Interesting. wp RT.

I'm villa. I think CT is likely villa. We have 1 neutral - my money is still on Vagos - and yes, I think ct is right that and darO has seen RT's wolf game close up

lol ashington wasnt roleblocked day 2

lol wat

if i vote tchaz yesterday as a neutral, neutrals win the game

Great - I didn't see the wolf team has been eliminated.

I think I'm spewed clear by Gad and hArdcore coming at me and then changing their minds and believing me to be villa and then immediately dying. Obviously that's not conclusive, but as I said yesterday would be a pretty bizarre thing for neutrals to do.

(Elite godfather flavour theorying imio btw)

irl guys - 5 min break

its ML/maj or something?

No ML/Maj in this game.

still confused about ashington claiming to be role blocked night 2 btw

ok - I'm back

What the actual **** was dar0 doing yesterday saying he'd seen RT wolfing close up? Just making up lies in order to justify his voting me? Weird.

However, as the wolves are eliminated I have to go back to my MWP theory and think he's a villager.

DWetz: I don't think you had a great looking day yesterday, but you were more wolfy than neutrally. Could you really be bussing acc in that spot? I suppose so given you failed to vig him. But if you vote me I think I just get lynched - too many of my other voters were too locked in mentally (or physically for vyk) to get scared by you 'being persuaded' to lynch me and switch to acc. So ct never gets to a position of being able to force the flip.

Vagos: kept constructively misinterpreting what CT and I were saying yesterday.

Overall I think the neutral has to be him. Some small % of the time it's DWetz, I suppose, but I really heavily lean Vagos.

The only way that makes sense is if either he lied because he forgot to peek (someone mentioned cphoya doing this), or if the neutrals had a role-block in some way. I don't see how the flavour of the neutral we saw makes that likely, but maybe we'll see in postgame.

The only other line of thought I had was that it was a spin-off effect from the darO vigging of Euro. Since we don't have the details of that who knows how it really worked. Eg I was thinking along the lines of it's a one-off power that allows him to vig a player, gets taken out of the game for the remainder of the day gets a one-off RB (isn't MWP know for his RB-ing as well as the season-long suspension) and then comes back into the game the next day as vanillager. Obviously we can't prove that and we can't ask darO because (i) he's not around and, more importantly, (ii) he can't say anything more about the role without being mod-killed - so he definitely should say anything

tchaz its vagos or you.
I and darO cannot be neutrals
dwetzel is highly unlikely imo.
now we are going to see which one of you/vagos is the most likely. then tomorrow its gonna be darO/dwetzel/one of you 2 for the f3 and I hope darO makes the right choice
vagos

i dont like for tchaz

i like for tchaz

tinfoiling to try to convince myself that I really am right about Vagos.

if either DWetz or CT vote for me yesterday then after the night kill we would be at 3-2-1.

If they kill the wolf then it's 3-2. They haven't quite won, they need a mislynch at f5 or f3.

If they kill a villa it's 2-2-1. From the practical point of view that's dangerous for them because RT was on to acc. So they (eg acc and Dwet) would need to persuade whichever of ct or Vagos they didn't dayvig that darO is the wolf. darO really gave a hostage to fortune by saying he'd seen RT wolfing and his low effort fits perfectly with the non-RT-wilves post d2. So they might think they could go that route - only one mislynch is needed, but maybe harder to achieve with RT stil in the game than two they would need if they kill him.


On the other hand, if ct or Dwet were to be neutrals and bus acc then we get to where we are now with 4-1. They need two mislynches (just like the kill-RT scenario up to). They have less fire-power (only one player left), but deeper cover. They probably get a mislynch today (of Vagos), and bring me to f3 and try either to mislynch me there or to get me to guess wrong - both of which look quite attractive scenarios.


Ok, how would that f3 look.

If ct was the neutral I'ld always be suspicious of DWet over the no-vig-vote of acc. And before the wolf being vigged and revealed Dwet had me as his top lean for being the neutral. To be fair, if DWet is villa he has RT as lock clear villa in that list, so he'd have to re-evaluate everything on the list in the light of new knowledge. So without looking closer there would be material for ct work with.

