Signal-post: "Roger that": "Made me think MSU might be the Cop with a guilty on Ratchet" clearly not:

Why not?

i'm not even sure what you're trying to say here

It shows a level of levity that I think is incredibly hard to fake. See ratchet's rigidness at the end of day one for the other end of that spectrum.

You know, after I posted it and was driving around doing errands, I did consider that. It boils down to a couple things.

First, I've considered the scenario where road flips mafia and bhuber flips town, so bhuber's not in 100% of my mafia lists. It leads to endgame scenarios that are very messy for me to try resolve at this point, because I'd doubt it was Riki, I'd know it wasn't me, and I'd be left looking at who was still alive. I don't particularly want to feed the mafia the best kill-choices after Doc, so I'm not going any further down that path until I have to.

I'd also entertain Riki/Banks as a possibility, but as you said, that's pretty far down the line, and not terribly likely to me at a surface glance.

Second, say we lynch bhuber right now and he flips mafia. We're left with a pretty messy next day as everyone still tries to sort out me/Riki/road, all of whom are all still pretty suspect. Road's flip very much helps me (and hopefully others) focus the next day, and he's suspicious because of his actions and posts, whereas my suspicion of bhuber, while somewhat based on my dig through his posts earlier, is also from a fair amount of process of elimination.

That said, I'm 100% fine with lynching either today.

Please list scum teams without Bhuber.

first of all i think you're misreading that third post

it was entirely hypothetical and was talking about why i didn't think dorian was mafia, it didn't contain anything about my opinions of msu or his alignment at the time other than that i thought he was more likely to be mafia than you or ratchet

i mean like the thought that msu was the cop came to me but i'm not going to flip everything i think just because of that possibility

i don't really make reads like that

and it's still just possible that msu was mafia

also that post shows that i did think ratchet was town at the time

and i wouldn't think that if i was mafia with him

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

also, if i want to push for a mislynch over ratchet, me calling dorian town for like the entire day is probably counterproductive when i could've tried pushing him along with road instead

especially when msu had dorian as his second most likely mafia and would probably be happy enough about a dorian lynch for yesterday

i can kind of understand the logic that dorian is using but like

having a "pretty messy next day as everyone still tries to sort out me/Riki/road" isn't exactly a bad thing

more time to discuss = a good thing almost always

dorian

though riki also seems like a low-risk move given his play style is post a ton and say (comparatively) very little.

Dorian did some stuff very early on in the game (suck up to me) that doesnt do him favors. He actually threw some shade towards ratchet early, now that ive read almost every post. But then he spent all of day 2 just saying how little he trusts ratchet but never acting on it in any way.

And since the ratchet kill he's been.... just posting differently. Extra timid. Its nice to see he admits he sort of put himself into this situation (which I'd say is a villager thing to do) but he needs to play like he has something to defend (his life). All of this wishy washy "yea i messed up, but be nice and lets make me the one who messed up the least" is not to my liking. He wasnt a fighter on D1 or D2, but if youre going to have a profile bio that says you play a certain instinctual type of game and you are going to compliment me on being like you in my game play style, you have to actually live up to your claim. Take the fight to the others.

Since I think the odds of me going down at the end of the upcoming night round approximate 100%, lets hope I can stumble onto another person who is just plain trying to hard and gives themself away. Maybe that person will be dorian.

Also if anyone wnats to be the brilliant mafia theorist this round and drop my odds of death to 50-50 if you also pull out an amazing mafia read, I clearly support that.

I should add... its not like riki has been inconsistent about that. Hes been doing it since day one. He only says a a normal amount when you take all of his posts in aggregate and measure the net strategy. If you break them down and look at them one at a time, its 85% filler and 15% meat. (and im talking whole posts). This is a personal pet peeve of mine. But its because I dont say much and when I do its either directly explaining my activity levels (hint: always low), explaining my thoughts, or attempting some sort of bait of a wolf into walking down my primrose path. The latter gets called fluff a lot, but I promise it has purpose most of the time. If you can somehow say less than I do (especially at 10x the posts per day) I'm worried youre trying to look core to the game when really youre just agreeing to whatever others say and adding vague side thoughts with no strategic merit.

