Agreed with this. Assuming that it is 6-1-1 and the SK has decent protection of the sort Richard T was discussing last night (eg 2 lives) it is GTO for them to keep the wolf in the game until f3 and lynch them there (should be easy as they know who the wolf is). For the lone wolf, in this scenario it is GTO to lynch the SK today and then he's at f6 and if he survives the lynch gets to decide the game at f4. For us is doesn't matter which we lynch provided we get one of them.

Summary: (in this, probably the most likely, scenario) the wolf wants to get the SK, the SK wants to engineer a mislynch. Bearing this in mind will give us clues going forward (eg tomorrow).

Just quickly - I have to run off to the shops, but I'll be back in 90mins or so - and yes acc I see lots of what you are saying and will get back to it --

I understand the point, but I gave warning ahead of time what my schedule for Tues-Thur would be like and things turned out pretty much as I expected. On Monday I said I would be in Tues night n-3h to n-1h, Wednesday would be more complicated and Thur from n-3h onwards. In fact I got to the thread on Tues at n-2h and stayed until eod, Wednesday was a 'mare and yesterday I got here at n-2h and stayed until n+3h, having done lots of preparation before whilst still on the road.


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It isn't just Tuesday to Thursday I am worried about. You have been pretty absent almost all game. If we can afford a mislynch you are the one to do it to just because I don't see how you can possibly make a really informed decision at f3 if it comes to that.

And that comes from someone who doesn't post a ton myself, but at least when I do you know I am paying attention to everything even if I get stuff wrong.

Good morning village, just a few things to respond to before I go out and try to enjoy the BF carnage

I don't think what you guys are saying is accurate here. Let's assume for the moment that the SK has two lives (no way of knowing obv) they really won't do him any good at this point if the wolf hits him.

If the wolf kill is missing tonight, we (and the wolves) can assume it hit the SK. At worst they can just target him the next night unless the SK can bink the wolf that day. Worse yet, if the wolf is someone like tchaz/accobra (our two likeliest lynch targets right now) they may just out once the writing is on the wall and end his chances completely. I think the SK benefits more from being the only bad guy left in most cases. I can see what you guys are getting at though, so I'm willing to admit I may be wrong here.

That's really irrelevant though compared to this:

From our perspective, the possibility that the SK has two lives (which I'll admit, until tchaz asked me for potential powers, I hadn't considered) means we need to try and lynch him over the last wolf (who is, in all likelihood, a GF or RB which are both basically vanilla now) tonight.

If we lynch the SK tonight and there is no kill or the kill passes to the second wagon (we may have to get a little fancy with the votes tonight), then I totally agree it's in the wolves' best interest to finish off the SK tonight with their NK.

Have to head out to meet people right now (The more people you bring with you, the easier it will be to trample others LDO) but I think I have a theory about who the SK is.

Will take it to the lab and see if it makes any sense when I get back.

Stay safe today fellas, its a goddamn madhouse out here.

I'd argue that the day three lynch, xxsooted over VMF, was the most pivotal in this game. We'd just lost four straight players, and zdye724 had likely been peeked and was about to get blasted.

I voted VMF that night, so if you think I'm a wolf you obviously believe I decided to bus him in what turned out to be the closest lynch of the game, one where the final vote count could've easily swung in the other direction.

Tight v/w wagons like this are a poor opportunity to bus. This has been confirmed: only one of the five wolves who've flipped since then voted VMF. Effen, Silman, TN and of course VMF himself all voted for xxsooted.

The very next morning, VMF, myself and three others were thrust into a must-lynch subthread before any new game developments happened. If I had decided to bus VMF the night prior, wouldn't this be a perfect opportunity to keep up the charade and vote him out? I had several hours where I could've cast the deciding vote against him. Instead of pulling the trigger myself, I let darO earn all the credit.

If you think I'm a wolf, explain how this makes any sense.

why?

You feel it was a random shot that just happened to land on the vig?

why do you say that he was likely peeked at the time?

or do you mean that based on what we now know, it is likely that he had been peeked before being shot

Didn't you say like a day ago that you were more likely a neutral/wolf than I was? lol, now that I'm actually suspecting you're a non-villa and essentially taking you up on that offer, you want to thunderdome with me? #notagoodlook

This is just plain wrong and you know it. Your defense here is not villagery just for the record in case you are a villager, for future games. I'm trying to look at all angles today, since we are up against it. If there's 3 non villas left then we probably HAVE to lynch them all in succession to win. You just want to vote tchaz and call it a day? Ok, I don't.

Now who looks like he has the shady agenda?

