this is road's progression on dorian

(read on dorian)

(defending the above read)

(also defending the above read)

(also talking about the above read)

(reads list that doesn't include dorian)

(reply to dorian's post on smartbomb)

(continued conversation from above)

(still continued)

(self explanatory)

(talking about another dorian post)


i left the quoted posts so people can make their own conclusions, because i don't fully trust my own, i quoted all of the posts that i thought were relevant and about dorian

i still dislike the post where he calls one of dorian's early posts super villagery, that could be a fabricated read if they're w/v

however despite saying that dorian was "at the top of his villalist" at the time, and defending his villaread on dorian for several posts, he doesn't include dorian on his next reads list

that's probably a point for dorian since i think he'd likely remember any reads he made on his teammates, since they're like, his teammates, and be less likely to not include a teammate on his list after making a read on them, and talking about them for a good portion of the day, because that'd be seen as like a weird progression

later he calls out one of dorian's posts for possibly being constructed or faking confidence or something

he also made another reads list before leaving the thread where he didn't include dorian again

then the next day he says he thought dorian was pretty villagery for the entire previous day which is kind of a lie

and in his next immediate post he talks about how dorian might have showed tmi that road is a villager when replying to his question

later he quotes a dorian post and says he's slightly villagery for basically posting a summary of what happened at eod which i didn't include but i found that strange too

basically he goes back and forth on him a lot, which is probably unnecessary if they're teammates, and kind of "forgets" about his read on dorian at times, so i think they're probably not teammates

also this is kind of thin but

in the first quote he's disagreeing with fonti and saying he thinks that slendy not elaborating on his early reads is more villagery than wolfy

then in a later post, after slendy starts scumreading road, he calls out slendy for not elaborating on his reads which kind of contradicts his stance in the first quote

so like, either he just took the scumread really personally for some reason or the first quote was just a fake stance/post

Road

I'll just casually make this a runaway lynch train. Choo choo.

We know that if road is Mafia, he completely ignored the flipped Scumbuddy.

road's interactions (on his behalf) and progressions on bhuber/Dorian are particularly sketchy, but Ratchet would seem to be the only person he's definitely forgot about. In fact, I have a hard time remembering any reads by him that haven't progressed arbitrarily.

OTOH, Ratchet wasn't discussed at all in a suspicious light during road's active phase, and road missed all the real-time-windows for discussing Ratchet with people (start of D2 he had clearly decided that Ratchet is cleared because cue flipped Town, because lol). So road's interactions with the third person probably wouldn't be similar to road-Ratchet.

Regardless, bhuber and Dorian stand out in both road's and Ratchet's progressions, to my recollection.

Well looks like road has explaining to do. I can't wait to hear his explanations. Not that I'm testing on my laurels, but that's good work done above by riki.

I am tough on you and look... you go and actually present stuff I think is really useful in a way that makes a lot of sense to me and all in one post.

Votes from post 1743 to post 1905
Night in 43:59:55
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
4	road	dorian78 (14), Riki (47), Slendy (39), fontisian (12)
1	dorian78	DocEspana (9)
4	not voting	Achromatic (17), bhuber2010 (0), road (6), TehBankertin (15)

TehBankertin (15)

is this real life

i skimmed all of road's day 1/day 2/some of day 3 posts from game 3

first surface level observation is that he has said stuff like "i know this makes me look bad" or "i know i'm exposing myself as scum in regards to your reasoning" multiple times in this game, and made approximately zero similar posts to the above in the previous game

like most of the time that he's said something like the above has been after returning to the thread after being afk for a while, and he had similar periods of inactivity in the previous game (since people sleep and stuff) and wasn't nearly as apologetic or self-conscious there

Votes from post 1743 to post 1908
Night in 39:59:59
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
4	road	dorian78 (14), Riki (49), Slendy (39), fontisian (12)
1	dorian78	DocEspana (9)
4	not voting	Achromatic (17), bhuber2010 (0), road (6), TehBankertin (15)

Haha yeah prioritized having fun on my day off. There will be a 1 or 2 in front of that before days end sir

Just spent around 4 hours reading the first 11 pages.

