Real quickly, since I have these quoted, I'll throw these in:

I quoted these yesterday mostly just to stimulate some discussion (and because I think/thought there may be more to them).

A term we often use here on 2+2 is TMI or (too much information). I dont know if that's a term you all use elsewhere so I am sorry if it seems I am explaining a stupidly-simple concept.

Basically wolves have TMI because they have knowledge of everyones roles. Often, mafia/wolves (**** me, I am going to mess this up all game), exhibit TMI through their posting as "slips". Not even the best mafia are able to mask this all game.

The bolded ARE NOT necessarily examples of TMI. The wording could be just as easily used, in context, by a townie. However, recurring plausible examples generally start to set off red flags in my mind.

The bolded often imply knowledge (or a higher-level of confidence (if font is town)) of anothers role - "you're probably going down the wrong path with bomb dude and dorian already told you why" is like a really, really hard post to make from the perspective of a town (especially this early in the game).

On page 2, a townie should be wary of virtually every other player in the entire game - using 1 players post (dorian) to justify easing fear over another player (smart) exhibits confidence in smart's role that a townie probably shouldnt have by page 2.

Its possible that font is a townie and was already fairly set in his read of smart...but I am/was just trying to highlight examples of when/where people exhibit confidence that is just not natural for a townie to have based on the information available.

__________


I am actually simply just going to cut off there because I dont want to get stuck over analyzing something from page 2 when there are 7 more pages of font's posts for me to still read. I may end up changing my POV on him entirely so I dont want to get tied up critiquing something that I wouldnt even agree with had I had more information (which I do!).

Word.

Nah, this is something. In my experience scum doesnt lie unless they have to - which is not the case here. It is noted.

But, did you write the post with the intent to get Smartbomb in a wagon? or just to put a little pressure on him? or just to show the other players what you think? Or another reason?

You don't think that him not wanting to reveal his reasons for voting me (which he never did come back to reveal) shows a town thought-process? I mean, withholding info to avoid scum-coaching may not be a process we all agree gets the best results, but it's a pretty town thought process to me. Then again, it's not terribly difficult to fake that, but you didn't say you thought he was faking town badly, you said you didn't see town intent at all.

I read his posts and at no point did I sense something that made me go "oh, this is a town thinking process." My criteria, admittedly, may be strange compared to some but it is mine all the same. There was no... spark of life that I think of when discussing a town mindset. Robotic, even.

Muh. This is something I've actually been attacked for (as town) from both townies and scum. I rescind my dislike of your read on me.

And this is where we disagree, but I kind of figured you'd have this view. (People who want 'pleasant' games tend to think of things this way, from my experience.)

Hmm I didnt consider this when reading it. I still dont quite see it. Well, reading it, when simulating that we know that fonti is scum and smart is villager, then i can see your point makes sense.

But, since you wrote that post fonti have been posting a lot - and you have been discussing with her. With this new information available, how likely do you think this is a slip up? and how likely do you think this is simly fonti's style?

Yes.

A little of all of the above, I think. I mean, at the moment I would prefer a Smartbomb lynch (hence the vote), but I don't think I have enough weight yet to realistically lead others onto a wagon with him. It's day 1 in a format I have no experience with. I'm certainly not as confident as you seem to think I am, and I think those with more experience are better off taking the lead this early in the game than me.

Yes, it was a little pressure to get him to answer my concerns, cause I think if/when he comes back, it will be close enough to end of day that they could easily get lost in the flurry. On the other hand, like I told MSU, a single vote on a person isn't really much pressure when the leader has 5 votes.

Above all, it was to show others my thought processes. That's the only way they'll ever be able to decide I'm town, barring a cop scan.

Votes from post 9 to post 835
Night in 2:59:55
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
4	MSU	bhuber2010 (29), TehBankertin (173), SmartBomb (37), RatchetOPB (51)
2	SmartBomb	dorian78 (28), Riki (131)
2	bhuber2010	MSU (32), fontisian (67)
2	Slendy	cue5c (115), Achromatic (56)
1	cue5c	DocEspana (25)
1	dorian78	Slendy (19)
1	not voting	road (52)

In further defense of MSU, what really got my attention is how he described my own play. I thought it was extremely thoughtful how he compared his last game to my play this game, like he was really mulling it around inside of his head trying to figure out my exact mindset. I liked that a lot.

