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Old 06-18-2015, 11:04 AM   #1501
dorian78
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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@Dorian - say it's Ratchet and Doc today are the only wagons/trains whatever you all call them, who do you vote for and why?
That depends at least somewhat upon who's on which wagon, and what other kind of posting Doc does today to help me get a better read on him. Doc's responses to me, while I don't agree with them, I can understand them. Without the additional info, though, I don't think it's enough to make me pick Ratchet over Doc. I picked Doc before, and I still do.
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Old 06-18-2015, 11:04 AM   #1502
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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@Doc - Who, besides myself, do you have on your scum list, and who is your town list. Throw your nulls in there while you're at it, actually. I can't be the only person you have a definitive opinion on.
Mafia read is you, riki, bhuber.

I'll keep my neutral vs villager reads to myself except for what I previously openly said, that bank is still running villager un my mind. I see it's pretty common here to say it, but I feel giving nice tidy lists of whom I trust more and less among the remainder just let's the wolves line up who they need to kill most next. I'm not going to freely hand more data to wolves that doesn't serve to help villagers in any way (in my mind at least) since the difference between neutral and trusted is very fluid but I'm not going to vote for anyone on that list unless they do something that rubs me wrong. And that's the outcome that matters, "would I vote for them?" The wolves want to know "who should I most want to kill" which is entirely based on the distinction between neutral and villager read
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Old 06-18-2015, 11:58 AM   #1503
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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I dont know exactly why, but every time road speaks I want to lynch him.
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Mafia read is you [Ratchet], riki, bhuber.
You had a fairly strong suspicion of road yesterday, even if it was just gut. What changed to make bhuber make the list instead of road? Or more generally, what are your thoughts on road now?
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Old 06-18-2015, 11:58 AM   #1504
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Doc what are your thoughts on my belief Ratchet is scum due to the naked nature of his scum reads being three people who voted for him yesterday.
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Old 06-18-2015, 12:22 PM   #1505
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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You had a fairly strong suspicion of road yesterday, even if it was just gut. What changed to make bhuber make the list instead of road? Or more generally, what are your thoughts on road now?

Did I come out hard on road? I don't remember being particularly bothered by him. I'm far from in love with his play but I don't remember being very polarized by him either. Maybe I was more suspicious of him yesterday? Or at least sounded so when my comments are read?

@achromatic. I think you're totally into something. We are all pros. We are all hopefully skilled and separating strategy from personal vendetta. I wanted to garner lynch votes over stupid stuff day 1 to get some people identified who would pick on a "low hanging fruit. " it's had mixed success in my mind. But I would vote for people who vote d for me, potentially. In reality I haven't because I didn't get the sort of response I expected.

Now witg ratchet I don't think he has such a plan. He is just lynching those who lynch him. Sort of revenge a bit. I would say that's low level villager play. Rookie Villagers feel pressure and lash back out at those exact people. But he isn't a rookie villager. He is a very well spoken and logical player by most of his posts so far. So he is high level olaying. The fact that he selects the people who voted for him (not BECAUSE they voted for him, nominally) makes me think he wants us to see them as legit scum targets but also wants anyone who suspected him to suffer an early demise.

So yea. It reads Hugh level mafia play to me. He uses decent logic unrelated to the votes for him to isolate out people who did vote for him. Seems too convenient to be accidental. And he is no amatuer, so the "rookie villagers do this too" angle flies out the windkw.
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Old 06-18-2015, 12:23 PM   #1506
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Im here guys! I know you have been waiting for me!
I have skimmed most of the posts and skipped some of the long ones ( I will try to read up on them).

I can see that almost everyone is reading me wolfy. That was also the case in game 3. I dont know if it is the language barrier, because usually on my homesite people are thinking im very villagery. Anyways, ppl are voting for me, and with my level of activity and contribution so far, I can understand why. I can accept being in a wagon, but I will make it my sole purpose of the rest of the evening (well, i will be off for some periods, but i will promise, i will be online up to eod. If not, you can all lynch me without feeling guilty, because then i just screwed up two eods.) to find the most likely scum to be the other wagon.

I will just go for a short run, and then I will start looking for scum. I still have my eyes on Slendy and MSU from a purely mechanical perspective from eod d1.

Also Achro and Banks, where do you think I should spend most of my effort? - keep in mind that I havent read anything in depth since i posted last, only skimmed some reads.
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Old 06-18-2015, 12:32 PM   #1507
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Doc I am thinking over your post, just wanted to let you know that.

