yet, but I would find it weird if you werent able to find more ppl he didnt really talk about.
Riki, Slendy and Doc are CLEARLY arbitrary.

Was this post just an excuse for you to try to make it seem like you'd have had sufficient interactions with Banks? That's the only name missing alongside Bhuber, so this is CLEARLY arbitrary.
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:38 AM   #1946
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
Like if you try looking at his post close to EoD from my perspective (assuming im a villager).

This looks awful. Seeing as how I (based off d1 alone) figure slendy to > rand to be a villager, cue is a dead villager, and I know I am a villager. His top 3 mafia candidates are/were highly likely to be a shame. That mixed with the fact that 2/3 of his next tier were/are now confirmed town basically means that road's reads really, really sucked - or just as a likely, hes a mafia pushing town players (Id have to look at what the vote count was around that time - if rachet was already starting to get heat, it would be pretty easy for him sneak him into the second tier there because it went along with the thread flow at the time, perfectly).
Having bad reads doesnt equal being scum. I also changed my read on you completely on d2 after rereading you and actually realizing i probably missread you.
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:39 AM   #1947
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

To clarify, THIS:
Quote:
Assuming ratchet is lynched scum we would normally feel a lot better about lynching cue. What more info can we gain? I mean, if Ratchet is villager, there are no real information to gain. But if we should infolynch him, it is important to make sure we actually gain some info if he turns scum.
seems like the bit where road has TMI-slipped with regards to Ratchet and the cue hit; pointing out that having cue alive would be extra incentive to lynch Ratchet, but since cue is gone that 'incentive' is gone because 'no real information to gain'.
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:39 AM   #1948
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
Bull****. You first go "okay cue-flip resolves that thing [Ratchet]" then you LEAVE OUT THE MOST IMPORTANT D1-WAGON from your "pool of 4" -wagons.

What the hell, if you are Town?
Try to reread my post. Or, wait a cpl of seconds, then i will quote it and highlight why you are wrong
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:41 AM   #1949
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Already spared you the trouble.

Also going to afk for a moment -- like I said, unsure how much I can be around later, but I feel that the relevant questions (for me atleast) have already been asked.
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Old 06-20-2015, 10:44 AM   #1950
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Also lol, i totally ignored eod. It was very interesting and there should be some info available. It is possible it was 3 villagers, but maybe a resolving of the wagons is the way to go?

On my site we usuallt do that but in this exact case, where cue was the one voting smartbomb last, i think the benefit of the infogaining is less than normal.

Assuming ratchet is lynched scum we would normally feel a lot better about lynching cue. What more info can we gain? I mean, if Ratchet is villager, there are no real information to gain. But if we should infolynch him, it is important to make sure we actually gain some info if he turns scum.

I might have to look more closely to the eod, as this would be my default play.

^^ also havent considered any read on Ratchet - this is purely a strategic consideration. Can anyone sum up the case on Ratchet?
My purpose of this post was to:

1) Ask what other ppl thought of resolving wagons, in this exact situation. Normally it would be standard but i think that cue (the last wagon and also the one saving Ratchet) being killed changes a lot.
2) Making sure that lynching Ratchet would actually serve a purpose

I dont see why this is weird at all. If we wont to infolynch (which is often the case d2), we shoould make sure to get some info. Point out where I try to assume cue lynch means ratchet is villager?
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