Yeah there's a lot, but I think I lost the right to complain about mechanics talk about a year ago lol.

Quick thoughts on who to lynch today as it stands now?

That's the crazy thing, TN was never a legit wagon that day apparently! CT told me I get no credit for helping Vyk start her wagon cause "she was never getting lynched that day." That argument is such nonsense though, because it's obvious that the wolves (there were as many as 5-6 still alive at that point) helped to stonewall it. The 3 TN voters were me, Vyk, Ash. Any of you other villagers out there (I guess Vyk could still be a neutral) could have easily climbed about but EVERYONE resisted and settled on vanilla effen/villager Kruze. And clearly, there's a still a wolf among you that helped to resist that wagon.

I do remember you hoping aboard too RT, but it was a total sponge of me and Vyk essentially. Honestly can't remember anyone else who would hear of a TN lynch that day, despite overwhelming evidence of her wolfiness.

FFS, LK had more votes (4) than TN (3) at like 1 hour before EOD, I'll go dig up the VC now.

40 mins before EOD, Ash actually hopped off and it was DWetzel who got onto TN with us, but there was no other traction. But Effen was just fighting for his life and BJL and Silman weren't even voting (lol WILves) so meh. Still, there is a wolf or two out there who firmly resisted the TN wagon and my stink eye is on CT.

No, you're misreading me. I actually *do* want you to talk about neutrals to me (in that post).

[quote=tchaz]
Both RT and vyk quickly denied that they are neutrals or serial killers, each on the ground that they would have done it a whole lot better. However their reasons for this are a not completely perfect imo. [quote]


Again, you've mis-read me. I say *they are* not *there are*. I mean both you and vyk deny being neutrals.


Minor point: BJL was a wolf, so he wouldn't have been mislynched.

But there's no value in killing Ash for a neutral lone SK here. He's not making new clear players because he's either peeking wolves, who we then lynch, or villas, who we are paranoid are the wolf gf. (And as you say, a nSK probably peeks villa.) And Ash wasn't really clearing villas through making a circle of trust itg.

Besides which, why waste a kill on the seer when you ought to get help from the wolves to mop up the outed villa seer? If you kill the seer they may kill some terribly wolfy villager instead of you chosing a Hardcore and them having to kill the seer.

(Obviously in this case it looks like the wolf team fpsed the seer situation, but my points still stand. And you can still eventually kill the seer if you really want/need to.)

Thanks - that's pretty useful for me, at least.

My take on that day from recollection is we had Effen/TN wagons, we got a couple more votes on Effen, and then the Kruze wagon started to get some steam and it was necessary to kill one of the Effen/TN wagons to make sure that at least ONE of them hung over Kruze (as by then Kruze had actually sort of attempted to play WW for a day or so). I know I switched from Effen (seemed slightly wolfier) to TN and back to Effen (for reason above) that day.

Ok. fwiw I voted for TN mainly on the basis of your case, with a side order of Ash being so definite against voting for Effen.

I was looking at that day end because (i) we've only had two days without peeked wolves since d1 and (ii) I was trying to see if we could deduce the last wolf/wolves from why they didn't snipe to Kruze at EOD.

My fault man, I'm used to people hating my talk of neutrals so I read that post like you were insulting me, messed everything up.

Sorry

But the SK can't know what Ash will do though. Agreed that he's not going to lock clear anyone based on a peek given that a GF may be out there, but recall that the wolves had pretty much mailed it in and were going to get POE'ed very quickly (sortbypostcount would've basically been as good as Ash's peeks, may have been what he was using lol)

But really, it doesn't matter. A SK should want a village doubting itself everywhere. He should want us facing a f7 or f5 with zero lock clears and a all potential wolves (or as wolfy as can be that late). He ignored Ash, and I find that odd.

I see your point but I disagree (at least until I see the SK's role and realize I'm probably 100% wrong about some important point). Agree on the "Why not expect the wolves to do it" part, but really, with the SK having a DK, he should've seen the wolves were ignoring Ash for some reason and killed him imo. Again, kills just strike me as odd right now.

