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Old 06-19-2015, 08:31 AM   #1751
Slendy
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

MSU made huge sense as a Cop, some sense as a Mafia, zero sense as a VT. The reason me and riki started turning on him was because he was being intentionally Scummy (tunnel-y, to be more precise) with his attack on Ratchet.

VT never builds up a guilty-bluff like that, because they are always uncertain.

For instance, my plan was to have Achro as my fake N0-peek (that's what the wow such Town -comments were supposed to be for; was going to repeat them consistently) and Ratchet as a faked N1-guilty. But then I got cold feet when Ratchet seemed too obstinate to be Scum, wrt me-Achro-MSU AND the cue-Hit and the SHK-mechanic overall. Anyways, the way I started building up my case against Ratchet is the way a VT would've feasibly pulled off the gambit you are suggesting.
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Old 06-19-2015, 08:33 AM   #1752
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
LOL.
Results, not decisions. It was a nice SFD you made on d1, i will give you that.
SFD also happened in Game 5 and I've NEVER before initiated actual CFDs in my Mafia-playing career, so I find these two consecutive instances of SFDing hilarious.
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Old 06-19-2015, 08:38 AM   #1753
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
MSU made huge sense as a Cop, some sense as a Mafia, zero sense as a VT. The reason me and riki started turning on him was because he was being intentionally Scummy (tunnel-y, to be more precise) with his attack on Ratchet.

VT never builds up a guilty-bluff like that, because they are always uncertain.

For instance, my plan was to have Achro as my fake N0-peek (that's what the wow such Town -comments were supposed to be for; was going to repeat them consistently) and Ratchet as a faked N1-guilty. But then I got cold feet when Ratchet seemed too obstinate to be Scum, wrt me-Achro-MSU AND the cue-Hit and the SHK-mechanic overall. Anyways, the way I started building up my case against Ratchet is the way a VT would've feasibly pulled off the gambit you are suggesting.
Not really a productive discussion, and i could misinterpret it (no offence intended to msu). But I looked more at the context: A claim day 2 is rare, Ratchet looked like a possible lynch, MSU didnt really look like a lynch, I couldnt identify any d1-peek (and not doc, when he stated that).
Also I didnt consider him being scum. I cant remember having seen a scum fakeclaim on d2 without being like the top top wagon..

Maybe i missed the vibe on d2, and maybe msu was just more in danger than i realize
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Old 06-19-2015, 08:40 AM   #1754
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
SFD also happened in Game 5 and I've NEVER before initiated actual CFDs in my Mafia-playing career, so I find these two consecutive instances of SFDing hilarious.
Okay, so let's say MSU didnt claim and I got my Banks-case through and he was lynched scum - would I have been the first in history to make a SFD after it being a thing then?
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Old 06-19-2015, 08:46 AM   #1755
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by TehBankertin View Post
do you agree or because you read the spew? OR because you think were town? OR because x?
Let's start with this. Day ended before I could respond. I agree because I read Achro's take on the spew and it all makes sense with the realigned world of MSU being cop and Ratchet being mafia. I also think that mafia don't go back and do that kind of work before the flips even happen - it reeks of town seeking a gold star. As much as it was incredibly unlikely, it was possible that MSU was mafia and wouldn't be killed, and it was possible bhuber would show up and counterclaim. Maybe it's just cause I care much less about earning that gold star, but I wouldn't have done that kind of work until after the flips were 100% instead of 98% sure.

I will make a point of rereading Ratchet's posts over the weekend, but I think rereading my top suspects' posts takes higher priority, as I doubt I'm going to find anything more insightful in Ratchet's posts than Achro did.

