looks to me like ur staying pretty close to ur original reads

you go and restate ur reads without even bothering to read for the only important information

425 spew

whats even the point to give ur reads now other then to say ur doing work

Oh, you said "restarting" instead of "restating"

I put it there as a baseline for me to add on right after I look into the 425 stuff. It helps to have the night kill information so I can know that McAvoy is clear for example.

Day 2: 425 Analysis
This is the primary day of analysis because it is the day in which 425 claimed seer. Most things after that should be discounted since it's all a leveling exercise from there on out.

Crossnerd analyzes day one's lynch thoroughly and is the first vote on 425. It's a strong line of reasoning and quite a villagery case.


Good vote. Reasoning of 425 having the most wolfy end is good and 425kid attacks VM right back.

Good vote and good reasoning. Again, 425 attacks Roo for his posts against him. 425 was actually just in anti-spew already, and was adding on everyone who voted him onto his wolflist. VM, Crossnerd, Loretta, and Roo.

Good vote by Anarchist. Final vote before 425 claims.

Fluttershy's Friends & Fears

Crackedquads: Ram.
McAvoy: Seer peeked by Loretta.
Noah: 2nd vote on Zeestein. 5th vote against filthyvermin with a solid case. LenC Night kill "clears" Noah as a villager.
Anarchist: Encouraged Zeestein as a candidate for wagon. A key player and villager participant in the lynching of filthyvermin. Was also attacked by filthyvermin. Voted 425kid and forced him to claim.

TheMoocher: Votes Zeestein to bring it to 8-6. Also specifically addresses it as a Zeestein vs Nofear vote. Also, 2nd vote against filthyvermin.
TheNothing: 1st vote on Zeestein. Hostile interaction with him spews TheNothing as villager.
Dyenimator: A very strong 5th vote on Zeestein, bringing the vote to 5 Nofear, 5 Zeestein. Also attacked Zeestein earlier.
InsureMePlease: The final vote for zeestein last minute. Had the opportunity to instead tie the vote with nofear, but didn't. On day one, tried to lynch 245 instead of filthyvermin.

Pinkie Pie: Probably a villager because was the counterwagon to the strongest wolf. Voted Zeestein to tie it up 6-6.
Necro: Seer Hunt Cleared from Evene's Death.
Crossnerd: Votes Nofear at a critical time bringing the voting to 5 for Nofear, 4 for Zeestein. Voted for Anarchist in Anarchist vs Filthyvermin. First vote and presented a strong case to vote 425Kid on d2.
Alrighty Roo: Was an early voter for NoFear. Voted for 425kid on d2.
VarianceMinefield: Actively tried to save filthyvermin. Started a "compromise" CFD on Anarchist. Voted off-wagon in NoFear vs Zeestein. Voted for 425Kid on d2.

Willi: Votes Nofear at a critical time bringing the voting to 6 for Nofear, 5 for Zeestein.

BASaint: Voted off-wagon on the Zeestein lynch day. The night kill of Evene may have been because BASaint was thought to be peeked wolf.


I reduced some of my less confident villager reads to lean villager since I have too many of them. There are three wolves left, and I only have BASaint and Willi as wolf candidates now.

Given the early wolf lynches (3 out of 4) most of the analysis is based on those who voted for wolves at key times and how often they did so. There is of course at least one who voted a wolf for credit.

I give more credit to those who voted for Zeestein over those who voted for 425 or filthyvermin since lynching a power wolf is worth more than the lesser wolves. It's clear that given that I have only two players in the wolf category that at least one wolf lies in hiding and did attack a fellow wolf - I'd guess in the lean villager section.

BASaint

Simple case:

1) Voted off-wagon on the Zeestein lynch day.
2) Evene called BASaint a wolf and was killed at night.
3) In a world in where so many read as villagers, those who don't are likely wolves.

we still have a lot of claimable roles

if those roles are from our "suspicious" group, we could have close to a lock on the game

Agreed

Care needs to be taken not to celebrate "too early" since I want to look at the worst case scenario where wolves keep winning sheep. That means they could get an extra kill every two nights.

Of course that assumes the angel never protects anything, wolves never hit an immune villager, that the wolves actually win sheep, etc.

Given 16 players in the game, 10 "Clear" players is probably the stone cold lock on the game. 9 is likely good enough.

C-viggity is no longer with us, and necro is shc. That leaves Fluttershy, VMF and BASaint.


flutteryshy/vmf/basaint wagons

wolves obv won sheep yesterday, hence double kill

which means lock one kill tonight

and i agree with those wagon choices

How do you know they are winning sheep.....?

There has only been one extra kill the entire game, flutter what did you mean when you said "wolves keep winning sheep"?

they obviously won the sheep last night cause they got 2 kills

Wolves have won at least two games of sheep, so if the wolves keep winning sheep they get more kills (first win is a block, second win is a kill, etc)

Seems like a weird thing to say..

Errr, that was a quick recollection of the sheep prize.

I meant first win is a peek, second win is a kill, etc.

no, first win is a PEEK, second if a kill

ahh, sick crosspost and sexy avatar

i would **** that pony

ummm, what

I too would hug the pony.

loooooooooooool

Glad you guys are having fun...

Annie, what do you think of my posts about fluttershy?

crossnerd

You/Fluttershy/Variance/BASaint

has 1 or 2 wolves.

I think fluttershy is the most likely but i will give him today to post ldo

Just because I suggested your wagon?

Flutter, what do you think of my posts about you? Why did you try to stop the zeestein wagon? Why did you talk to lenc and ask about aksdal, who are now both coincidentally dead?

Crossnerd, your posts against me all make sense and I've kept addressing them by just saying: "Yes, I look bad for defending zeestein and pushing nofear." I don't deny that.

I tried to stop the zeestein wagon because I bought his self-vote. I thought it was genuine. It wasn't.

I talked to lenc and asked about aksdal because I wanted to understand why lenc thought aksdal was a villager?