Apologies for not getting around till now. I am going to bed because horrendously exhausted (ended up having to work 1 more day this week than I had anticipated). Off till Monday night though so I should be around fluidly until then.

Will probably wake up and hit the gym and then post solidly from then on out (expect me to be on around 6-7pm EST).

I'll probably spend 3-4 more hours reading from that point forward to get fully caught up with the thread so I may chit chat if anyone has stuff they want to ask but my hope is to be fully caught up before I start sharing reads that might be super outdated.

Love you all.

Nah it would be useful to hear the outdated reads from you as well, bhuber, as you ketchup.

PoE is getting narrower and you're at the top of the list of people the playerbase wants to see flip.

Thats fine, and expected. I also will probably be the person people will least want to lynch come tomorrow evening so I am not too worried about it.

Gauging purely off d1 discussion alone, there a distinct few I'd prefer not to lynch.

Namely:

slendy - I havent read any of d2 yet other than to skim/search for who MSU's peeks were (so basically I ignored all of doc's posts when I was reading d1 for the sake of time since I am ~2000 posts behind (sorry doc, I'll interact with you more once I am fully caught up ).

Basically if that head-to-head stuff were a sham on d1 towards EoD, then you deserve all the credit you'll be getting from me until I feel it is time to re-evaluate my read. I am going to assume (despite not having read d2) that you probably got a lot of credit from the other players for going hard at Rachet in the hour/two hours leading up to EoD (it may have actually started earlier than that but I recall you going HAM at him for at least that amount of time until EoD).

I also noted that I had liked some of your posting earlier (specifically in regards to how fontisian had called you out and your response to it).

achro - I liked his contribution through the first game day phase - he had an opportunity to move to many of the other viable wagons on d1 (literally it was a 4 way tie with 3 votes a piece) but he actually doubled down on rachet towards EoD when he could have just as easily moved to just about anyone else. I dont think this in and of itself is a liberating move, but I think its a step in the right direction - I mostly just want to read his d2 before I lock in to clearing him but I doubt I would suggest lynching him over a number of other players at this point

fontisian - probably somewhat unexpected considering i spent a decent chunk of my contribution this far accusing him/her...but those were also based off the first two pages - that being said, I actually felt more comfortable having read the next 9 pages with fontisian than I did with just about any of the remaining players - there are quite a few posts I could go back and nit-pick (mostly tone based intuition) for why I feel this way now - unlike achro/slendy, fontisian didnt exactly have the most stellar voting on EoD 1 but there were some aspects with the way that it played out that I recall liking

I recall riki asking banks a number of times whom he planned on voting towards EoD that I felt was super out of place at the time - banks also hard-defended Rachet in a number of places and was basically okay with lynching numerous people that were/are villagers who were people I felt were villagers. I know riki was super involved d1 and again on d2 judging by merely post count value so I'd be more apt to give him the benefit of the doubt over banks - banks was screaming for all sorts of **** on eod 1 that didnt seem to make sense to me but I'll get into that further once I wake up.

road also seemed super detached in his EOD 1 and his list of acceptable votes was horrendous - i can see he's already getting railroaded today though so it probably cant hurt that he has a little extra pressure on him already with 39 hours to basically talk us through it

Like if you try looking at his post close to EoD from my perspective (assuming im a villager).

