BTW on the MQ, Henrik.

Hold'em and Tanner for as generically w0alfy as their b0dy of w0ark has been this game, are rand >>> villager

magic

yeah Holdem i still kinda wanna call a villager somehow

(but he needs to STOP with this BS)

but Tanner, idk

need to give him a good read

darLOL might be a wolf tho

How about we try to find a wolf to vig, so when I do shoot them it's actually a good thing, instead of laying clever traps for the villager who really, really doesn't care any more?

fwiw I have been thinking about CT's lost wolf suicide killer theory for some while as well. We should definitely consider it seriously - without throwing tantrums if at all possible. Obv I have 0 experience, but it feels - especially if TN is the wA - that we are almost at the stage of being able to calculate at least some stuff (at least to a high degree of probability) if we can keep calm and help each other figure things out.

Independently of his role I think RT set out the case for and against this pretty well.

BTW, sorry if this has been discussed, but we still don't know which team shot Monikrazy, right? It wasn't a suicide day vig, different flavor.

Isn't it possible this is a lost wolf vig? In the games I've been in anyway, lost wolves tend to carry with them a one time vig, not a full vig.

wtf? you have to out your peeks immediately at start of day - because otherwise you can be another victim of the suicider and then we don't get anything at all

Hey dudes, still out at the restaurant but I'm following along for Eod. People should stop hassling Vagos IMO. Dudes a villager.

Yeah I realize this now.

@accobra I peeked TN because I've misread her in both roles in recent games, wanted to be sure.

I agree with tchaz saying ash should out peeks immediately but if he's around (very important) and he gets a villa peek isn't it optimal to wait until he sees the EVENT tag fly up to avoid the SK/lost wolf hitting his cleared read?

for reference

It occurs to me this may be considered and angle. Probably best we ignore it. Sorry.

For reference, he later retracted the read on me on the basis that he got me confused with someone else.

yeah just skimmed darLOL, he's been absolutely turrrrrible this entire game

prediction: he is Metta World Peace

yeah i saw that, wasn't particularly found of it...

No it's not quite so simple as that. Ash - who's about as lock as we get - although we still have to have 1-2% doubt - was on the Kruze wagon. You I guess will say it was a good wagon - don't be results oriented. So could sniping wolves. BR did a.59 snipe to the wagon. Hardcore did a failed .01 snipe to it. Are they getting pressure? No.

Summary: the wolves could easily have done this snipe and ridden out the consequences - particularly in view of the fighting itt today - some of which I fear must be v-v

Ok - the numbers game. Things to think about before you all sleep.

Start with say 12w/1n or 12w/1lw. Wolves kill Kruze and the nk - Effen still unflipped. Numbers are 9-7-1 - is that too much of a gamble to go for? What about if they do control the 'suicide' kill? Then it's 8-8 as we go to eod today.

Alternative start scenario: 11w/1n/lw. Taking that snipe would give 10-6-1 or 10-7 + controled kill = 9-7 . People with experience of wolfing/seeing wolf teams in action: do the wolves somewhat expose themselves to go to 9-7?


Assuming no more information we lynch TN tonight. We must have a good clear second wagon in case she has angeled herself last night.

In any case we then need to be very calm and figure out who is where on the affiliation spectrum (as far as possible).

i had forgotten about that.

Which part?

tchaz,

she is not a day angel

I don't think that's an angle. (Ash can ask Looshle, I guess, if he wants.)

Ok .. I see - if Ash thinks the villa is more important to the village than the possibility of him being around the next day to give another peek I suppose that's not bad. (obv Ash doesn't give villa roles) I'm straining to see why that could be, but it's a possibility.

that's who I assumed Kruze was

the part where he misunderstood something so he could slink away from his biggest wolf lean, lol

this is awful too:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=3124

Hmm. Vagos makes good points.

I'll definitely ponder that.

These tchaz posts just ooze villagerness to me.

I like the format they're written in. I like the timing, often hours after events have transpired. I like how he makes a detailed case. I like how some of his theories are a bit out there and sometimes disconnected from the game.