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The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4

05-12-2015 , 06:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spruce
So, I guess what I'm saying or asking or whatever, is that where asher's claim of soah going for an easy lynch may be true - though if, and I do mean if, something smells like Scum, and posts like Scum, it's not wrong for a Townie thinking that way to vote who they find scummy.

Again, if soah comes off sounding as if he's on an ego trip, I think that's mostly style related and site related, in my opinion. Were I to read soah as Scum, which I'm not saying I do yet, it would come from his throwing mud just about everywhere to see what sticks. Yes, brilliant Townies do it, but Scum love to do it even more. Maybe not with as much logical focus and effort, but in a championship game? yeah, maybe so.
ok, but wouldn't it make more sense to just say that this player (soah) is trying to lynch you because he's mafia trying to achieve his wincon and not because he's on an ego trip or something
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05-12-2015 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lissa2
Has gnaw really not posted since that thing about whether there were majority lynches? I thought he had, like last night. I guess I should check.
Oh, wow, he hasn't. whoops.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by soah
I decided that I have enough doubt about him that I'd prefer to push Gnawazan.

That's not to say that I actually read him as good. At least at this juncture.

And I'd also sorta prefer Gnawazan just because he's not ****ing here and hasn't done anything all game day not related to Phoenicks. At least if ash is a villager we'll potentially have an opportunity to figure it out in the next day or so.
I can get on board a Gnawazan. There was one post that I kinda liked where he shut down some of the mechanics talk early. But the push on Phoenicks was a little much.
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05-12-2015 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riki
well the first reason is that they're both there individually, i don't really try to look too deeply into interactions on d1 or before the first mafia flip

also i haven't actually seen that much of spruce pushing that line, unless that happened today and i haven't read it yet. i did think that spruce voting ashersky while kind of townreading him was weird and might indicate scum/town if spruce is scum (obviously means nothing if spruce is town) but yea i didn't really look into that much either
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riki
o

well i don't actually remember spruce pushing that line either so uh
No I mean asher was saying spruce was buddying Lissa. But eh, you're probably right, it's too early to look too hard at associatives. But if "Don't look at associatives Day 1" was a rule then asher/spruce would be the exception I'd make. I don't think they're both scum, and I suspect one is.
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05-12-2015 , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nolemonplease
I can get on board a Gnawazan. There was one post that I kinda liked where he shut down some of the mechanics talk early. But the push on Phoenicks was a little much.
You've been changing your votes a lot lately. Any reason why?
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spruce
Hey, I could always be wrong, but I made up my mind about No Lynches in the first posts of the game and I've seen nothing to dissuade me from that.

Someone brought up earlier that one of the advantages and, I don't know, even purposes of the championship series has been to avoid meta-reads on players from other games. It it really matters, you ask anyone on my home site and they'll always say, "spruce? Who knows", which kind of surprises me a bit 'cause I've always thought myself a pretty easy read.

In the baldur game (my only other game here - to get a pre-game feel of things), it was immediately noted (by wolves, btw) that my posting style seemed more serious than my lighthearted posts in the what, championship sign-up or check-in thread. Here, I'm said to be all fluff and nothing else, where that simply has not been true. I just like to enjoy a game that's a game and try to make it fun for others - championship or no. Do we really take ourselves so seriously?
i was more looking for reasons or comparisons than what your actual read was

what makes you an easy read iyo?
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05-12-2015 , 06:14 PM
nolemonplease
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riki
why would you make association cases on day 1 in the first place
um, because "Along Comes Mary", and I "Cherish" that "The Time It Is Today", a "Windy" day?
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by soah
It's helpful to figure out that one of your suspects can't actually be a wolf with any of your other suspects.

And, more generally, it helps you to realize that you're doing something very wrong if you can't get any set from your suspect pool to fit together as a coherent team.
idk, like yea it can be helpful but i don't think not having them should be used as an excuse

i would probably never be confident enough with a d1 suspect pool for the second point to ever matter
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05-12-2015 , 06:18 PM
bumping this post now that there are more people around who might want to respond to it:

Quote:
Originally Posted by soah
So I've been mulling this over a bit.

You've brought up a few of the things he has said which have held me back from having a stronger wolf read on Gnawazan. I've felt that they've generally been overshadowed by general body of work, but you've approached that aspect from a different angle than I have.

That is, I took issue with Gnawazan retracting his initial suspicion on Phoenicks. It looked similar to what a wolf (mr capps) did in Game 3 at about exactly the same point in the game. I bring this up as anecdotal evidence for those who found it to be inherently villagery for him to backtrack.

