Underlined part is a contradiction.

my other suspect is accobra

if that alternative presents itself, I might reconsider

Check the novel of a case I just posted, thoughts?

That appears not to be true. I think you are an excellent player (from the little I've read and your reputation, lolpog drafter railer thread comments etc etc). Yet you are currently voting for a villa.

And you have given no reasoning, really. Ok maybe vky can vyk it up and get away with "it's all toan man - let's u and me go play black ops", but that's not your game.

So come at me with something concrete and I'll take it seriously that you are findlng players who are wolfing. At the moment you are mounting a somewhat comfortable defence for now against CT and cruising to mislynch me.

My SK-dar is pinging louder and louder every time both you and vyk post. Please help me come to another conclusion if this isn't true. You can do that by actually making a case on me that I can answer.

RT makes good points.

From the king of GOOD POINTS himself :Thumb:

Like I said earlier, it's a POE game at this point and you and CT followed by DarO are my POE candidates. I just have good reasons to clear most of the other players in this game. I don't really have a good reason to clear you yet, granted I'm not really familiar with your game at all and that's probably playing a part too.

I'll unvote you, don't really know what I want to do at this point, but I still have you and CT as my two most likely candidates to be the final wolf, again, simply by POE.

accobra

I think tchaz and CT are my biggest wolf leans at the moment but like I said, I feel more certain that accobra is a neutral then that those two are wolves.

No. It's not a contradiction. How could you possibly read what I wrote like that? The wolf would like us to talk about (and find) the neutral. If we concentrated all of our collective intellectual resources on finding the neutral and ground it out at night - 1m that would be absolutely ideal for the wolf. But it's not a complete disaster for him if that doesn't happen. ***I say*** at the end of the line he's not dead in the water if we don't lynch the SK.

Look, I desparately want someone to make a concrete case on me so that I can respond. But attempts to pull the wool over our eyes by misrepresentation/creative misreading etc are close to hard neutral claims (especially from players who are close to off the wolf list).


And, no, there's no contradiction in what I wrote about the neutral. The neutral wants all the conversation to be about the possible wolf - ***and*** to steer this conversation to ensure that the village gets the answer wrong (day-after-day, in fact). He wants no discussion of possible neutrals.


So you see the wolf wants us to (i) not talk about him (ii) talk about the SK (ii) find the SK, and the SK wants us t6 (i) not talk about him (ii) talk about the wolf (iii) NOT find the wolf

That's as pretty interesting case, RT.

Do we know anything about accobra's meta? Has anyone else played with him - and knows whether he's always itt early or whether not?

Also, why did you have to post just to check the results? Couldn't you just have had a look and come back later?

I do not, so if anyone else does that would help. Regardless of his role, he's going to say "I was just up early" so take it for what you will, just another piece of the puzzle potentially.

I didn't have to post, but I kept thinking "Gotta look like a villager, gotta look like a villager" and villagers post so I wanted to. Now I will say, my SK game was also my first WW game ever, so maybe that's part of it, but being in the thread that early almost every day strikes me as very odd.

We have discussed this ad nauseum. He is in no way, shape, or from clear due to killing Eurotrash. vyk07 is who killed Eurotrash by peeking him. darO just stepped in and put an outed wolf out of his misery. He could be doing that from any role. The only clearance you should be giving darO is if you feel his role (vig, disappear, reappear) is unlikely to be a wolf affiliation.

It's just that trying to bink the neutral carries with it a high chance of a villa mislynch. Trying to lynch a wolf carries with it a chance of hitting a wolf or a neutral or a villa. It's all about a lynch that maximizes our EV. Me, Vyk, DWetz are all saying this, does that make us neutrals?

Why not make the village waste a lynch though, and waste what appears to be a pretty useful one-time day vig in the process? Regardless of role, that's just dumb as a wolf, IMO. I might be willing to move him from "lock cleared from being a wolf" to "very very unlikely to be a wolf" if that makes you feel better, but practically speaking it's the same thing given time constraints.

Holding back your reasons is completely unacceptable at this stage in the game. What could you possibly have to hide if you're a villager?