@ Road - just do as much as you can. You are lacking in memorable content, so just... get down to business.
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Old 06-18-2015, 12:40 PM   #1508
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Now witg ratchet I don't think he has such a plan. He is just lynching those who lynch him. Sort of revenge a bit. I would say that's low level villager play. Rookie Villagers feel pressure and lash back out at those exact people. But he isn't a rookie villager. He is a very well spoken and logical player by most of his posts so far. So he is high level olaying. The fact that he selects the people who voted for him (not BECAUSE they voted for him, nominally) makes me think he wants us to see them as legit scum targets but also wants anyone who suspected him to suffer an early demise.
Ok. Say Ratchet is mafia and has decided to put his 3 living voters as his top 3 scumreads. Of all 3, why does mafia-Ratchet pick Achromatic to make the huge case on first thing today? I'd think either of the other two who both had wagons the previous day would be the easier choice to make the big push on.

Achromatic - same question.
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Old 06-18-2015, 12:49 PM   #1509
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Still mulling over Doc's point (it is an interesting one that requires me to sit back in my computer chair and think deeply) but if he is scum then it's just another high level play. He does the opposite of expectations. It's very meta heavy and effective on a player such as myself, but that's the play. Target everyone who voted you yesterday knowing it looks bad in a town sort of way, target the person who may very well be the path of most resistance because that accrues you town credit for trying to go through the toughest person.
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Old 06-18-2015, 12:58 PM   #1510
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

@Achro > Im already on it.
Was there any consensus on one being SHC (like you fx)?
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Old 06-18-2015, 12:58 PM   #1511
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Nope.
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Old 06-18-2015, 12:59 PM   #1512
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Next big question for Achro, and probably more relevant than the last. How did you get from Ratchet is strongly town last night

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Ratchet is almost certainly town. He literally thinks the scum team is composed of the three people not dead who voted for him yesterday. I truly feel only town can be that conceited when it comes to how they view the game. It is clear to me that Ratchet just... doesn't know how to process suspicion of him in any meaningful way and I think that's a town trait. As town you go "I am town" it is the one piece of information you have. Ratchet appears to have just humped that fact dry with his suspicions. It makes him town, I feel. It makes me glad I have such a strong read here, because it informs other things now that I think yesterday was town versus town at the very end.
and the same this morning

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I... think I like this given I think Ratchet is town now.
to Ratchet is scum

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Doc what are your thoughts on my belief Ratchet is scum due to the naked nature of his scum reads being three people who voted for him yesterday.
in such a short time??
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:01 PM   #1513
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Oh.

lmao.

I can't believe I just now noticed that dorian.

I still think Ratchet is town. I was on my phone and I just ditzed. Haha that's funny.
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:13 PM   #1514
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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The vote-swapping that happened at the end of day - sweet mother of all that's holy. I've spent all morning reading over it twice to really form an idea of what actually happened, and I need to write it out so I don't forget and can use this a reference point.

5 people were on MSU before we started looking elsewhere. I think it was bhuber, Banks, Riki, smartbomb, and Ratchet. Riki and Banks move over to me, road and fontisian solidify on cue, Achromatic starts the slendy push, and we wind up with a 3-way tie between us. Slendy starts the push on Ratchet and pretty much everyone voting Slendy is so convinced by it that rather than vote for him they'd rather vote with him. In the meantime, Banks and Riki also decide that, since the votes on me aren't gaining traction, they'd rather vote with me on SmartBomb. Ratchet winds up replacing me in the tie, which is eventually decided by cue, now confirmed innocent.

Wow. Just wow. The biggest takeaway I got from this is that there was a very, very easy slide from Slendy to Ratchet, and that lots of people here think that moving your vote around a bunch at the last second is either a good way to create confusion or a good way to test people for very quick reactions when they don't have time to plan out what they're going to say. Both are true, and thus it's a null tell, but I vastly prefer the less confusing route - trying to catch people in quick reactions is difficult, at least for me.
Oky, I didnt think about this when reading eod. But if this is true, there should def be some takeaways. I mean, maybe not some obv scum, but at least exclude some scum/scum or maybe if x is scum then y is prolly scum/villa.
Also, dorian being the first to point this out could be indicative of his alignment, in regards to who look good from the voteanalysis and who looks bad (especially when knowing other peoples role)

Regardless i like his thoughts and this post. I think a scum, who knows the role of all the players, would not be as likely to consider mentioning this, as the thought only occurs naturally from a townperspective. I mean, it is very very weird if ppl voting for X nd then when x is getting a lot of attention is instantly convinced to vote y, because of X's case on y - unless you know the roles, i guess
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:37 PM   #1515
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Now witg ratchet I don't think he has such a plan. He is just lynching those who lynch him. Sort of revenge a bit. I would say that's low level villager play. Rookie Villagers feel pressure and lash back out at those exact people. But he isn't a rookie villager. He is a very well spoken and logical player by most of his posts so far. So he is high level olaying. The fact that he selects the people who voted for him (not BECAUSE they voted for him, nominally) makes me think he wants us to see them as legit scum targets but also wants anyone who suspected him to suffer an early demise.