Your SK point makes sense but certainly not the n/n point. We can't eliminate you as a neutral teammate of accobra for the simple fact that you refused to shoot him. Ya, maybe you would have been lynched for shooting holdem instead (funny enough, you didn't get lynched 2% came through huh?) but taking that chance is obviously better than shooting your own teammate, no?

zdye724 was killed n3.

okse54, the wolf seer, was killed n2. I'd have to go back and check loohsle's posts to be sure, but I recall there being a discussion around if the wolves would receive his n2 peek or not. I'm not the best person to ask about order of operations for night actions.

In any case, wolves had two peeks, maybe three, so yes I think it is quite possible that zdye724 had been peeked. What's the alternative, they just took a shot in the dark and ended up binking the village vig?

a couple of quick replies to ac and then I'll catch up

Although I didn't think Kruze was a good wagon at the time (and said so), I completely agree that at least three villagers did think so. So, you are surely right that voting for Kruze on d4 in and of itself is not suspicious.

Howeve, in the words of Sherlock Holmes, let me draw your attention "to the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."

That is what is making me suspicious. If there was a (now) still-living wolf (or wolves) on the Effen wagon, why didn't they do anything?

Now that I'm basically taking you up on this you want to thunderdome lolol

I think you asked this same question earlier. Final vote tally was 8 for Effen, 5 for KruZe... so it would take two snips to flip the lynch. When Effen eventually flips wolf, it looks extremely poor for the two people who did something and would likely result in their death.

While in some ways I agree that taking a hard look at day 3 is worth doing, and I do plan to do that myself (but don't expect a massive MQ or anything), I totally disagree that zdye had to be peeked. He was a pretty darn consensus villager from very early on, and killing a cleared villager is never a bad thing. It's not as though they were power role hunting at all -- see: Ash living.

@ Vagos, I'm not particularly interested in debating it, in great detail but: 98% chance (probably about 8% too high, but you get the idea) and then 100% chance accobra gets lynched after that if I flip bad. Against that, 100% chance of one dead accobra if I shoot him and then a very good chance I fade into the background for a while. Not shooting him would be a highly -EV play. (You might argue that so was shooting Holdem, and you are probably even right.)

im not the one with my vote on tchaz.
there is a 0% chance i want to lynch tchaz today. are you slipping here?

You're gonna have to explained the underlined to me. Are you just saying you want out of the game immediately, so you're rooting for a scenario where you get mislynched, even if it significantly decreases the village's chances of winning?

explain these points in relation to you dont wanna lynch tchaz as well

yep i know for a fact, like with 98% certainty that either vyk, or you, or both, is a non-villager. that I KNOW.
it is really weighted towards vyk being a neutral, with the possibility that you are his partner.

i think that we should aim at a neutral today since there is a high chance size(neutrals)>size(wolves) right now.

thus i cannot eliminate lynching vyk today, from my point of view

No, I'm saying that in the event that accobra flips as a bad person and not the last member of the team, you are entirely justified in thinking that I am his baddie teammate based on my prior actions. I'm not, but it's going to be a cloud hanging over the rest of the game that is going to be unavoidable.

At this point my goal is to get us as many lock-cleared villagers as possible so we can lynch down the rest of the list and win, or at least make f3 easier. I don't particularly care if I'm that guy at the end or not. But if I get to that point with the cloud over my head, the village W% has to be really small, so it's better for the village in the long run to probably bite that bullet. It's the same reason I'm fine with hanging tchaz despite my belief that he's probably a villager -- I can't see any way in the world that if he's a villager that goes to f3 that we win this game, so I'd rather get the inevitable over with.

All I know is that if you two were a neutral team, you refusing to shoot him is as good a play as any. You'd probably be hung eventually if you did go through with the shot simply because of how much you wavered on it, I dunno. Or you could be some 2 man neutral team that has an extra life or something and even if you did actually shoot him as a teammate, nothing would happen which would give even more explaining to do than having shot Holdem. There's lots of possibilities.

I think you're overestimating how likely your chances of being lynched were solely for the Holdem shot. Silman got peeked, so if you don't end up in the must lynch subthread, you'll skate by and keep doing your thing. Even if he wasn't peeked, him and BJL were just as much in the line of fire as you. As such, everything unfolded terribly (you got into a must lynch sub thread with Vyk of all people having the deciding vote) and you still managed to slip off the noose.

facepalm.gif

The clear best play for the village is to eliminate a team. That takes away kills from the equation and lets us lynch more people. The only way it might help us is if we get baddie-on-baddie violence, but that's not something we can control anyway, and lynches are.

Either way though, we're going to have to hang neutrals and wolves to win. So let's hang the least villagery people and hope that works.