The few posts that fonti and I exchanged recently arent really alignment indicative (in fact there is probably a fair bit of bias on both our behalves). I probably wouldn't offer an updated read on those posts alone.

___________________________

I went back and re-read MSU.

Its difficult for me to honestly assess him with such little time remaining. I would say that he is probably a fairly easy mis-lynch target given he has been tied up with work as well it seems which may make it more difficult to adequately defend himself if need be.

In a nutshell, I didnt see anything that was particularly gruesome/that made me cringe when reading the remaining 29 posts I had missed. I dont particularly care what people's interpretation of that this is but I don't really think he's the best lynch candidate today if that makes much/any sense.

Sadly, I wont have time to really sift through the thread and really offer a viable alternative. Again, my main contribution to this first game day is merely to try and throw my thoughts out there/clear myself so that I do not become a mis-lynch.

I think the village/town would be fairly well served looking through the posts of 1) the people who lumped onto MSU fairly early and 2) the people who soft-defended him early on when there was really no reason to do so (because they may have likely had more knowledge of his role if he is indeed a townie).

I'll try to be.

Also, while it seems fairly likely there is at least 1 more active/higher posting mafia, MOST mafia do not have the capability to stay adequately immersed in the thread.

I know all of you like to have conceited views of yourselves (maybe not, but probably most of you do ), but even in a game like this, it is STILL difficult for mafia to keep pace. I dont have time to really do this myself, but if you all are struggling to find a good mafia candidate, I would start by looking at some of the lower posters. From there, try to weed out the people you feel have good town equity, and then lynch from the remaining players.

Apologies for my inability to post more on game day 1 (although I still somehow exceeded some of you (tisk tisk)).

Bhuber I have a perfectly good spirit bomb waiting to fire at Slendy

Join me.

The only one saying they won't be here is bhuber I think for EoD

I think his fonti read is wrong not bad. I kinda need to reread him knowing he plays on 2+2 that automatically changes some things I was under the assumption of. Mainly bhuber have you played in any of the mashes I was in? Forgive me if I forgot. I was in Baldurs/Hidden Agenda/Anniversary/Fincher/Futurama.

He never appeared back (at least not when this was posted).

He did a drive by voting.

If I may chime in here, I think voting analysis is important, but I prefer it later in the game when we can see a series of lynch wagons and what they actually resulted in. I don't see using voting analysis as scummy itself.

KK so slendy is dead and gone. He flips whatever you want say you're right and scum. Who is the next kill? Like who else is scummy.

I get a bit antsy about voting an afk day 1.

Vote analysis later on is fine, I used it myself in the first league game I was in to crack some skulls. But day one is 'come on man'

Okay ignoring the fact that I dont agree with you read, I think this post is what I would expect of you (or most players I have no experience playing with) as a villager. however I still deduce a lot of confidence in the way your post was constructed.

Also, one more thing, I actually think everyone should be willing to push someone hard, if they think the person is much more likely to be scum than the other possible wagons. That is because it is so hard to deduce who they good players are - and who are good on d1? who are better on later stages. And we dont even noe other ppls roles - at least we know our own. But i like your view, and I was the same way n my first game on this site, but in retrospect I actually dont think it is the best way.

So, how come I find it scummy that you come off as i would like you to do as a town in the long smartbomb-vote-post? That is because I assume most ppl will be a bit "scared" or maybe just more realistic. Well. This was a long post about not that much.

So, who are your strongest villareads?

We see who died, and now we have a corpse of each faction 100% known to rip through and see what we can glean. I don't have a ready made answer for you.

I think you're playing really soft this game. Don't consider my push away from you a town read but a "give him some space read" I don't forget and even if you don't like the way I play or play a different way I've looked at your filter from game 2 and this game is very different. I mean this as a compliment that you played very well in that game and if you're town this game I'm not seeing it. Please step it up losing isn't an option.

dorian

Work has been really busy since I got here cause the housekeeping department are terrible. Trying to get my head into the game but I'm moderately out of it.

ROAD ON NOTICE FOR BEING SOFT AF TOO.

I die in the night go.