***12/15 Super Mario Bros V+ Game Thread*** - Page 50

Votes	Lynch	Voters
2	Neverlucky16	JMurder3 (20), carolinacoder (29)
4	not voting	iamnotawerewolf (0), iraisetoomuch (12), Neverlucky16 (0), sugabat (0)
1	Error	Montecore (41)

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:02 PM

#1228

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

It's just a matter of, if Never's somehow not a wolf, what's the remaining team?

I think he has to be like 95%+ tho.

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:03 PM

#1229

Montecore

RPElf = +EV

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 82,273

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

Could be leafed, but touche.

Assuming you're a villager, which the wolves would know, only five villagers with night actions (assuming the 0 posters are modroleblocked). It's a possibility, but not worth bussing a bro over

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:03 PM

#1230

Montecore

RPElf = +EV

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 82,273

never

Vote counter is also methed up apparently

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:06 PM

#1231

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecore

Assuming you're a villager, which the wolves would know, only five villagers with night actions (assuming the 0 posters are modroleblocked). It's a possibility, but not worth bussing a bro over

Well, if Never's not a wolf, 2 people did bus Crimson, or IANAWW was wolfing with Crimson/Slighted I guess...

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:07 PM

#1232

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecore

Coder, how's that detailed EOD1 analysis coming?

Prob waiting to see if my tinfoil gets any traction haha.

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:22 PM

#1233

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

Votes from post 7 to post 559
Night in 0:09:56
---

VotesLynchVoters
3 iamnotawerewolf CrimsonFox (57), carolinacoder (46), Slighted (81)
2 CrimsonFox Montecore (81), sugabat (38)
1 sugabat iraisetoomuch (79)
1 carolinacoder Donat3llo (75)
1 iraisetoomuch Neverlucky16 (25)
1 Neverlucky16 iamnotawerewolf (35)
3 not voting BenjaminAO (0), NeedMoreManasi (18), Reaperlicious (0)

:00 good :01 bad

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

crimson

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf

Jfc. You guys need hand holding...

Manasi had put in BOLD 0 BOLD ****s. She is laughing at you guys.

Lucky copy pasted reads, randoed and ptfo.

But I'm a wolf bc I have a job.

Good Lord....

Quote:

Originally Posted by carolinacoder

I do feel bad here. I just dont feel like there is enough info on anyone not here currently to make a much better informed decision. But you have given me sufficient evidence that I no longer wish to vote for you. crimson

"You have given me sufficient evidence that I no longer want to vote for you" is blech when that post it was in response to was just an AtE.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

Votes from post 7 to post 573
Night in 0:04:56
---

VotesLynchVoters
4 CrimsonFox Montecore (84), sugabat (38), iraisetoomuch (80), carolinacoder (48)
2 iamnotawerewolf CrimsonFox (57), Slighted (84)
1 carolinacoder Donat3llo (75)
1 iraisetoomuch Neverlucky16 (25)
1 Neverlucky16 iamnotawerewolf (39)
3 not voting BenjaminAO (0), NeedMoreManasi (18), Reaperlicious (0)

:00 good :01 bad

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

Votes from post 7 to post 584
Night in 0:01:56
---

VotesLynchVoters
4 CrimsonFox Montecore (87), sugabat (38), iraisetoomuch (82), carolinacoder (49)
2 iamnotawerewolf CrimsonFox (58), Slighted (87)
1 carolinacoder Donat3llo (75)
1 iraisetoomuch Neverlucky16 (25)
1 Neverlucky16 iamnotawerewolf (39)
3 not voting BenjaminAO (0), NeedMoreManasi (18), Reaperlicious (0)

:00 good :01 bad

The interesting thing to me here is that if the wolf team isn't exactly Crimson/Slighted/NL/cc, Crimson & Slighted can switch their agenda to one with a loose villa vote.

But they can't join Don on cc because she's a wolf, they can't join IANAWW on NL because he's a wolf, & NL is on IRTM, but then they'd just have 3 wolves on one villagery poster.

If cc is a villa, they should both always be joining Don on her as she's fairly LHF.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace of Spaids

Votes from post 7 to post 595
It is night
---

VotesLynchVoters
4 CrimsonFox Montecore (90), sugabat (38), iraisetoomuch (83), carolinacoder (49)
2 iamnotawerewolf CrimsonFox (61), Slighted (89)
1 carolinacoder Donat3llo (75)
1 iraisetoomuch Neverlucky16 (25)
1 Neverlucky16 iamnotawerewolf (39)
3 not voting BenjaminAO (0), NeedMoreManasi (18), Reaperlicious (0)

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:24 PM

#1234

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

& cc can't vote for IRTM because she's been following him around all day.