If dwet was the neutral...well today ct gave him mega-non-neutral points for voting acc. So I think the most obvious line for dwetz is to try to convince ct that I'm the neutral.And ct said just before the reveal of RT that "Neutral is in VAGOS>tchaz.
Wolf is darO >>>> RT". So that doesn't look too shabby for a neutral dwet.

yeah its vagos 95% of the time.

i just reread yesterday with the team vagos/accobra in mind. it makes perfect sense.

vagos keeps his options open to vote either me or tchaz all day.
try to ask for thcaz's voting intentions a lot, but doesnt get any real answer.
accobra sets up my option by voting me. if tchaz votes me, vagos jumps on me 100% sure. tchaz does not decide himself so they jump on the tcahz wagon instead.

really all 3 villagers look at yesterday with VAGOS/ACC as a team. everything screams they are the neutral team now.

I know it's not me! So I agree that it is most likely to be Vagos.

Is there anything you want me to do to clarify for you that I'm not neutral? Would it help you if I find the quotes of gad and hardcore pushing me and then retracting their opinion before shortly after being killed?

Is there anything else that would be useful? I can't think what at the moment.

I suppose interactions with acc would be one thing. I'ld have to go back through to see what they were exactly. He was calling me a pretty sure villa from several days ago, not just yesterday - presumably from whenever he first noticed me. I think that's more likely to be him actually thinking I'm a villa and trying to get me to be comfortable/not having doubts about him as a villa than setting me up as looking like a teammate if he was the first neutral to die, but I guess they might have run it that way - id-ing that I could be a late game doubt for people (yesterday people were ostensibly wagonning me for being the most likely wolf), especially if Vagos was involved in the planning. Ok. Well I can dig you the details of that out later.


As you can see from the post I was making whilst you posted this, I'm just trying to wrack my brains to see if I can see some way that Vagos isn't right and/or what happens if somehow it isn't him.

I'm going to try to write a little more, then I have to go out.

vagos you can concede really

tchaz what you could do to clear yourself for the undecided is to look up at all your posts mentioning acc, and vice-versa.

also you could quote parts from yesterday / or progressions in the light of what i just said in post #10516. it looks clear to me that you were being set up with me as second option.

no way that you are a team with acc and get all the votes yesterday without trying to set up something. i mean when acc voted me OUT OF NOWHERE (vagos must have been screaming in chat) you could have jumped on that easily but you didnt. i dont see you make that kind of play there.

Yes, I agree with this. Vagos is going to have to do some fancy footwork for me not to vote him. I'll certainly be looking again at yesterday later on today. For now jst let me try to find those acc moments on me earlier in the game and I'll carry on my tinfoil/emergency planning later

Ok, so RT spew means I'm never a wolf here, stop voting me.

This is the collection of acc's views on me. Our interactions near the start of the game (which I haven't quoted all of) were mainly over mechanics things - d3 over who the vig-shots were by on d2 and d5 over how the voting went on d4 .

The summary is that already by d3 he's calling me someone he strongly feels is a villa - and he keeps this up from then on. I guess that could be protecting me if I was his partner. As I'm not I suppose that it's a cost-free read for him to begin with and then later he's making an ally.



lol - so accobra_kid votes me d2 binkkles explains the difference between aft and utr re my d1 wagon.

d3 acc reads list I'm on my own in the middle as
d3 d3 d5 - but bear in mind that this quote (coming up) is 50posts or so after vyk makes a pop-in with "tchaz and accobra are both w0alves for the record" - gjge vyk - so he may feel he can make an ally by throwing a 'compliment' at me here

This is over choices of alternative victim for DWetz's heroshot.
and, in response to vyk voting me, on the morning when BJL died - which is what, thursday, d7? As you indicated, anything at this point is certainly being done with a motive.

I won't quote any more - basically he cosy's up to me all d7.