I still believe pretty firmly that road/bhuber should die first, and then Riki/me next, and no one else should really be on the table until after that.
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Old 06-19-2015, 08:52 AM   #1756
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by Riki View Post
his forum is also pretty soft on day 1s, so yea it would be kind of expected

i was actually kind of impressed by his day 1 after the description someone in the spectator chat gave of their normal day 1 site meta
Thanks, I suppose. Anyways, why do you think I made that "windy-as-****" post in the main thread before the game? Because words cannot begin to describe how completely and fundamentally different this game is from anything we've ever played on our site. We're so different and more laid back that our pool of nominees was basically the 2 or 3 people who said they had the time and were willing to be eaten alive in this game. The vast majority of our strong players whose names got mentioned said heck no. But this is a conversation best continued post-game, I think.

Next up, digging through bhuber's posts, cause there's not many. Then work for a bit.
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Old 06-19-2015, 08:59 AM   #1757
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Also almost forgot. Riki pulled up this post of mine

Quote:
Originally Posted by dorian78 View Post
Riki, Banks, and bhuber. I don't think I've interacted with or maybe even mentioned Ratchet all game. He's been coasting by, making good points, not drawing a whole lot of attention, but I have liked what I've seen, and definitely am putting him in the town camp for now too.

Achromatic was a higher read early on, but the long stretch of silence and the sudden push on a lurker have made it a much lower, more cautious town-read.
and said

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riki View Post
i don't like making these types of reads but him saying that ratchet was "coasting by, not drawing a lot of attention" is possibly a weirdish thing to add
That post was my newbie piss-poor attempt at trying to build a case for Ratchet as my night 0 peek should I ever have had to fake-claim cop. Way to go, dorian, starting the game by picking a mafian to fake-scan innocent. Ratchet seemed like a good choice precisely because we hadn't interacted much, and at the time I made that post and left for the night, he hadn't gotten any votes, made any huge cases against anyone else, or ruffled anyone's feathers and seemed likely to still be alive later in the game.
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Old 06-19-2015, 09:17 AM   #1758
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
Dont remember, I kind of have this guage/threshold where at some point I feel strongly enough about certain players to state my read on them (regardless of the accuracy of the read).

Those players met that threshold for various reasons. Perhaps by the time I'm all caught up I'll have a more definitive answer for you two, too.
This is a response to cue asking bhuber for his opinion on Ratchet (and maybe also himself). Holy avoiding-the-question, Batman!

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
I suppose I cant help you when you believe that there is a 0 percent chance that 5 townies vote another in that spot when that literally happens all the time (especially on day 1).
bhuber continuing his case against fonti for her thoughts on the day 1 MSU wagon. fonti was right, bhuber was wrong - there was at least one mafia on that wagon, Ratchet. It's not scummy by itself, but definitely worth noting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
Hmm I didnt consider this when reading it. I still dont quite see it. Well, reading it, when simulating that we know that fonti is scum and smart is villager, then i can see your point makes sense.

But, since you wrote that post fonti have been posting a lot - and you have been discussing with her. With this new information available, how likely do you think this is a slip up? and how likely do you think this is simly fonti's style?
This post totally came up while sifting through bhuber's. It's a reply to bhuber where road starts to justify seeing bhuber's case on fonti. Given that they're currently my top two suspects, it's hard for me not to see this as a scumbuddy interaction.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
I went back and re-read MSU.

Its difficult for me to honestly assess him with such little time remaining. I would say that he is probably a fairly easy mis-lynch target given he has been tied up with work as well it seems which may make it more difficult to adequately defend himself if need be.

In a nutshell, I didnt see anything that was particularly gruesome/that made me cringe when reading the remaining 29 posts I had missed. I dont particularly care what people's interpretation of that this is but I don't really think he's the best lynch candidate today if that makes much/any sense.

Sadly, I wont have time to really sift through the thread and really offer a viable alternative. Again, my main contribution to this first game day is merely to try and throw my thoughts out there/clear myself so that I do not become a mis-lynch.

I think the village/town would be fairly well served looking through the posts of 1) the people who lumped onto MSU fairly early and 2) the people who soft-defended him early on when there was really no reason to do so (because they may have likely had more knowledge of his role if he is indeed a townie).
This. This is bhuber giving up on the MSU lynch (without actually moving his vote to anyone else), and trying to cast suspicion on the early people who followed his case. If I recall, Ratchet was the last voter on the MSU wagon. This smells waaaay too convenient.