"who would you rather lynch between xxx and yyy" does nothing except show you have no convictions and are checking the temperature of the room.

i skimmed his filter but i don't remember him doing this

he replied to ratchet in his first post of the game (don't remember if he agreed/disagreed but it was about some generic mafia tell) and then called him town in the only other post he talked about ratchet in on that day

but... damnit... he is CONSISTENT about playing that way. So I cant say its not just who he is.

Im calling all of Day 1 "early"

One thing at a glance that looks bad for dorian is he gave a lot of amazing scenarios for Ratchet being scum and what it would mean for possible scum buddies MSU and Doc.

Like "Okay so if Ratchet goes down... here's how I turn this to my benefit" thinking.

it might mean nothing to you but that's how i get reads

like, tbh i'm primarily a meta player and a large majority of the reads i make are based on meta when i play on my home forum, especially early on

as a result whenever i played offsite i would just get frozen for like all of the early game because i don't know anything to say since i haven't played with anyone

(you can ask slendy, my play this game is probably completely different from what he remembers)

like i could legit post 100 times/day on my home site, which has a relatively inactive mafia forum, but when i played on vendetta-strada i'd struggle to post like 20-30 times per day despite that forum being more active

my previous champs game and this game are legit the first two games away from my home forum where i've managed to have a high post count

anyway, after a couple of games of being useless when i don't have meta, i just started trying to figure out new ways to play the game when i don't have meta, which in this case is asking a **** ton of questions and trying to figure out what people's thought process/progression are and whether they make sense or not

if you don't like it that's w/e but yeah

i thought i looked through all of his day 1 posts but i might have missed something

Another thing: Ratchet, to call Riki and Banker town, had to go through disagreement to issues to do so. Compare to dorian who he handwaves as town because 'we agree' and that just... seems a bit too simple compared the so many of his other reads.

Fair enough. Good thing there's three days, should be enough for rereads on everybody.

road/Banks is possible

Riki/Banks is possible but seems unlikely to me at first glance. It's not the best place to start, and would require a ton of rereading for me to get a better idea of.

road/Riki seems unlikely to me, but it's possible.

Beyond that, I'm left reconsidering others that I think are town.


If you say so. I don't think I'm posting any differently, and certainly not timidly. By my definition of timid, road is posting timidly. I'm taking the analytical approach I always try to take, and that always gets more pronounced as more info piles up. Hard to make much analysis on day 1 when there's nothing concrete to analyze.

It's funny, because I still do think we sound alike from our bios, but seeing your playstyle, it's not actually really that similar to mine at all. I don't take the fight to people in the way you do. I don't have to in most of my home games. I analyze the game mechanics, the role and action claims, make judgement calls on who's lying or what's most likely, and vote. Whether I'm right or wrong in the judgement calls, people often agree with me, and mafia rarely fight me. Very few people on my board have the strength of personality that everyone here does.

If you think I should be playing all defensively at this point, I disagree. Getting defensive (or freezing up) is what mafia do. Solving the game as best they can is what town do, and while I freely admit that I wasn't doing it hardly at all on day 1 because of my background, the more info there is, the more I'm focusing on solving the game.

In the end, I think the game either proceeds to finish with the mafia being lynched before me, or with me being mislynched at some point for my horrible early play. Mislynching me at this point I think gives at least a respectable amount of info, and while I'll do my best to convince others to find mafia instead, going down kicking and screaming isn't going to help my team solve anything.

I am up and around. Need to catch up and get out spew analysis.

Just something I was thinking baout last night before bed without checking the thread. Those who were ready to start the day on ratchet probably included a scum.

They saw their buddy be SECONDS away from being a day 1 lynch. It stands to reason scum would assume he would be a hot topic/likely check. The following day.

Rereading those pages also might hold some value.

Who is around atm?

oh wow 40 minutes since the post above mine. Yikes hope someone else is around or this will be village power hour with banks.

I can be sporadically around.

Funnily enough, only me-copclear-cop ever Voted Ratchet. So definitely no hard-ish bussing occurred.