Ok, so I'm going to say going in that these reads are admittedly thin, but at this stage, it's going to be VERY hard to bink the neutral. Neutrals, by nature, can wolf hunt just like anyone else, so we'll need more to nail him.
When I was the SK in SE 2.0 and looked back over the game, my biggest leak was posting in the thread very quickly after dawn. I did it because I was genuinely interested in the wolves NAs (to see if I'd died) and to see if my own NAs had hit. In our game, the SK seems to be getting a DK which has gone off within a few hours of the thread opening, and that time-frame may be a requirement of their role.
Without further adieu, I think accobra fits this pattern in every day but one:
Day 2:
Quote:
Originally Posted by looshle
It is day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid
I don't, but I actually have prepared some notes/questions about him that you or others can answer for me.
4 minutes after EoD
Day 3:
Quote:
Originally Posted by looshle
It is day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid
Good morning. Great result yesterday! Mixed result this morning, glad to see the wolf seer gone but losing another vigilante is not ideal.
First post after Dawn, 1 minute after.
Day 4:
Accobra didn't post early this day BUT it's also the Monday that Looshle opened the thread early so it's an outlier itself.
Day 5:
Quote:
Originally Posted by looshle
It is day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid
Frustrating to lose loosekanen.
Outside of players like who are mechanically clear to different degrees, loosekanen was far and away my biggest village lean, even before he claimed. He did a lot of good village work over the last three days.
First post after dawn, one minute after
Day 6:
Quote:
Originally Posted by looshle
It is day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid
I don't understand how Ashington is still alive.
Half an hour later
Today:
Quote:
Originally Posted by looshle
Gameday will last until Friday at 9pm EST.
It is day
Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid
Ashington getting killed is probably a sign that there's two wolves left, a roleblocker and a godfather.
If there was only a godfather left, there's no incentive to kill him. Getting peeked provides clearance, although only very lightly as we've already discussed.
First post after Dawn, 2 minutes after
That's just a crazy amount of attention to the opening of the thread, but like I said, it's thin. Maybe his workday starts then and he happens to be up, but it is what the SK would be expected to do.
Then there are these posts today:
Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid
Hypothetical:
(and this is a pretty big tinfoil, so bear with me)
We have not seen LeBron James yet. darO is LeBron, his engaging Eurotrash was The Decision. There's clearly some Dan Gilbert vs. LeBron mechanic in Eurotrash's role, perhaps there's something similar in LeBrons. Maybe a vanilla who can blast someone then turn into a wolf.
I can't find the Gilbert writeup easily, can someone quote it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid
Wait, nevermind. CDL was LeBron, guess you can throw that theory out.
Well that's cool except CDL was Lin:
Quote:
Originally Posted by looshle
CalledDownLight has been ejected from the game!
Why didn't he check that before posting? Didn't care?
Lastly there's this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid
BJLTNYK pushed me at end of day yesterday.
Multiple people have said that when he is a villager, he is very keen on solving the game. He has been totally uninterested in this game over the last three days. He conveniently has an excuse for it, but the truth is that he has played unacceptably badly if he is a villager.
We've all seen the complete and total lack of effort the last four wolves (VMF, Effen, TheNothing and Silman) have put in when facing difficult circumstances. BJLTNYK's effort over the last three days is consistent with these wolves. Why would they put in the time when facing a scenario that's very challenging to dig themselves out of?
He's trying to build a case against me with 'evidence' of my poor play on day one. This game is a perfect example of how aids infested day ones can be: every single resolved day one vote has been on a villager so far.
I think it is quite likely that BJ could be a wolf setting me up to get mislynched today, especially now that I've called him on it. I'm far less clear than several of the remaining players, and he probably sees me as an easy target.
He sneaks this beauty in 6 minutes before the day kill today. Man, sure is lucky he got this post declaring he and BJ would basically have to thunderdome in before that day kill. Pretty much assures he's not a wolf when BJ flips. Granted he was taking a big risk if BJ flips villa but it's entirely possible the SK gets a peek and knew BJ was a wolf before that.
The BJ kill may well have been a last ditch effort by Accobra to save himself since if BJ lives, there's a decent chance we just say "**** it, let's lynch acc and BJ and ship this thing" and obv he can't have that.
In short, Accobra is now my greatest neutral lean and would like us to consider very strongly his lynch today since I have him as more of a neutral than I have tchaz and CT as wolves (if that makes sense).