More or less the entirety of bhuber's day 2 contribution is below. MSU's cop claim came more or less right around the time that bhuber said he'd seriously be joining the game, and then he no-showed. If real life through me such a huge curveball, I'd at least say so in the quickest post ever from my phone. The no-show looks really bad, but it's meta that's unfair to push, so I'm trying my best to ignore it. Instead, what did he post?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
Did we come up with a consensus for who cue's peek was?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
cue didnt leave a peek - and definitely not an explicit one - I fairly heavily scrutinized his posts so I would surmise he was killed based on feels (he talked about the cop on numerous occasions and also alluded to the fact that he might die early in the game).
Without reading the thread, the only thing he focuses on is "cue was SHK." I don't like that, and I've already said why. The two posts are 45 minutes apart, so I suppose he could have actually heavily scrutinized all of cue's posts, but the conclusion he comes to reeks of his own concept of TMI.

A quick note about the cue kill and a team of Ratchet/road/bhuber. It's entirely possible that, on night 1, bhuber was MIA at work the entire time, and Ratchet and road are on such different time zones that neither was on with the other at the same time, leaving very little discussion to be had.
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Old 06-19-2015, 09:19 AM   #1759
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
This post is like an upside-down pyramid of scumminess; starting with the type of reaction that comes ATLEAST 75% of the time from Scum rather than Town, and continuing in a diminishingly Scummy manner all the way to the bottom.

Happy with my Vote, ah-yup.
I agree with this. My top picks are road and bhuber. More to come on other possible pairings after a couple hours of work stuff. Especially pairings that include myself.
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Old 06-19-2015, 10:43 AM   #1760
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

While driving, I recalled that Ratchet was strongly of the opinion that the cue-hit wasn't a Cop-hunt. Very often Scum tend to have TMI regarding these matters, so assuming there was no 'communication breakdown' between the Scummiosi N1 this might be a point in favour of Town!Riki. Not the relevant point, mind you, just thinking outloud here. I could see Mafia!Riki being one of the Players who'd dare make the guess that cue could be the Cop (I know I did get those vibes out of him D1), but Mafia!bhuber could also do that OTOH. Maybe more likely in a way that doesn't make it clear to the rest of the team that it's also a seer hunt, not just dispelling suspicion against Ratch?

Doc when you've got the time please tell me if the Sneaky!ScumRatchet you correctly profiled D2 goes TMI ('too much information') with regards to the Night Hit they just did or whether he's so twisted that he successfully and consistently feigns ignorance?

Also FTR Dorian goes down the Lynch priority -list in my eyes for the reason that I find his 'objective' approach to the suspect pool more likely to be green than red. Road>bhuber>Dorian>Riki aorn for me, maybe?
Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
Okay, so let's say MSU didnt claim and I got my Banks-case through and he was lynched scum - would I have been the first in history to make a SFD after it being a thing then?
Yup.

I feel that this is clearly the most important topic of discussion for the weekend-Phase.
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Old 06-19-2015, 11:20 AM   #1761
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Can someone explain what CFD means. I gather "c" fire drill. But I still dont know the term. Teach me a new term.

Also I just woke up and im plotting how Im going to go about today. Obviously it will probably be pick a player who has some scum smear and read up on all their posts like a textbook. Just dont know which one to start with.
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Old 06-19-2015, 11:25 AM   #1762
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Riki, road, Dorian would be the list of priority for a proper re-read, Doc. In that order because Riki's the most difficult one to peg if Scum.

CFD=Chinese Fire Drill. Meaning an almost-end-of-the-Phase wagon that appears almost out of nowhere and gains momentum.
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Old 06-19-2015, 11:26 AM   #1763
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Bhuber is not high-priority because so little content and practically speaking afk after D1.