I questioned him on the backtrack for two reasons. First, I find that wolves are more likely than villagers to give up on an attack when they receive strong resistance against it. Second, the given reason for the backtrack did not seem to make logical sense. He says, "You forced me to focus on the fact that I am approaching this game with a set of assumptions/memes from a single source; that of my home board. There, putting another player at L1 without explanation is considered scummy by default." I would expect each player to have their own opinions on how to form reads, yet it sounds like he is saying that he will change the way he makes reads to match that of the players that he is playing with. It's understandable that players should adjust their reads to account for differences in meta between sites, but what he is describing sounds like a completely backwards approach to it: changing his reads to match how other people make reads, rather than changing his reads to match how the players play. Am I explaining that clearly? Am I misunderstanding what he wrote?

I questioned him on it and got this response: "I withdrew my comment 'for now' because I realized that I made it as a snap judgement based upon the behavior of the people I regularly play with. I still don't like it and it places him atop my suspicious list."

This didn't really clarify the situation for me. I was suspicious in part because it seemed like potentially a strategic retreat on his part -- he makes an attack and gets resistance on it and backs down. But then later he comes back and is straddling the issue. This is not inconsistent with my initial theory.

There are issues with his wording and general approach which trouble me. His general attack line, paraphrased, is "What you did is scummy," which is somewhat of an indirect attack. There seems to be lacking a direct "You are scummy" element. Those types of subtle things ping me because liars feel more comfortable if they leave themselves that type of safety net.

You're content to conclude that it's villagery tunneling. Sure, villagers tunnel. Does that mean that we should read him as a villager for tunneling as he did? That's a lot less clear. He said upfront that he is prone to tunneling and then proceeds to do it. So I'm not especially inclined to give it a lot of credit just on that basis. And I'm not seeing a lot that would make his posts appear more like villagery tunneling than that of a wolf who is just focusing on making one case to ride on. When I think of examples of notable village tunneling, I'm thinking of dozens of posts over multiple game days. A half dozen posts on d1 could mean anything. And Phoenicks has received suspicion from a variety of people so it's not like he's fighting upstream to make this case. And villagers who are tunneling don't necessarily ignore everything else taking place in the thread the way that Gnawaza has.

And as for bringing in Jrdrylie into the mix, he was already a component to be analyzed as part of Phoenicks's vote. I would not feel comfortable clearing Gnawaza just for taking that step. It was merely an extension of the case that he was making.
(I'll concede that I may have misunderstood the post which I originally questioned him on.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by soah
On average, though, wolves tend to maintain a narrower focus than villagers. Phoenicks has been talked about a lot by lots of different people, so a villager focused on Phoenicks has ample opportunity to develop supplementary reads. But a wolf pushing a mislynch is aware that all of his associative reads will collapse once Phoenicks is lynched. From personal experience I can attest that it's easy to just skip over doing that sort of work when you know it wouldn't be useful to you later on. So that is one example of how his narrow focus is more consistent with being a wolf than a villager.
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05-12-2015 , 06:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riki
ok, but wouldn't it make more sense to just say that this player (soah) is trying to lynch you because he's mafia trying to achieve his wincon and not because he's on an ego trip or something
You're thinking of ashersky, I think. I actually defended soah's 'logic' style, which is NOT my style.
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05-12-2015 , 06:21 PM
@Soah, I'm not sure I understand your second point -- Can you rephrase it? I honestly can't tell what it means.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phoenicks
No I mean asher was saying spruce was buddying Lissa. But eh, you're probably right, it's too early to look too hard at associatives. But if "Don't look at associatives Day 1" was a rule then asher/spruce would be the exception I'd make. I don't think they're both scum, and I suspect one is.
I think you are talking about me.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phoenicks
@Soah, I'm not sure I understand your second point -- Can you rephrase it? I honestly can't tell what it means.
The second post that I quoted? It was part of my response to this:

"I disagree with you that tunneling Humans necessarily still focus on the remainder of the game; I think it's more potential that a tunneling Human ignores miscellaneous information in order to zone in on the Player, but perhaps we've just had different experiences."
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phoenicks
You've been changing your votes a lot lately. Any reason why?
There's reasons behind my votes. I'm not changing my votes on purpose for any reason.

I tend to vote around a lot. Especially as EOD approaches. It helps me evaluate my reads and I can find information in reactions sometimes.

I decided to step back from ash, so I voted someone else that I suspected. I remember holding back voting him earlier because he already had plenty of votes. Voting Gnaw at the moment because he's been a conflicted read, and I've been hearing soah's thoughts. I'm interested in seeing what happens, especially with a lynch leader after the tally has been 2-2-2-2-2-1-1-1 for a while.
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05-12-2015 , 06:29 PM
Just a couple of things

Soah and whomever else asked this
Quote:
Originally Posted by soah
notquitethere,

What caused Jrdrylie to plummet to the 6th position on your list after you had been voting him for so long? Even when explaining your list it seems like you still maintain the same suspicion on him.
It's not like I find him less suspicious. It's just that on rereading the thread I've come to see other people as suspicious for different reasons. I don't think I reached a satisfactory ordering, but at this stage my suspicions of a lot players are very close together.