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:25 PM

#1235

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

& Crimson had proclaimed his villageriness about 10 times.

This feels good.

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:26 PM

#1236

Montecore

RPElf = +EV

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 82,273

Now do it with me as the NSK

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:27 PM

#1237

Montecore

RPElf = +EV

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 82,273

#thefear

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:31 PM

#1238

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecore

Now do it with me as the NSK

With you as a wolf it's an entirely different type of analysis because you're leveling & not trying to get a villager killed.

The way that theory makes the most sense is actually if you guys think Crimson is the SK.

Kill him off, get credit, two go deep, easy wolf win.

I think that's a far less likely scenario, but quite possibly the most likely one if NL's not a wolf...

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:34 PM

#1239

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecore

#thefear

Well, I mean it could be 2 of irtm/suga/cc, but yeah, the same level of suspicion regarding potential bussing if my 95%+ world view isn't true doesn't apply to those potential wolf teams.

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:35 PM

#1240

iamnotawerewolf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 31,482

lol wolves, get wrecked

neverlucky

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:37 PM

#1241

carolinacoder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 7,319

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecore

Coder, how's that detailed EOD1 analysis coming?

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

Prob waiting to see if my tinfoil gets any traction haha.

lol, I 100% hate trying to quote stuff on this site and never said it was gonna be detailed.

Haven't read your tinfoil yet jmurder, but after going back through my new top wolf lean is: irtm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecore

Coder, how's that detailed EOD1 analysis coming?

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

Monte. Cliffs on Crimson? Or is it just the poor time, overall low engagement, low gake solving from earlier?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecore

Coder, how's that detailed EOD1 analysis coming?

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

crimson

Go read his iso, especially around eod

Gave some villaginess at the beginning of the day...I'm excited to play, blah blah blah, but for the rest of the day, no real reads, mostly just sheeping and making random vague comments.

He has his vote on Suga from earlier silliness and then jumps in thread, asks for cliffs from Monte, then six minutes later switches his vote with no real explanation other than villa ianaww would be better than villa crimson

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:38 PM

#1242

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

I guess there are 3 worlds:

World 1:
NL + cc (probably) or suga or IRTM

World 2:
Monte + suga or IRTM or cc (unlikely)

World 3:
IANAWW + cc or Monte or IRTM or suga

I'd put the chances by world at about 95%/3%/2%

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:38 PM

#1243

carolinacoder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 7,319

also there was a bunch of crimson/slighted banter about me, trying to get a cc wagon going that didn't gain traction...why would they do that if I'm a wolf?

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:41 PM

#1244

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by carolinacoder

also there was a bunch of crimson/slighted banter about me, trying to get a cc wagon going that didn't gain traction...why would they do that if I'm a wolf?

Don was parked on you. Isn't that at least as much or more traction than they had on IANAWW?

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:41 PM

#1245

carolinacoder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 7,319

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecore

Except I probably don't want the other wolves to suspect I'm the NSK, if I am a wolf/NSK

Leading the lynch on a heretofore lightly suspected, at best, bro seems a bit too fancy given the game state

Just Lynch ianaww and it's 6-4 pending the resolution of two zero posters and potentially multiple 60% fireballs

I generally abhor bussing, but I won't say I never do it if warranted. That said, I think it's safe to say I'd literally never do it in this exact game state

I agree with this, but as SK, Irtm might do this: see the tides are turning against the ianaww lynch and do a quick vote switch and his crimson for cred. At this point crimson really hadnt been that useful, but being low on poe would be much more useful

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:42 PM

#1246

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by carolinacoder

IRTM switched from suga tho.

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:43 PM

#1247

carolinacoder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 7,319

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

Don was parked on you. Isn't that at least as much or more traction than they had on IANAWW?

Exactly, Don already voting me makes me an easy target, but everyone else had me solid village and ianaww was less so at that point

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:43 PM

#1248

carolinacoder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 7,319

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

IRTM switched from suga tho.

I know...I said that already. He'd had his vote parked based on misunderstood joke from earlier.

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:49 PM

#1249

carolinacoder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 7,319

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

Yeah I really cant explain that one other than ianaww is much more experienced and therefore a threat and I had not been around for most of the afternoon.

Quote

12-17-2017 , 12:52 PM

#1250

carolinacoder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 7,319

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

Well, I mean it could be 2 of irtm/suga/cc, but yeah, the same level of suspicion regarding potential bussing if my 95%+ world view isn't true doesn't apply to those potential wolf teams.

At least one of these 3 is a wolf. Its not me. My original thoughts were solid suga as we all know but now I'm def on the Irtm train.

What do you think of that scenario Monte and Jmurder?

Quote

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