Also, from a couple of posts up:
Quote:
Doc when you've got the time please tell me if the Sneaky!ScumRatchet you correctly profiled D2 goes TMI ('too much information') with regards to the Night Hit they just did or whether he's so twisted that he successfully and consistently feigns ignorance?
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Old 06-19-2015, 11:32 AM   #1764
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Riki: why were you so hesitant to join the Ratchet-wagon, if for nothing else then for pressure's sake only? My recollection is that you sat on your Vote and waited until you Voted road at some point -- is this correct, and if it is, why no earlier Votes?
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Old 06-19-2015, 11:38 AM   #1765
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Riki/Dorian and Riki/road both seem implausible based on my recollection of the Thread, actually...

Riki/Dorian due to (Eo)D1 and Riki/road due to yesterday, if I remember the Tally correctly. And I did I just checked.

Basically if Riki's mafia here, he was trying to deflect from Ratchet ONTO road. Making road/Riki wildly implausible.

Also fwiw came up on bhuber being Riki's fake N0-peek. Not sure what that implies, if anything.
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Old 06-19-2015, 11:42 AM   #1766
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I voted Ratchet, meanwhile Doc also Votes Ratchet and Ratchet Votes Achro but those two Votes are registered as errors in the Tally.

MSU joins Ratchet, me and Banks Vote MSU, fontisiac starts the road-wagon to which MSU also switches to, then Riki finally casts a Vote despite observing the Thread and commenting on things for a while before that.

Definitely could be deflecting. Mafia!Riki would be hesitant to join the Ratchet-wagon for duh-reasons, and if he cast a Vote on MSU instead that could turn out to have been a bit too obvious in the long run, were either of MSU/Ratchet to ever flip. So a Town!road-wagon would've been perfect for deflection.

OTOH if road's a Scummy Scummer, Riki's a confirmed green.
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Old 06-19-2015, 11:45 AM   #1767
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
OTOH if road's a Scummy Scummer, Riki's a confirmed green.
Like, even if I'm forgetting a detail here that would cause the above post to be a misinterpretation, if Mafia!Riki goes for the bus D2 clearly the target of the bus should be Ratchet and no one else. Clearly neither of the remaining Mafia ever went for the bus there, as the Ratchet-voters prior to the claim were me, the cop-clear and the cop himself.

So deflection/careful observation must've been their Modus Operandi prior to MSU's claim.
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Old 06-19-2015, 11:47 AM   #1768
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

**** it, road DID mention the SFD, after all.

Riki
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Old 06-19-2015, 11:50 AM   #1769
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

In case it wasn't clear, my Vote is on Riki because his Voting behaviour during BOTH Phases would make much sense from a Mafia!PoV.

Also interestingly enough road/Riki and Dorian/Riki don't seem plausible, so... Riki/bhuber or even Riki/Banks?
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Old 06-19-2015, 11:55 AM   #1770
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Achromatic View Post
I will highlight the riki points, note: this is me quoting me.



When Ratchet is going into 'I'm melting, I'm melting' at the end of day one he pushes Slendy in a very sloppy manner. Lots of people call him out on it including Riki who, when not getting an answer he found satisfactory, asked him again. I find this crucial because like Banker towards the end of day one they both were trying to get a bead on Ratchet's mindset I feel. They asked what I would call 'the unrequired question' if they were his buddy. Instead of supporting Ratchet straight up, they were searching for answers. True, they ended their pursuit wrongly, but I feel the pursuit of that answer as time was winding down to be a genuine town interaction.

Now mind you this isn't concrete or anything, he's just one step above the love triangle of dorian/bhuber/road. That one bit though is enough to get him above the murkiness. Also I think Ratchet is the type to condemn town and buddy town at the same time while distancing himself from his buddies. Just a feeling, could be wrong.
Thoughts on this Slendy.
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Old 06-19-2015, 12:01 PM   #1771
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Exclamation Vote Count