Look, no one is familiar with my game. I've only played once before - was a villa, people thought a sparse d1 was possibly newb wolfy & I got killed in itas d2 after being tunneled by wolfy villa thedean1. In fact you were in the dvc at some stage iirc. There are some posts there, but not a high volume. And again, lots of words/post.

I looks to me as though you are throwing your hands up and saying "I don't have any reason for positively thinking anyone a wolf". If so, I guess there's not much I can do to change your mind, other than find a sure-fire wolf in the next few hours. I have suspects, but no conclusive proof and I don't think I would be a favourite to find such by eod.



Ok. Let's try another way.

Why is darO not Metta World Peace and a villager?



Also, genuine curiousity (not an attempt to undermine them): what have DWetz and acc done to convince you that they are villagers and later in your POE than me, CT and darO?

What I'm holding back are my thoughts as to exactly what I'll do in a f3 situation with certain players -- which is pretty unique to my situation and thus shouldn't really influence anyone else. Otherwise, I understand the point. I'm going to dinner with the family, and will check in by phone. (I'll be back at a computer well before EOD). I'll think about whether my saying what I am holding back will influence anything.

For reference, tomorrow is the 7+ hour drive home. Will check in a bit before I leave, follow by phone as much as possible, and should be home about 2 hours before EOD, traffic willing.

DarO could be that I guess, I'm more clearing him for the fact that his power doesn't strike me as something the wolves would have over a RB'er rather than speculating which NBA character he is.

Accobra I said last night is very likely non-wolf because of BJL spew. DWetz I just think has been very villagery in his reactions and tone for several days now. I don't see him being able to fake all that as a wolf. They can both be neutrals but will rarely flip wolf imo.

Hey accobra, you came back but ignored my case and vote. Why is that?

Glad that you saw there weren't contradictions.

I completely agree that we want to maximize our EV. We are indifferent as to which we hit if we are 6-1-1. (Obv, we prefer to eliminate a team if we are 5-2-1.)

If you are right in your background assumption - that we are more likely to not mislynch a villa if we concentrate exclusively on searching for wolves - then certainly we should do that.

And I agree that in the abstract trying to bink the neutral carries a higher chance of a villa mislynch than trying to bink the wolf - because the neutral has probably been able to wolf-hunt - or give the impression of doing so - all game and the wolf has had a harder time doing that.


However, I know (and you don't) that the wolf hunt is going badly at the moment. And tbh it's not much of a hunt. It's you saying you have no cases on wolves (or me at least) but prefer others as villas, and vyk giving us magic-readz.

So really what you are doing is villa hunting. (In the sense that you want to find them, not in the sense that you want to kill them.) Consequently, in this case - as things are working out - we aren't likely to bink the SK whilst trying to bink the wolf.


We've also just seen RT make a case for having found a neutral. More than that, albeit he may have more focus on neutrals than say you, he claims that he's more confident in his neutral than in the wolf candidates.


So I don't really accept we should arbitrarily limit our options at this point. (But if we actually do find a really good candidate of whatever stripe we should grab them.)


And no, I don't think that you, vyk and DWetz are all villas. (At least I hope not.)

Realized tomorrow is Saturday so that won't matter much. Still, don't expect snappy response to anything.

That's reasonable, and I agree that it seems very fps as a wolf unless Euro had to leave the game for irl reasons and they made a plan around that.

You see, I would have thought that that makes darO less likely to be a wolf than acc, but you've probably got better feel for the weighting. Because I didn't really see so much from the BJL spew. I mean he makes a case, but he's really on the back foot to begin with, so idk if this could be providing acc with cover once he flips.

I meant to thank Vagos for explaining his thoughts on acc, Dwet and darO in that last post, but clicked send too soon - so ty.

I'm going to go and eat for a bit - be back in ? 2 hours?

Votes as of post 10324
Night in 04:08
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
2	accobra_kid	DWetzel (24), Richard Tanner (25)
1	tchaz	vyk07 (13)
1	unvote	Vagos (32)
4	not voting	accobra_kid (18), confirmedtroll (22), tchaz (38), darO (0)