---

Jrdry
I'm disappointed you never gave me answers. If we're both alive tomorrow I'm following this up.

--

Spruce
Playing mafia shouldn't preclude having fun, I'm not completely humourless myself, but it doesn't obviate the town from having reasons for their votes.

---

As to the impending lynch:

Of the people currently being voted, I don't want Mashiii, Lissa, or Soah lynched.

Mashiii by far isn't the scummiest player so my vote goes to Spruce for his terrible D1 case (No Lynches' is thus also terrible, but I dislike his play marginally less).
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nolemonplease
There's reasons behind my votes. I'm not changing my votes on purpose for any reason.

I tend to vote around a lot. Especially as EOD approaches. It helps me evaluate my reads and I can find information in reactions sometimes.

I decided to step back from ash, so I voted someone else that I suspected. I remember holding back voting him earlier because he already had plenty of votes. Voting Gnaw at the moment because he's been a conflicted read, and I've been hearing soah's thoughts. I'm interested in seeing what happens, especially with a lynch leader after the tally has been 2-2-2-2-2-1-1-1 for a while.
This is actually a better answer than I was suspecting. I was going through your past posts and your recent vote spray seemed different -- but this makes more sense.

If Gnaw didn't show up before end of day, what would you do?
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:32 PM
I decided to look into spruce a bit and looked through his forum's nomination thread. My general impression is that spruce wasn't an entry meant as the best Player; in post 523, he states "Dudes, my aim is to flavour the thing up and likely get lynched Day 1, just like the baldur game. There's no way I'll advance with 2 regular 2+ Poggers in the game, even were I to correctly name all the wolves Day 1. And the official guide is even "best player", not "MVP". My play-style doesn't wash anywhere I've been yet, even if wins inch out losses. My aim is for the most players (and spectators) to have the most fun with it, and that usually means an early lynch lead." which leaves me uneasy regarding how he's been playing.

Kawamii, you could at least make an effort to contribute your opinion to the thread. Why did you vote nolemonplease?
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampionsMod
Question: Can you clarify the majority lynch rules for me?

Answer: There is no majority in this game except for at lylo for the sake of being able to keep the same schedule throughout the game. Whoever has the most votes at deadline will be lynched. I.e. if someone obtains a majority of votes halfway through the day, that person is NOT lynched and the day will continue on until the deadline where at that time the person with the most votes is lynched.
I'm used to games with fixed day lengths still having a lynch once majority is reached. I think I've only played one game I think where the tally at end of day (EoD) was the only one that counted.

So I pissed away a lot of time and effort on a misread of the rules.


Unfortunately I've been in bed all day except on the three occasions I spent attempting to throw up my stomach and other bodily organs. The only thing I've read up on is to find this mod post.

I'm going back to bed now.
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05-12-2015 , 06:42 PM
Okay Mash, that's an okay reason to hold off on Spruce for now as this is expected play and not necessarily alignment indicative.

Ashersky is still my preference.
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05-12-2015 , 06:43 PM
Ashersky
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05-12-2015 , 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phoenicks
This is actually a better answer than I was suspecting. I was going through your past posts and your recent vote spray seemed different -- but this makes more sense.

If Gnaw didn't show up before end of day, what would you do?
I don't really know at the moment. It's pretty dependent on stuff happening within the next hour or so.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spruce
You know we're not untimed here though, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gnawazan
Timed or not, putting somebody at L1 four hours into the game is pretty scummy.
What does "untimed" or "timed" imply here?
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gnawazan
I'm used to games with fixed day lengths still having a lynch once majority is reached. I think I've only played one game I think where the tally at end of day (EoD) was the only one that counted.

So I pissed away a lot of time and effort on a misread of the rules.


Unfortunately I've been in bed all day except on the three occasions I spent attempting to throw up my stomach and other bodily organs. The only thing I've read up on is to find this mod post.

I'm going back to bed now.
Sorry to hear that you don't feel well, but if you can muster up some posts right now it would be quite helpful, because as is I am going to try to make you dead.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kawamii
I'm not going to manipulate words and take them out of context to make a case out of nothing.

It's only day one and I see no point in overanalyzing nothing viable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kawamii
I think Gnaw is townie tbh, I think his post was reasonable he just needs more.
i don't follow
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote

      
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