Yeah no problem. I consider neutrals the most fun role in the game (haven't wolfed yet but I can't see that being more fun that being a one-man team). You get really cool powers typically and are all by yourself, it was a ton of fun in 2.0.

Here was my POE from earlier today:

So this was before BJL was vigged. One key thing to note is that BJL flipping wolf looks really good for accobra in the non wolf dept so I would move him down behind CT and probably DarO as well. Accobra could def still be neutraling, but BJL did basically nothing this game except for tunnel accobra and last night, when BJL finally came to participate it looks like he's trying hard to setup an accobra mislynch. No offense to accobra, but based on his contributions from this game and his utr reputation, he doesn't strike me as the kinda player you anoint the wolf cpt and try to spew clear for an end game win, so I just don't really see BJL and accobra being w/w here.

Obv tchaz has another full day to clear himself but honestly, I just went back and read a couple of his first posts upon returning an hour or so ago and if it's just gonna be roundabout commentary for 6 paragraphs a post, it's gonna be difficult for me to press on. tchaz, if you're a villager, just tell me who you think the wolf/wolves are and why.

I also want to mention that I think Wetzel is almost NEVER a wolf here and that his range is pretty much narrowed down to villager, SK or n/n with accobra.

CT is like the last person in that POE order that I can honestly point to and be like, hmm, ya ok, he's done xyz that has been straight up WOLFY.

Anyone from DarO/accobra to Vyk flipping wolf on my POE would legit surprise me. That's all I'm thinking of at the moment is who are the wolfiest players left. I dunno if that's a mistake or w/e to basically ignore who might be an SK or a neutral faction, I've made it to a couple end games as a villager before, but none had 3 factions in play.

np

Ok. I see what you're saying. I'm not sure I completely agree, but I'll think some more. I mean, are we really so far from from the good situation for the SK now - we're at f8 we have no lock clears (do we?), and we can't all be potential wolves given vyk purposefully peeked the wolf vig (barring extravagent fps there followed up by wolf-team-baring-vyk getting itself out of the game asap). So it has turned out ok for him, by your criteria unless I'm missing some point.



I see your point but I disagree (at least until I see the SK's role and realize I'm probably 100% wrong about some important point). Agree on the "Why not expect the wolves to do it" part, but really, with the SK having a DK, he should've seen the wolves were ignoring Ash for some reason and killed him imo. Again, kills just strike me as odd right now.



Yeah no problem. I consider neutrals the most fun role in the game (haven't wolfed yet but I can't see that being more fun that being a one-man team). You get really cool powers typically and are all by yourself, it was a ton of fun in 2.0.[/QUOTE]

I forgot about the Loosekanen part of that day -- he was the one that was getting pushed and IMO forced the Effen/TN wagons to consolidate (and, possibly, manipulated onto the lesser wolf). I haven't the energy but the inclined might want to do a detailed vote breakdown from that day to see if anything stands out.

I'm about to call it a night, but I know off memory that there was a big DarO mq that basically concluded LK=wolf and a few people (RT, Effen, Holdem) sponged it immediately as the vote counter I just quoted suggests. We know Holdem was a villa and I feel pretty confident that RT was just firing back at LK for tunneling him.

The question is was it villager, neutral or wolf DarO that got it all started for wolf Effen to climb aboard and allow a couple villagers to give the LK wagon some real steam?

Before I exit for the evening, in summation, I'd be pretty surprised if the wolf or wolves isn't in tchaz>CT>>>>>DarO just based on what I can surmise from the entirety of the game. Will look into some more stuff tomorrow (in particular a re-read of both tchaz and CT).

Well I'll say this, I think we have a few clearish players from my view:
-Vyk and Vagos seem to be our clearest.

