Good morning village, just a few things to respond to before I go out and try to enjoy the BF carnage
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
I don't think the SK would want to take out the last wolf at all -- it ought to be in the SK's interest to speed up the game as much as possible to get to the end, I think. Just as it's in our interest to eliminate a team however we can to control as many lynches as possible. I may be overthinking it though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tchaz
Agreed with this. Assuming that it is 6-1-1 and the SK has decent protection of the sort Richard T was discussing last night (eg 2 lives) it is GTO for them to keep the wolf in the game until f3 and lynch them there (should be easy as they know who the wolf is). For the lone wolf, in this scenario it is GTO to lynch the SK today and then he's at f6 and if he survives the lynch gets to decide the game at f4. For us is doesn't matter which we lynch provided we get one of them.
Summary: (in this, probably the most likely, scenario) the wolf wants to get the SK, the SK wants to engineer a mislynch. Bearing this in mind will give us clues going forward (eg tomorrow).
I don't think what you guys are saying is accurate here. Let's assume for the moment that the SK has two lives (no way of knowing obv) they really won't do him any good at this point if the wolf hits him.
If the wolf kill is missing tonight, we (and the wolves) can assume it hit the SK. At worst they can just target him the next night unless the SK can bink the wolf that day. Worse yet, if the wolf is someone like tchaz/accobra (our two likeliest lynch targets right now) they may just out once the writing is on the wall and end his chances completely. I think the SK benefits more from being the only bad guy left in most cases. I can see what you guys are getting at though, so I'm willing to admit I may be wrong here.
That's really irrelevant though compared to this:
From our perspective, the possibility that the SK has two lives (which I'll admit, until tchaz asked me for potential powers, I hadn't considered) means we need to try and lynch him over the last wolf (who is, in all likelihood, a GF or RB which are both basically vanilla now) tonight.
If we lynch the SK tonight and there is no kill or the kill passes to the second wagon (we may have to get a little fancy with the votes tonight), then I totally agree it's in the wolves' best interest to finish off the SK tonight with their NK.