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Old 06-16-2015, 04:17 PM   #801
Achromatic
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
Psshh.

I believe that there is zero chance that five townies are voting on a town, and I am acting on my strong townreads. You're really trying to claim that's "0 accountability"?
H-have you never played mafia before? On day one, especially? That bolded is just laughable. Later on certainly, end day okay, but middle of day one to just lay that thought down is absurd.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:19 PM   #802
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

...

I've played a lot of mafia. In a game this small, it almost never happens.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:19 PM   #803
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Yeah, I get how you would want to disparage voting analysis when it looks bad for you.

Bhuber
No, I just like to point out mafia-esque behavior when it seems a number of players in the game are giving you a free pass as of right now.

Its pretty hard to have a voice in the game when I am not as active as I would normally otherwise be (i.e. working M-W this week is unfortunate but a reality for me).

So basically I just have to call people out without care of reprecussion.

Not sure what the general thread flow is/how people have you on their lists right now - dont really care either - just pointing out you're pathetically soft reasoning for casting your vote (and at the time you were considering landing it on someone who I have/had as a wolf lean up until I rejoined the thread).

So yeah, figured people should at least know that what you're doing is fairly wolfy (I cant really say "mafia-y" cause it sounds dumb?) in nature.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:20 PM   #804
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
Psshh.

I believe that there is zero chance that five townies are voting on a town, and I am acting on my strong townreads. You're really trying to claim that's "0 accountability"?
I suppose I cant help you when you believe that there is a 0 percent chance that 5 townies vote another in that spot when that literally happens all the time (especially on day 1).
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:21 PM   #805
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
...

I've played a lot of mafia. In a game this small, it almost never happens.
I see it happen a fair amount, disregarding that day one reads are the weakest therefore you town reading five people is a bit presumptive.

Yeah I don't think your mafia logic is in the right of way here.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:21 PM   #806
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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I suppose I cant help you when you believe that there is a 0 percent chance that 5 townies vote another in that spot when that literally happens all the time (especially on day 1).
In a 13 player game? When it's been the only large wagon all Day? Really?
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:22 PM   #807
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
...

I've played a lot of mafia. In a game this small, it almost never happens.
There's just a lot of weird assumptions that get you to that point. The first is considering "5 townies" as all town. From my perspective, your reads are far from infallible.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:22 PM   #808
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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His point is terrible. Vote analysis is an vital part of my play, and dismissing it out of hand is disgusting.
The only thing your analysis does is compound errors when townies are wrong, thats simply saddening.

As a wolf, its perfect justification for landing your vote on another townie with 0 accountability other than to say "everyone else was doing it".

Not that its beyond impossible that you could just be using poor logic as a townie, I just find its more likely you would do it as a wolf.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:25 PM   #809
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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In a 13 player game? When it's been the only large wagon all Day? Really?
Yes.

I've probably played at least 50+ games in this exact format - probably more than all of you combined (merely because I only play vanilla werewolf and I play it all on 2+2).

This wagon formation is basically non-unique to every game I've ever played and I am sure one could conduct some sort of case-study that would conclude this exact thing probably happens >25% of the time.

Without objective information, people get lazy on d1 and just wait till later game days to really start playing.

D1 isnt a crap shoot, people are just generally bad at knowing what to look for.

(i'd have liked to have had more time to help out with this, alas, I do not).
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:25 PM   #810
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

On the other hand I think this stupid argument from font is probably town based being the "oh hey, duh" moment she had coming to this point so that feels genuine but I think it is junk mafia theory at the same time.

Let's get more votes on Slendy. We need to power up this spirit bomb.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:26 PM   #811
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Sadly, no one really addressed the bolded posting yesterday (not that no one really addressed them, it just appears no one else had the same line of thinking I did).

Anyhow, I'll pull up some really, really small snippets for the sake of clarity/time.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:28 PM   #812
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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There's just a lot of weird assumptions that get you to that point. The first is considering "5 townies" as all town. From my perspective, your reads are far from infallible.
I don't think they're all town. I'm just pretty sure three of the six people involved are.

bhuber: I'd be less annoyed if you were caught up with the thread and realized I had laid out my problems with you before that.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:29 PM   #813
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Originally Posted by bhuber2010 View Post
The only thing your analysis does is compound errors when townies are wrong, thats simply saddening.

