I certainly have this point firmly in mind. I wasn't awe-inspired by Vagos last night, but it's probably not fair to be too critical of him at, idk, ~midnight on Thanksgiving day. Howeveer, they certainly need to give some actual reasons.

As I said above in reply to DWetz, the SK wants to mislynch a villa tonight. I'm a villa and, it appears, a mislynch target.

There are no real arguments that I'm not a villa. The two people who at different points pushed for em to be wagoned/made cases against me were Gad and Hardcore. Both of them changed their minds.

Gadarene went from trying to wagon me d1 to (in response to a BR reads list which had me right in the middle of the line up) "read tchaz's long catchup post last night -- I know he's not interacting or anything in it, but the thought processes there are soooooooooooo hard for a wolf to fake " (his last comment on me itg).

Hardcore went from calling me a lock wolf multiple times one day to "I liked his response to me yesterday" (his last comment on me itg) after having read my reply to his case the next day..

(Inter alia, this also makes it pretty unlikely for me to be a neutral as immediately vigging people who previously doubted you but have come round to thinking of you as a villa doesn't seem like a great neutral strategy.)

Nothing has changed in the way I'm playing nor have I done anything suspicion raising (afaics), so I think it is almost vanishingly unlikely that anyone will make a coherent case that I'm a wolf. Which leaves SK people with magic reads, sort-by-post-count rather than content (& even tone) of posts and lack of spontaneity, or w/e, to fall back on. People doing this are good candidates for being a SK imo.

Vagos asked me for my strongest wolf candidates last night. He notably didn't ask me for my strongest neutral/SK candidates - and they are now very likely to be even more of a threat. But I'll answer it anyway.

My current thinking is that there is a strong likelihood that there is (at least one) neutral in { Vagos, vyk }

WTF? I want to lynch tchaz, I think you're misreading what I wrote. When I said you're the last wolfy person in the POE, I meant along the POE chain. Like after you, all the people on my POE have very clearing stuff. You don't. Sorry, that's just how I see things.

lol listening to what you're saying right now. You want to try and hero lynch a neutral (which, let's all admit, with this 8 man lineup, is literally throwing darts, ANY ONE CAN BE A SK/PART OF A NEUTRAL TEAM).

You tell me I'm the worst player in the game if I try to lynch you today (you have NOTHING clearing) and now you want to put Vyk on the table? Who is the clearest person in the game. WAT??

Vagos, if you believe DWetzel and I are n/n teammates, he could've just shot me at vyk07's urging and waltzed through to a postgame victory as nobody would ever suspect him of being my partner.

It's the same reasoning used to discount the possibility that he and I are w/w.

ok i have to go for dinner now:
vagos:
.why is vyk clear to not be a neutral? how do you explain vyk surviving over bjl and kruze the last 2 neutrals kills. really, give me ONE credible explanation. same for you, since youre on paper one of the best players left.
-you say everyone is clear. i say no. why is daro clear? why are you clear? why is RT clear? who did you daro/RT out as wolves, which case did they uncover?

im back long before EOD, but not soon

See, this is how I know Wetzel is non-wolf. His agenda is villagery. CT's is not.

Let me emphasize a point: If there is truly one last wolf, his only hope is obviously going to be to talk about the neutrals as much as possible, turn the village into a blind man shooting at 7 other targets. That's exactly what CT is doing right now, and to a lesser extent, tchaz and even RT are doing this as well.

DWetzel gets it (which means he could be neutraling ), our goal right now should be to find the wolfiest player and lynch him.

***Yet, when I mention CT, he wants to thunderdome with me and put Vyk on the table.*** Fellow villas, look at that and tell me if it's a villagery progression/agenda.

But, in this scenario, as a neutral how would I ever know that Silman was about to be peeked and revealed? The decision's already made. Go look at the posts on that day before Ash chimed in.

I agree that that is an interesting place in the game. Let me, for the sake of the argument, agree in supposing that vyk is a neutral. Do you want to argue that he's essentially just using you as the most convenient mis-lynch candidate?
(In this case it's a vig and he only has to persuade/twist the arm of DWetz, but that's not really important.) Wouldn't there have been better candidates? Even Hold'Em himself, maybe? Or maybe you can persuade me that you were the easiest to sell. It would be good to hear more from you on this.

