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11/15 NBA Mishmash Game Thread 11/15 NBA Mishmash Game Thread

11-23-2012 , 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagos
Not really, the Gad/Kruze combo is the toughest one to make sense of for me. I'm not sure neutral Vyk would day vig Gad in that spot after tunneling him relentlessly unless he really was just genuinely optimistic that he would flip wolf. I think Vyk said earlier that if he was a neutral, he'd push to get Gad lynched rather than vig him, but lynching Gad is hardly an easy task.
welcome to last night

Quote:
Originally Posted by tchaz

Richard Tanner - please talk more about neutrals. No, really, please do.

Both RT and vyk quickly denied that they are neutrals or serial killers, each on the ground that they would have done it a whole lot better. However their reasons for this are a not completely perfect imo.

vyk said he would have lynched gad and Kruze instead of killing them and strung hardcore along instead of killing him. I suspect that he could have strung hardcore along. However he wouldn't have been able to kill Kruze until today because we had outed wolves every day since Kruze got day-vigged (including that day). And he'd have to have had gad lynched over Effen - which I don't think would have been easy, and I don't think that even vyk really believes would have been as esy as his casual dismissal makes it seem - or (later) over an outed wolf.
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11-23-2012 , 09:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
What I was thinking of holding back, but the hell with it:

There's no chance he's getting lynched today and I'm fine with that, but I'd better get it out there: unless vyk can start to elucidate reasons for his reads (and, Atlantic City or not, there's a long weekend ahead), it's reasonable to assume that he's getting those "reads" as part of a SK/neutral role that gets peeks each night. Failing to off me in the subthread and taking out Boo instead is one tipoff (not that I'm not grateful, of course), and if he's right about accobra as a wolf, it's time to start looking askance. Don't even think another minute about this post today because it doesn't matter, but ponder it over the weekend. He really needs to be voting accobra today, he's had a strong read for a while now, there's a good chance to lynch someone he says is never a villager. If he doesn't, he outs himself.

There's still no chance he's a wolf because he never outs the wolf vig, though.
The thing making this unlikely has been his play (until today). It's pretty bad to ask to be Villa Capt. as a neutral because it pains a target on your back.

That's not proof positive that he's villa, but it is a flaw in the case I think.

Vyk as a neutral has been a common thought from a few of us though.
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11-23-2012 , 09:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tchaz
I'm not a fan of the way Vagos is spinning stuff against CT and then retracting with saying well that doesn't really matter the important thing is...
What am I "spinning", exactly? What have I retracted?

I'm standing firm that you and him are the least cleared players in this game. Do you have any interactions with wolves that might clear you? Who were some of the wolves you pushed? I'd be happy to look at the relevant reading if you just point me to it. In my re-reads of both of you, I didn't find much of any interaction between you guys and other wolves.

You guys should make attempts at clearing yourself rather than just being like I DUNNOOOO, VAGOS IS PUSHING ME AND I KNOW MY ROLE SO HE'S FISHY!
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11-23-2012 , 09:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagos
Ya....you gonna play? You said an hour or two ago "I'm gonna catch up and be useful." Are you caught up? Will you be useful?
I will be here for the rest of the day and Im writing a post right now on where Im at and why, so yea?
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11-23-2012 , 09:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Tanner
The thing making this unlikely has been his play (until today). It's pretty bad to ask to be Villa Capt. as a neutral because it pains a target on your back.

That's not proof positive that he's villa, but it is a flaw in the case I think.

Vyk as a neutral has been a common thought from a few of us though.
It paints a target but if nobody can do anything about it, who cares?
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11-23-2012 , 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tchaz
welcome to last night
Sorry, I'm not afraid to admit that I gloss over your posts sometimes.

Kudos for bringing it up before me!
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11-23-2012 , 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel

There's a decent chance he's [RT] a neutral, but there's roughly zero chance he's a wolf based on voting record (not that there weren't fairly ample bussing opportunities, but it's hard to go 5/5 doing that)
I really don't know why you keep saying 5/5. Formally it is true, but it's completely misleading because for the last three days we have outed wolves.

So the real way of keeping score is that he's 2/2.

However, as you know, both RT and I were on VMF and TN - she wasn't the lead wolf wagon d4. I'm pretty happy with how I voted, and if he's a villa I imagine RT is too, but let's not exaggerate ...
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11-23-2012 , 09:27 PM
tchaz, just tell me who are you leaning on voting today and why?
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11-23-2012 , 09:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
It paints a target but if nobody can do anything about it, who cares?
Well unless he bussed his vig, he really can't be a wolf so that means he's villa/neutral.

Are you suggesting we lynch him tonight, because I don't see that being our best move honestly.
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11-23-2012 , 09:30 PM
Guys it's 30 minutes til EoD and we have 3 of 8 votes on the board. We need to get some votes out there so we avoid an EoD cluster****.
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11-23-2012 , 09:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Tanner
Well unless he bussed his vig, he really can't be a wolf so that means he's villa/neutral.

Are you suggesting we lynch him tonight, because I don't see that being our best move honestly.
No, I am not. I'm getting it out there in case I die tonight. My vote is where it shall be.
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11-23-2012 , 09:33 PM
In b4 tchaz continues to refuse to interact but just bombs the thread with a novel 10 mins before EOD and then casts a totally unaccountable vote.
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11-23-2012 , 09:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagos
Do you have any interactions with wolves that might clear you? Who were some of the wolves you pushed?
You know something stupid? I have no idea what interactions with wolves might clear me. Should they be ones where wolves are critical of me and call me wolfy or suspicious? Or should they be where they say I'm a villa?