As a wolf, its perfect justification for landing your vote on another townie with 0 accountability other than to say "everyone else was doing it".

Not that its beyond impossible that you could just be using poor logic as a townie, I just find its more likely you would do it as a wolf.
If you think fonti could be mafia, what do you think of slendy and font's early interactions about bomb?
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:30 PM   #814
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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D1 isnt a crap shoot, people are just generally bad at knowing what to look for.
I think Day 1 is usually the most revealing and if you know what to look for, can catch things early on. I wish you'd been around more, I think you might've been good to play off of.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:32 PM   #815
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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I don't think they're all town. I'm just pretty sure three of the six people involved are.

bhuber: I'd be less annoyed if you were caught up with the thread and realized I had laid out my problems with you before that.
There isnt much I am going to be able to do about trying to balance being caught up/vs posting at all/interacting in real-time, I merely have a time crunch and I'll just have to do the best I can until Thursday (really only the first actual game day is going to be tough for me).

I doubt there are really many problems to be had but since I have been unavailable/preoccupied, I would presume the source of them is my relative inactivity compared to anything that you found mafia-ish? (wtf, I still cant find the right word for this).
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:35 PM   #816
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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If you think fonti could be mafia, what do you think of slendy and font's early interactions about bomb?
"could be" is a good way to strike it, I am not "set" on anyone being mafia - part of why people are poor mafia players is because they refuse to rebalance and reconsider their reads on a timely basis - they get stuck thinking someone is something until objective information tells them otherwise - often that objective information comes in the form of a mis-lynch and its already too late to reconsider reads.

Unfortunately, it appears my main two contributions today are going to be to ISO MSU and fonti since those were the two players that I called out yesterday. It appears that once I have more free time come the next game day, I will be able to offer more credible advice on the remaining players.

Let me read them both here quickly and I'll let you know how I feel about their roles in totality.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:36 PM   #817
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Wow. I just realized that the vote tallies are listed with the voters in alphabetical order instead of posting order. I guess I've been spoiled by our tally program that lists voters in posting order.

Warning: wall of text incoming.

I've been wrestling with where to put my vote for a while now. MSU's far and away the leader at the moment. Discounting the bhuber votes (cause OMGUS and...Swifting? aren't really worth acknowledging in my opinion), cue is the only other person with more than one vote at the moment.

If I voted for cue now, it would be for the same reasons I gave last night: potential information, concern I won't ever be able to read him, and a general disconnect on playstyles. None of those are terribly great reasons. I think cue actually said very early on about me that he finds such disconnects usually to be indicative of town. On my forum, I'd tend to agree. Here, I don't know if I agree as strongly, but it's certainly possible.

Riki was the other potential vote I mentioned last night. I hate, hate, hate the MSU vote. It was clearly for pressure at time when pressure wasn't needed. I felt tons of pressure with the 2 early votes I got, I'm sure MSU was already feeling the pressure with the 2 votes he already had. But everything else about her is really town, and many people agree. I think I'm just going to have to chalk up the vote up to culture differences.

I don't think I'm any more or less inclined to vote for Doc now than I was a few hours ago. Though I do notice that when I interpreted his read on me as at least a slight scumread and called him out for having too many scumreads, he quickly backpedaled his read on me to a null. His defense of MSU is what's got me thinking twice. Especially if MSU is lynched and flips town, Doc definitely gets less scummy in my eyes. At this point, if MSU is mafia, I think his teammates would be more likely to bus him.

MSU - man, I don't know what to think here. It seems too easy. Several people I like are voting for him, several of the people I'm considering voting for aren't voting for him. For much of the day he was the low-hanging fruit because of his absence. It's just too neat. The case against him basically boils down to being absent and posting "weak reads." If, like he says, he comes from a culture like mine that's way, way more relaxed about day 1's and reads, it's hard for me to fault him for that. The OMGUS vote...I'm not sold on the explanation, but I'm just not sure what him doing it says about him. I'm ok if he gets lynched, as he's definitely not higher than a null read for me, but my policy is, unless there's a really compelling reason, to vote for the person that I'm most suspicious of.

SmartBomb

I already started with my comments in 656. It convinced me to go back and reread his posts for the day. Aside from the already-much-discussed "I'm town" opening, it was a lot of fluff before the game got serious, which was fine.