This looks awful. Seeing as how I (based off d1 alone) figure slendy to > rand to be a villager, cue is a dead villager, and I know I am a villager. His top 3 mafia candidates are/were highly likely to be a shame. That mixed with the fact that 2/3 of his next tier were/are now confirmed town basically means that road's reads really, really sucked - or just as a likely, hes a mafia pushing town players (Id have to look at what the vote count was around that time - if rachet was already starting to get heat, it would be pretty easy for him sneak him into the second tier there because it went along with the thread flow at the time, perfectly).

anyhow, i know this is a huge teaser and for that i apologize, i ended up having to work 1 extra night shift and that severely limited the time i was able to contribute up until now - going to bed now but i dont forsee really being in many game solves (cause I am generally very good at clearing myself) so basically the mafia are just going to cry themselves to sleep when I clear myself in about 1 hour tomorrow

sorry bros

While rereading road, I was tempted to say road/Banks is out of the question thanks to the weird push by road, but then I realized the wording and the case itself seemed so different from what road had contributed earlier that it could've actually been a N1-distancing request by Banks.

Anyways, still have Ratchet's full spew to go through. Will have to wait until later today, possibly even until tomorrow -- might end up indulging myself with some alcohol tonight.

Allllso regarding Ratchet, there was one thing that caught my eye while going through road... I noticed that when he provided reads on people who are now confirmed Town, he always sounded quite 'undecided'/insecure. (Before entering the antispew-phase at start of D2.) As in, left himself some wiggle-room. I would be tempted to assume that his Scumpartner-descriptions are more "spot-on" -- as in, very brief with few words, or more words but with very little waning of opinion. So I'll be interested to see whether this 'hypothesis' works with the full filter or not.

Last paragraph describing a reads-post by Ratchet I came upon, for clarity's sake.

Votes from post 1743 to post 1920
Night in 35:59:58
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
4	road	dorian78 (14), Riki (49), Slendy (42), fontisian (12)
1	dorian78	DocEspana (9)
4	not voting	Achromatic (17), bhuber2010 (7), road (6), TehBankertin (16)

Anyways, first resolving the Rs and then resolving the Bs seems like that should net a win. With an outside chance of Lynching the D.

Regarding this: The 'difference' is striking because it seems so carefully planned, like almost "copy-pasted" from the Scum N1-QT if you get what I'm saying. Uncharacteristic lingo for road.
I could imagine Banks scolding road in the Nightchat for not being around EoD1 and buddying up to him too much D1 (would annoy him as Ratchet also did that and he doesn't want to be too obvious).
I COULD also imagine bhuber 'feeding' the case on road, but not Dorian.
Anyways the bottom line is that doesn't seem like road, that case. And it seems like the decision to make the case in the first place happened N1 (could be due to font getting Towncred for pushing cue, though, like fonti suggested, but this also seems possible due to the 'difference').

Am I overthinking things?

Im here now.
Im going to read through the thread and answer whatever question is directed at me

I have skimmed most of the thread from my mobile, so i can see i'm getting heated up.

fwiw, I have done one thing this game that, if you knew my scummeta, would clear me 100%. But you dont. Unfortunately. I would never ever drop my cover on d2 as scum. Especially not when i was being heated (therefore I would need a cover to claim cop and save me a day more)

From what I've skimmed, I would clear riki as a villager. His way of analyzing my post, with the main purpose of deducing (in his mind) the last scum is just so villagery. I dont think a scum, at this stage of the game woudl spend so much effort in doing work that with high probability will be showed as wasted the next day. I might consider that Banks would do just that, because i have seen his extreme WIM, but in general - even for good and dedicated players I just dont see it.

I'm making a lot of coffee and will start now.
If anyone are interested in my startingperspective I'm here now:

Town:
road
Doc

Very likely town:
Achro (In my mind probably SHC, and just villavibes all over)
bhuber ( see my d2analysis, dont think he really posted since?)
Riki (because of my latest post)

This leaves:
Dorian,
Fonti,
Slendy
Banks

I still find Banks as a likely scum, and i hope i will finish my case today. I have gotten villavibes from the other 3, but not enough to put them in the upper category

You think Riki is town for effort? Scum!Riki puts a ton of effort into analysis toDay because, if he doesn't, there's a fair chance he dies here.