-Then there's Dar0, CT, and DW who each have a big "?" on their ledger imo

-Lastly there's accobra and you. You've both been on the lower end of the post count and I don't recall a ton from either of you (this is like my #1 bad guy tone read). Vyk mentioned he thinks there's no chance accobra is a villa, so I'd like him to explain that as well. You could easily be the last wolf here.

At this point, everyone has some good and some bad in their game so there are no lock-anything's anymore. If I was the SK, I'd be ok with how this currently is, yeah, but I think I'd prefer Vyk or Vagos dead and BJ still alive. That way there's one less villa capt. and one more player we're going to spend a day lynching (who isn't the SK obv).

By killing BJ, he took out a likely wolf and put himself one person closer to the noose. Of course, you could argue he thought BJ was the last wolf, and that's valid, but we can't know that for sure.

I don't see how it's ever wolf DarO.

I'm seeing if I can find/push reasons for events. But ok . At the moment I don't have MQs of people etc. So mainly on vague reads I would say that accobra and CT are my leading wolf suspects. I have some suspicions about acc from the voting d4 and not really having noticed that much from him (although I agree I'm not the best to judge that or in the least hypocritical position) - and I worry about him cosy-ing up to me. CT I had as somewhat suspicious earlier itg, I thought he improved, but i didn't like his case on Kruze (or re prizes d4). Otoh, I don't understand why he didn't vote Kruze if he is a wolf.

What do you think of my darO = Metta World Peace , therefore villager hypothesis?



fwiw, At this point the neutrals are probably as powerful as the wolves, so we hve to be equally worried about both.

That I do think is a good point.

if youre gonna start something on me about day 4 and the effen lynch im going to T DOME you all day on it.

dont start a potential mislynch on me vagos

resisting the TN wagon??

you start to not make sense. I had my eye ALL DAY on effen why would i jump on TN?
you were moving forth and back between people, i even told you "Are you going to start a CFD?" because I KNEW you were going to try , I KNEW IT, you told me "no no did not plan on it"
just after that you voted BOO RADLEY.

come at me on day 4, im gonna crush you really

this guy had an agenda.

go on with this thinking..

vagos if youre really suggesting me being the lynch today youre either:

1. a really really terrible villager and you would be responsible for our loss even more than boo and kruze.
2. not a villager

saying that im on top of your POE when the Dwetzel/accobra deal isnt solved, tchaz/darO have 100 posts in 1 week, and vyk has been kept alive by neutrals over bjl and kruze for one week is just utterly terrible

You can probably eliminate solo SK from this equation -- doing what I did gets me lynched about 98% of the time the next day, the other 2% being "Ashington reveals another peeked wolf".

I'd contend you can also eliminate n/n for mostly the same reasons, but I concede that's less certain.

I don't think the SK would want to take out the last wolf at all -- it ought to be in the SK's interest to speed up the game as much as possible to get to the end, I think. Just as it's in our interest to eliminate a team however we can to control as many lynches as possible. I may be overthinking it though.

I'm pretty much only interested in lynching accobra or tchaz today (and I actually think tchaz is a villager, but the "sudden show up and try hard" thing could be symptomatic of a last wolf as well). My reads have been pretty dismal most of the game though. I'm pretty sure accobra dying will spew me villager except in the specific case where he flips a part of a neutral team, in which case you're just going to have to lynch me and get it wrong, so selfishly I want that most. Plus vyk has his amazingly sick toan reads (that he still needs to explain) going that way too.

What is it about my d4 voting that you are suspicious about? I voted KruZe, and I admit I got it wrong. Mistakes happen.

You're missing the bigger picture in all of this. Three people (vyk07, Vagos and RT) have already voted for you. Exactly how many of them have provided a reason why you're a wolf?

None. There's things to like about everyone else remaining in the game except you, so in their eyes you have to be the last wolf by process of elimination.

I noticed this and am critical of it because the same thing has happened to me, in this and other games. Go back to DWetzel winning the vig, start reading and show me how vyk07 arrived at the conclusion that I should be shot. You won't be able to, because he pulled my name out of thin air without justification.