Votes from post 1743 to post 1770
Night in 55:59:57

---
VotesLynchVoters
1 Riki Slendy (14)
8 not voting Achromatic (1), bhuber2010 (0), DocEspana (1), dorian78 (5), fontisian (0), Riki (0), road (6), TehBankertin (0)
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Old 06-19-2015, 12:26 PM   #1772
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by road View Post
Also plz dont come to the same conclusion as Achro.
which parts did you disagree with?
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Old 06-19-2015, 12:29 PM   #1773
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by road View Post
Not really a productive discussion, and i could misinterpret it (no offence intended to msu). But I looked more at the context: A claim day 2 is rare, Ratchet looked like a possible lynch, MSU didnt really look like a lynch, I couldnt identify any d1-peek (and not doc, when he stated that).
Also I didnt consider him being scum. I cant remember having seen a scum fakeclaim on d2 without being like the top top wagon..

Maybe i missed the vibe on d2, and maybe msu was just more in danger than i realize
i mean msu had more votes than ratchet

the thread seemed to be heading in the direction that ratchet was probably town and msu could be mafia
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Old 06-19-2015, 12:35 PM   #1774
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Ok. I need to go run some errands, but I want my thoughts on pairings out there first.

1. bhuber makes sense as a possible pair with just about anyone, as he more or less has zero interactions with any of the others that are being considered.

2. road doesn't really make a good pair with any of the suspects besides bhuber. Before MSU's claim, my Doc vote wasn't gaining any traction, and I was this close to switching to road as my other scumread. Well, or MSU because he was way too good at intentionally scumming it up and I was falling for it. Riki and I both were set to vote road yesterday, and if either of us were going to bus a teammate, Ratchet was by far the best choice. I mean, look at how much credit Doc got for going after Ratchet, even before he was cleared by the cop.

3. Riki and I make an odd pair. He went after me really hard at the start of the game, waffled back and forth on me at the end of day 1, and then buddied me super-hard day 2 before MSU's claim. Like, I posted all my reads, and he basically said, yup I agree with almost everything. I guess it's possible from other people's perspective, but I know I'm town, and it just seems like a ton of interaction for 2 teammates.

4. I think road/Riki is unlikely, and I know road/me is wrong. If it's not road/bhuber, I see scenarios where lynching the 4 of us doesn't win us the game. That means I probably need to at least consider someone else. My first inclination is Banks, simply because of the day 1 final vote tally. Whether or not that's seriously worth considering would require me to go over Banks's interactions with Ratchet and all the other suspects, and that's a very daunting prospect. I'll gladly put that effort in if it gets to the point where I need to, but it doesn't seem necessary yet.

TL;DR

I still like road/bhuber the best, followed by bhuber/Riki.
I can totally see how bhuber/me is viable to everyone else, but I know it's wrong.
I don't think road/Riki seems right.
I know road/me and Riki/me are wrong, and I don't think they should seem right to others.

bhuber flipping mafia doesn't tell us anything about anyone, barring future interactions today. road flipping mafia tells a fair bit more. For now,

road
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Old 06-19-2015, 12:40 PM   #1775
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slendy View Post
Riki: why were you so hesitant to join the Ratchet-wagon, if for nothing else then for pressure's sake only? My recollection is that you sat on your Vote and waited until you Voted road at some point -- is this correct, and if it is, why no earlier Votes?
is this talking about day 1 or day 2?

at eod1 i sat on dorian for a long time, when the ratchet wagon was started i considered switching to him but didn't for three (kind of) reasons

i liked the smartbomb wagon a bit more (like i was also voting smartbomb for a period of time before eod), ratchet's reasoning for not wanting to lynch cue and voting you instead seemed like a real thought process, and also that thing where i wasn't sure if i was just going to vote him because i wasn't sure how to read him rather than thinking he was actually more likely to flip mafia

if you mean day 2

i didn't vote him because i didn't think that pressuring him would really do much

like, i said near the beginning of the phase that ratchet would probably respond the same way he did to pressure as either alignment, and the same thing would probably be true if i tried to pressure him too

so i figured it would be more productive to spend my time going after others and i could instead try to read him off of his behaviour and how he would go about the rest of the phase after he's sort of been "winning" the thunderdome between himself and msu

and said behaviour wasn't that great
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