Btw, I noticed that just as he was getting day-vigged Hardcore was pretty insistant that you were a villa and we should read his posts to see why. I can't really see where in his posts he means. But will it help you clear yourself if you tell us what we should be looking at there?

I've already gone over most of this stuff, if you didn't read it, weebeyshrug.gif

If you're a wolf here, you're making it too obvious that you're neutral hunting and not wolf hunting.

I've already said why certain people are clear, and you and I went over my resume for this game tirelessly the other day. Really not going to rehash that. I'm pretty much done defending myself at the 'blue in the face' level this game. If that's what you're trying to get me to do here, it's not going to work. If you think I'm a neutral, fire away, but it's going to be wrong and it's the definition of a shot in the dark.

CT, all the "who are is the last neutral" talk is fine. Yes, we need to get one in order to win. But prioritizing it over hanging people who are more likely non-villagers is Just. Not. Going. To. Happen, no matter how much you want it to.

No, I realize that, I'm just playing out all the scenarios. Let's say Silman wasn't peeked but also that you don't end up in a must lynch subthread with Vyk having the deciding vote. You're probably still going to avoid mislynch to someone like Silman or BJL given that we can assume the same dynamics that unfolded between you and Vyk in the subthread would have occurred in the main thread near EOD. My only point is that I think you're overstating what a lock lynch you were after shooting Holdem. As much WIL as you were showing at that point in the game, I believe you took the shot with the faith that you could defend yourself and slip out of the lynch noose should Holdem flip villa (regardless of whether you're a neutral or a villa, or in the 1% chance you're a wolf).

Honestly, I took the shot with the faith that it would either turn out great and I'd be clear or it'd turn out badly and at least I wouldn't have to play with the troll any more and could play WW. When I sent it in "will I get lynched for this" was not really on my list of things I gave a damn about.

Sorry I made a mistake and thought you were voting for him, haven't seen a VC in a while.

But lol @ who's slipping. Did you really just say there is a 0% chance you want to lynch tchaz when this was the last post you made yesterday for about 11 hours?

So you want to lynch me or Vyk now? Or, more specifically, you want to take stabs at the neutral rather than smoke out the wolfiest player. Do I have that right? Jesus dude, you're howling right now, I seriously have no clue what your role is but you're doing everything the last wolf would do right now.

Seriously, I implore everyone to look at that post I just made and specifically the red parts. He hasn't said anything since the post yesterday that would indicate he's backed off tchaz. If it's not a slip, then he's just not even paying attention to his own thought process. Which do you guys think is more likely?

I'm convinced that's a slip, I want others to chime in. He said yesterday the last wolf is tchaz with an emphatic "GG" to cap off the read. Now he has 0% intention to lynch him today. Probably because CT is the last wolf and his intention is to lynch neutrals.

They call that TMI.

Ok just got back. Pro tip: Don't go BF shopping at noon, all the good stuff is sold out. Pretty much a waste of time.

Good to see we've had some posts in the interim. Reading them now.

i just reread the 110ish posts tchaz made this morning

all of them. i cant see him being the wolf. i can multiquote all the posts and blue out the parts a noob wolf cant say.

im not a wolf, its incredible that you cant see it. it would be my second game ever as a wolf. there is no way im in the top posters. my sole wolf game i had 20ish posts all game. i derped spewed myself clear on d2. i would never launch the crusade against effen as a wolf. never ever.

i will never humiliate myself by trying to make cases on strong players like you, only to be retorted "Lol thats all you have". if you dont realize i CANT be a wolf there youre either a wolf, or i dont know what your plan is.

seriously leaving. but go on talking about me when you think im away. like turn the thread against me while i eat. if youre villa youll be responsible for the loss, if youre wolf gg i was the only one to try to bust you.

im out for real

lol and he goes on.

So I guess when you said you were leaving for dinner 30 mins ago, you were just lying?