So yea. It reads Hugh level mafia play to me. He uses decent logic unrelated to the votes for him to isolate out people who did vote for him. Seems too convenient to be accidental. And he is no amatuer, so the "rookie villagers do this too" angle flies out the windkw.
See, that would be fair if my reasons were completely flimsy. But I'd given some degree of voice to my suspicion on both Slendy and MSU, before they had even voted for me. I also don't like "oh, he is a high-level player, so he must have some alternative agenda at play here", which is exactly what this comes across as.

I do want people to consider them as legit scum, because I believe they are. Not altogether, but I am confident at least one scum is in there. The "suffer an early demise" thing doesn't make a great deal of sense either, because for Mafia Ratchet to want to get rid of those 3, those 3 would have to be town. The earliest I could get them all killed off would be Day 4, and by then, I would be bound to have more suspicion on me through all my supposed scum targets flipping town. So the notion I'd want to shut down all voices raising suspicion on me as early as possible just doesn't stand up.
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Im here guys! I know you have been waiting for me!
I have skimmed most of the posts and skipped some of the long ones ( I will try to read up on them).
I'd suggest reading Dorion'sposts at the very, very least, because he provides summaries of events often.
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(well, i will be off for some periods, but i will promise, i will be online up to eod. If not, you can all lynch me without feeling guilty, because then i just screwed up two eods.)
I don't like the <bolded>. It's like you're giving permission for us to suspect you, in an effort to come across as genuine and sincere. Like it's all "sorry guys, I'll try and help out but if I don't, don't feel bad, honestly!". Nothing particularly strong, but it comes across as false to me.
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:40 PM   #1516
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Good point on road if you guys ever mislynch me you can burn in the depths of mafia related hell tbh.
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:44 PM   #1517
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

So for a show of hands today, in a scenario if it comes down to Ratchet vs. MSU - who are you voting for?

Just quote this post and add your name:

MSU:
Ratchet: MSU
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:45 PM   #1518
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

MSU: Ratchet
Ratchet: MSU
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:49 PM   #1519
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Doc what are your thoughts on my belief Ratchet is scum due to the naked nature of his scum reads being three people who voted for him yesterday.
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MSU: Ratchet
Ratchet: MSU
shocked LOL
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:50 PM   #1520
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

And that was a errant multi quote post that shouldn't be there....but now you know that I also found Achro's comments odd.
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:50 PM   #1521
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Ok. Say Ratchet is mafia and has decided to put his 3 living voters as his top 3 scumreads. Of all 3, why does mafia-Ratchet pick Achromatic to make the huge case on first thing today? I'd think either of the other two who both had wagons the previous day would be the easier choice to make the big push on.

Achromatic - same question.
Because I've done this strategy before and it's the highest yield move. You target someone you don't intend to succeed on. List off a few people you don't trust. Go after the one you're least likely to succeed on, especially if they view you as a misguided villager. You can then go hard and show you are "trying" and they don't feel threatened so they don't retaliate. You have now a few posts of apparently legitimate efort that you can up and wall away from looking good. Even better, you can then go and move on to accusing your second or third person when the community all tells you that you're being a misguided villager. Exactly what you want to look like.

Been there done that. The goal isn't to succeed on achromatic. It might be to succeed on the second or third person. The goal is to fail in a way that further cements the "villager making classic villager mistakes"

But he's a pro. He's too good for that. No none here should be making those plays unless it's a feign.

That's my read at least.
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:56 PM   #1522
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Oh.

lmao.

I can't believe I just now noticed that dorian.

I still think Ratchet is town. I was on my phone and I just ditzed. Haha that's funny.
... I have little experience with this format, or how often an answer like this comes up. I would love to hear others' thoughts on this answer.
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:58 PM   #1523
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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... I have little experience with this format, or how often an answer like this comes up. I would love to hear others' thoughts on this answer.
You think he called him mafia without thinking about it?

Because Achro is a scum buddy of his?
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Old 06-18-2015, 02:02 PM   #1524
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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MSU: Ratchet, Slendy
Ratchet: MSU
Having a really hard time seeing Ratchet flip red aorn.
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Old 06-18-2015, 02:03 PM   #1525
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I would vote for you MSU but I would not like it.

Also I hope nothing is made out of what is essentially a typo, I mean really now <_<.
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