I don't remember right now who got on that wagon of Gad's on d1 on me - except that TN dropped in late (and later got some heat). She then persisted to call me 'dry' , 'very very dry' until she got lynched. I have no idea where that neologism comes from, but I take it to mean that she is suspicious of me or thinks me 'wolfy'. And, yes, she justifies that by say I don't interact in the correct manner with the thread.

On d4, immediatly after HardcoreUFO made his long case on me, wolf Silman quoited the whole thing and capped it with "I agree with all of that". Never heard back from him when the next day HardcoreUFO said in his last mention of me that he was happy with my reply to him.

Is this the kind of stuff you want to see?
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11-23-2012 , 09:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
No, I am not. I'm getting it out there in case I die tonight. My vote is where it shall be.


This is still our count as far as I know, wanted it on this page:

Quote:
Originally Posted by looshle
Votes as of post 10324
Night in 04:08

---
VotesLynchVoters
2 accobra_kid DWetzel (24), Richard Tanner (25)
1 tchaz vyk07 (13)
1 unvote Vagos (32)
4 not voting accobra_kid (18), confirmedtroll (22), tchaz (38), darO (0)
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11-23-2012 , 09:35 PM
Vagos - hey - you just asked me to go away and find some interactions with wolves for you. Now you want to call me out for not interacting with the thread. Which do you want, bro?
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11-23-2012 , 09:35 PM
Here at theatre, 8pm Skyfall got sold out so we are seeing it at 10pm instead.

I still feel very strong that tchaz is a villager, as I have all game, so I don't think I will vote for him. I'm glad to see some of you have finally come along to this wave of thinking as well.

My vote is going to be for confirmedtroll. I think he is the last wolf, and I still can't get over him LOCK CLEARING Forsythio within six minutes of arriving into the game, and his last second self preservation vote after being MIA all eod.
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11-23-2012 , 09:36 PM
tchaz, before you do any searching, can you tell me who you want to vote for tonight?
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11-23-2012 , 09:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tchaz
You know something stupid? I have no idea what interactions with wolves might clear me. Should they be ones where wolves are critical of me and call me wolfy or suspicious? Or should they be where they say I'm a villa?

I don't remember right now who got on that wagon of Gad's on d1 on me - except that TN dropped in late (and later got some heat). She then persisted to call me 'dry' , 'very very dry' until she got lynched. I have no idea where that neologism comes from, but I take it to mean that she is suspicious of me or thinks me 'wolfy'. And, yes, she justifies that by say I don't interact in the correct manner with the thread.

On d4, immediatly after HardcoreUFO made his long case on me, wolf Silman quoited the whole thing and capped it with "I agree with all of that". Never heard back from him when the next day HardcoreUFO said in his last mention of me that he was happy with my reply to him.

Is this the kind of stuff you want to see?
Sort of ya, that's moreso "spew" than interactions. Interactions are just you directly going back and forth with other wolves in the thread. That's harder to fake than wolves bussing each other or clearing each other.

It has been kind of a weird game in that regard though I guess, since the wolves were super UTR or outed most of the time. But those interactions or spew are still there to be had.
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11-23-2012 , 09:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tchaz
I really don't know why you keep saying 5/5. Formally it is true, but it's completely misleading because for the last three days we have outed wolves.

So the real way of keeping score is that he's 2/2.

However, as you know, both RT and I were on VMF and TN - she wasn't the lead wolf wagon d4. I'm pretty happy with how I voted, and if he's a villa I imagine RT is too, but let's not exaggerate ...
It's hard to bus all your teammates and win if you're a wolf.

Note that this does not imply that people who didn't go 5/5 are wolves (except insofar as the total of N wolves has to be allocated somewhere, and if you remove some people from consideration, everyone else's wolf probability goes up). It's a mistake to say "hey, you had a chance to vote for a wolf on day X and didn't, you MUST be a wolf". (This is partly self-serving in that I'm the schmuck who drove the engine car of the XXsooted wagon for a long weekend -- but it's also because villagers make mistakes a lot because villaging is inherently error-prone.)
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11-23-2012 , 09:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tchaz
Vagos - hey - you just asked me to go away and find some interactions with wolves for you. Now you want to call me out for not interacting with the thread. Which do you want, bro?
I want to know:

Who are you leaning towards voting (can give me 2 names if you want).

And why?

I've asked it 3 times now.
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11-23-2012 , 09:39 PM
I already talked about my leans earlier today. Then I had either vyk or Vagos as most likely neutrals - and a high chance of there being neutrals in the game, and accobra and ct as my top wolf leans. I'm liking my wolf leans less as the day goes on, I don't love DWetz's day unlike some other people and it's not impossible for RT or darO to be wolves. If anything I'm liking my neutral leans more as time goes on.

That's not very helpful, I know, but I haven't seen anyone else making strong - or even weak - cases today, so ...
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11-23-2012 , 09:40 PM
so basically darO and accobra will snipe, right?
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11-23-2012 , 09:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tchaz
I already talked about my leans earlier today. Then I had either vyk or Vagos as most likely neutrals - and a high chance of there being neutrals in the game, and accobra and ct as my top wolf leans. I'm liking my wolf leans less as the day goes on, I don't love DWetz's day unlike some other people and it's not impossible for RT or darO to be wolves. If anything I'm liking my neutral leans more as time goes on.

That's not very helpful, I know, but I haven't seen anyone else making strong - or even weak - cases today, so ...
Given how many words you've devoted to mechanics talk in the past 24 hours, that this is where you're at with your actual reads is so incredible underwhelming.
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11-23-2012 , 09:41 PM
ok just saw accobra's vote.
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11-23-2012 , 09:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by confirmedtroll
so basically darO and accobra will snipe, right?
That's sort of the way it's looking right now. 3 wagons with 8 people is not good for us.
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