FWIW, the underlined is the same sort of logic I used in the SE Posters to win a f3 as a wolf. People are a lot better at wolfing after 1 or 2 go's at it as long as they're willing to bring the WIM.

And just lol @ you claiming you'd never bus a vanilla wolf for one day when he's already in danger and basically not even playing the game. There's just no way that can be true.

Also, I guess after all that, you can't even provide like, a list of your top 2 wolf candidates? Just wanna talk about why me and Vyk could be neutrals and should be on the table today, then bounce?

I'm assuming that the SK either knows who the wolf is or can make certain with one peek. That's a pretty reasonably hypothesis (if you work through it - I won't bore the thread with the calcs) and even if it isn't 100% the SK would be able to do this to very high probability. Then this argument doesn't apply - he zaps the wolf if the wolf kill takes his first life. The big advantage for the SK keeping a tame wolf is that he only needs 2 mislynches that way, whereas he needs 3 mislynches if he lynches the wolf immediately & uses him as a fur coat. (This is the pure GT bit.)

Plus he has a big ww advantage: if the wolf is still alive then he can engineer mislynches on the basis that 'such-and-such is wolfy'. If he lynches the wolf tonight he has to get through three mislynches where he has to convince the village that the mislynchees are SKs.


Agree this is an important consideration for us to think about between now and, idk, eod-minus90m. (After that it'll probably get too het up for correct reasoning to prevail.)

If tchaz went from "last wolf GG" to "0% I want to lynch him today" with no thought process in between, then at least indulge me and tell me who you think the wolfiest players left are? Just give me 2.

Ok bunch of stuff to cover:

Vagos: I get your point about wanting to lynch the wolfiest player overall for fun and profit. My issue with that is that we have separate wolf leans here. I like a tchaz lynch, you prefer CT. I've seen the case you're making on CT and I'm seeing the contradictions and the scrambling, so I may come around here in the next few hours but if I don't, you and I will have to fight about whom the wolfiest player is.

I think I have a good idea who the neutral is and I think we benefit from killing him (if I'm right LDO) esp. if he has 2 lives as we've talked about.

CT: Yeah, gonna need you to talk us through that whole "tchaz" flip please. Looks like you're just throwing darts trying to get a mislynch. That's not pro-villa imo.

Vyk: Where you at bro?

DWetz: think you've been good today

Dar0: Can you talk about that Euro kill at all re: your power? You said you couldn't earlier and if that's a condition of your role ignore this obviously, but any info would be good.

SK theory coming in the next 30 minutes, I look forward to your thoughts on it Vagos.

No - I think you are incorrect. Have a think about it without worrying about what would look best for you, because atm you're saying things that I think are false, and imo (unless you can convince me I'm wrong, ofc - which is always possible) that's going to work out worse than holding your hands up and saying 'ok it doesn't look great but you should put all of the weight of your decision on this'

The quick points here are:

(i) We know there was 1 wolf on the final Effen wagon (TN). She was probably under lots of pressure the next day anyway, even without Ash's peek.

(ii) Two villas did actually snipe right at eod from Effen to Kruze: BR and Hardcore. (Hardcore's snipe failed, so I suppose it's arguable that people discounted it, but actually I don't think that's right.) Neither of them got any pressure at all for the snipes. If Kruze had been lynched then maybe things would have been different. But in that case we would have had BR and Hardcore under pressure as well as TN and the other wolf (setting aside suspicion on you, Ash & Hold'Em),. The wolves aren't outed, but rather mixed in with villas acting in exactly the same way.

I'm just doing some black friday shopping br0

I mean I think I still have my vote on tchaz, I'm not against lynching him at all, but CT is certainly on my radar at the moment and if I had to pick two wagons, those would be it.

I laid out my thought process last night wrt who the wolfiest players left are and so I want them to be the wagons. I realize the SK or neutral team is as great a threat to the village right now as the wolf team, but for me it's just simply a matter of what's easier to find.

Haha nice, just got back myself. Fruitless in terms of stuff, but fun to be out in the craziness. Stay safe