His first real post is to put a second vote on me. That's eyebrow-raising to me (regardless of the fact that I was the one he picked), but town do it to get pressure going early too. I put my first set of reads out there and he immediately puts me near the top of his town list. I mean, it was appreciated, but in retrospect, it's a pretty big swing. Heck, road was called out by several for liking the same post of mine, and road was only forming a first opinion, not changing a previous one.



He pushes on road quite a bit, but claiming he doesn't remember any of road's posts before the 2 recent ones makes it a pretty ineffective push. And one that he eventually stops pushing.



He places the 4th vote on MSU, after Riki's pressure vote and MSU comes back to defend himself. I don't hate this vote quite as much as I hate Riki's vote, but 4th on a wagon isn't a whole lot better than 3rd, and he barely addresses any of MSU's actual new posts beyond picking Riki to shoot in Banks's little hypothetical.

He keeps pushing at Doc as well. As hard, if not harder, than he's pushed MSU. After rereading him, I feel like I expected his vote to be on Doc. Also, I note that 3 of the people he's pushed on/voted for today (me, MSU, Doc) have all been fairly low-hanging fruit because of our inexperience with this format.

That catches me up to post 656, which I've already gone over. MSU's drawing heat for posting non-commital reads. SmartBomb's bhuber read was designed to cast suspicion on him regardless of how MSU flips, and based on an assumption that I think is blatantly wrong. That's scummier to me than non-commital reads from someone who's been busy.

I'm not the kind of player to jump on one of the leading wagons at the end of the day just because. I'll switch if someone can convince me that MSU (or whoever else) is a scummier read. Also, I may not be around for the last hour or two of the day. If I have to leave, I'll let you all know when I'm leaving.
Ányone else that feels like this post is very constructed? I mean, the way of elaborating on his reads ending up with a vote on smartbomb based on some - in my opinion - small reads. I'm not sure I even agree with them, but it could be because I have read Smartbomb villager for most parts of the game.

THis could just be the style of dorian, but for me it seems like the whole post is written with the sole purpose of presenting Smartbomb as scum - but he had disguised it a bit in like discussing other players (s potential votes). Also I dot find the reasons convincing, which is why I find it unlikely a villager, who arep laying his first game on a new forum, would feel the need for presenting a scumread with so much (hidden) confidence.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:37 PM   #818
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Bhuber I call it 'scummy', to aid you on your endeavor.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:38 PM   #819
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

I don't think there is anything wrong, on the surface, of a constructed post. I think that's probably pretty null. It may be because I really liked the post biasing me though.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:39 PM   #820
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Achromatic: What information do you feel that a slendy lynch will give about other players? He's posted for such a short window of time and only right at the beginning, this is one step away from lynch-a-lurker.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:40 PM   #821
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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We need to power up this spirit bomb.
That takes like 5 days. -_-
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:43 PM   #822
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Achromatic: What information do you feel that a slendy lynch will give about other players? He's posted for such a short window of time and only right at the beginning, this is one step away from lynch-a-lurker.
I did not think about that. I don't care about information, I care about results. I read his posts, did not get town intent, so I am voting for him. Lynching for information is a nice theory that backfires more often than not. I am in the business of finding scum.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:44 PM   #823
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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THis could just be the style of dorian
Fwiw (which I know is absolutely nothing), it's totally the style of dorian. I'm sure anyone from my board reading along is agreeing.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:44 PM   #824
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

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Do you tend to view twisting as something you'd mainly see used by scum?
Yes, and the reason for that is I find it to be manipulative, and only really scum have reason to try and manipulate the Town at large. I'm not going to push that angle too much though, because I know for a fact others disagree with me on this, but that's one of the reasons you are lean scum for me.
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Old 06-16-2015, 04:44 PM   #825
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Re: The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 6

Okay, so fonti are pushing very hard for either a cue or bhuber lynch tonight. I agree with those reads - as i think they are the most scummy too, however that is not the reason why I read fonti as being villager. I think the very aggressive and constant push on these two - and not really considering others as being scum is villagery.

I mean, wolfs would probably open up for other votes, also in my experience wolves are rarely leading the lynch this early on d1, and finally I believe that it is typical villager to not consider their scumreads as maybe being town (and the opposite of their townreads)

fonti is now on my villagerlist
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