I'm going straight off of feel and player dynamics right now, so the "show your work" requests don't really apply for anyone's leans at this point in the game

it's a blank slate in regards to villagers/neutrals so the best bet is to hunt the w0alfiest players remaining

Bolded is exactly my thinking as well. That's why I'll want your take on my SK guess

Just to try to keep things straight. Looshle confirmed that if the wolf seer peek d2 was successful it would have been communicated to the wolf team. So it is possible that the wolves peeked zdye by the n2 night action.

What was going on with Ash living is still not clear; we do not know that the wolves were not hunting our vigs - results orientedly the balance of the evidence is that they were.

Agreed, would like you to read this page and tell me your thoughts on CT.

I havn't been day vig'd yet b/c of 2 potential reasons

1) I hold the neutrals in high regard and thus pose no immediate threat to them

or

2) I'm just not a priority b/c most of the remaining players in the game don't trust me and by continuing to keep me alive and killing less clearer players, only alienates me from the rest of the village. it's a decent strategy in hindsight, but they have no idea what's coming for them in terms of WIM reserves if I'm sitting at must lynch

basically, I don't know wtf they are doing

I think CT is way more likely to be a neutral then a w0alf. it wouldn't surprise me if he was a villager though. his ramblings the past few days have seemed somewhat sincere, although horribly misguided

(wish I could catch up to the front of the thread)

this is good analysis

basically, I think several remaining players in this game including myself are never w0alves (either villagers or neutrals), so I think the best course of action is to hunt from the w0alfiest players from the least clear players and maximize our +EV

If dwetzel is not a villager and booradley pulled that game losing sh*t show in the sub thread, I'll personally ask him to be perma'd from future ww games

I have nothing else to say, no more "w0ark" to show

I'm just going to lynch who I think the w0alfiest players remaining are and maybe even bink a neutral that way

I'm going to New Brunswick to celebrate a friend's 21st bday and then heading off to Atlantic City for the weekend

Vagos, hop on black ops

I have like 2 hours to kill before I leave

This seems right, the neutral kills have been a bit of a head scratcher, but the wolf NK's have been weird too. They let Ash live for too long and then NK'd someone like Henrik over you. I don't think you're a wolf, I guess I'm just asking the question that now you're here in the f8 and somewhat mystified by it, when did you expect to die and by which team?

Sure, that's all well and good, but again, I don't even see why speculating about it helps anything.

If you're a villager (and this applies to everyone): All the gum-flapping about what they may or may not have known is probably counterproductive. There are seven other people left. Focus on them. Figure out which of them aren't villagers. Hang them. Hopefully win. Alternatively, figure out which of them definitely are villagers, and hang the other people.

Now, I may suck ass at the "figuring out which of them aren't villagers" part, but even I have this reasonably narrowed down right now.

I believe it was pointed out earlier that RT and Vagos are 5/5 on voting for wolves so far. It's pretty safe to assume they are not wolves.

Vyk outed the wolf vig. It's pretty safe to assume he is not a wolf.

DarO killed the wolf vig. It's pretty safe to assume he is not a wolf.

That leaves me, CT, accobra, and tchaz. Pick one of them (OK, don't pick me) and hang them.

Dwetzel doing good work

Oh god help me I think I'mm mind melding with vyk.

You are airbrushing what DWetzel says here. ducy?

No. Why? Why would that be his only hope? His best plan would be for us to lynch the SK now. But he isn't dead in the water if we mislynch.

[I'm going to write as though it is 6-1-1 .. "the neutral", "the wolf", but I'm not excluding 5-2-1 so just fix my grammar for those cases.]

Obviously the wolf would like us to talk exclusively about who might be the neutral.

And the neutral would like us to talk exclusively about who might be the wolf.

What are you doing, Vagos?

Oh. I see. #isthisagoodlook?

tc-- there's probably some overlap there in general -- I'm assuming the SK is somewhere = rand in the wolfiness order, because they really don't care who dies.

Regardless of that, look at post 10288. Those four (three, from your perspective) people are your options to hang today. Pick one.

@tinfoil: everyone who wants to lynch me is a neutral. everyone who wants to not lynch me is a wolf. welp

And I do think there's a decent chance CT did actually derp himself villager at the end of d2. Not conclusive but bears remembering.

Which just leaves accobra or tchaz, or possibly me if you want to go that route. For multiple reasons, some of which I've already explained and some of which I honestly don't want to get into right now, I want accobra.

tchaz, you do understand it's easier to find players who are wolfing than players who are neutraling, right?

darO: I'm trying to clear up stuff I'm unsure about and I have a couple of questions about darO.

Firstly, I only know two things about darO this game: (i) he vigged the wolf vig and sat out the remainder of the day and came back to the game next day (ii) he made a not-so-great case on Loosekanen.

I agree that's probably my bad for not paying more attention/making better notes/putting in the hours. But can anyone else let me know what else he's done (either positively or negatively) this game?

Second question. Can someone more au fait with current NBA lore than me tell me if "engage" means something specific or rings a bell as part of some well known quote or ... well .. give me any clue as to whether its a word that would be in an NBA fan's brain?

Beh. ok, third question. If darO isn't MWP does anyone have any coherent flavour speculations which more or less fit the role? Particularly if they were non-villa?

--------------------

other topic: RT - I kinda agree about what you say about Jordan would now literally peek as MJ so we would know not a current player. I guess I could adjust the theory to him peeking as, idk, Brow, but has the double player/owner thing. But I agree that could be flavour for a recruited villager as well .. and it doesn't fit really quite as well as I initially thought ... and maybe Derek Fisher is the godfather anyway (if he's still president of the player's union).

That's a joke, right?, that you don't put me in the 5/5 crowd. Or, I mean, you think I'm a wolf with CDL-sytle ethics who won't vote a wolf but would create fake incoherent wifi flails poasts with fake votes like "[b] Silman [/ ] "
or whatever the **** it was? Give me a ****ing break.

Ok, so I'm going to say going in that these reads are admittedly thin, but at this stage, it's going to be VERY hard to bink the neutral. Neutrals, by nature, can wolf hunt just like anyone else, so we'll need more to nail him.

When I was the SK in SE 2.0 and looked back over the game, my biggest leak was posting in the thread very quickly after dawn. I did it because I was genuinely interested in the wolves NAs (to see if I'd died) and to see if my own NAs had hit. In our game, the SK seems to be getting a DK which has gone off within a few hours of the thread opening, and that time-frame may be a requirement of their role.

Without further adieu, I think accobra fits this pattern in every day but one:

Day 2:
4 minutes after EoD

Day 3:
First post after Dawn, 1 minute after.

Day 4:
Accobra didn't post early this day BUT it's also the Monday that Looshle opened the thread early so it's an outlier itself.

Day 5:

First post after dawn, one minute after

Day 6:

Half an hour later

Today:
First post after Dawn, 2 minutes after

That's just a crazy amount of attention to the opening of the thread, but like I said, it's thin. Maybe his workday starts then and he happens to be up, but it is what the SK would be expected to do.

Then there are these posts today:

Well that's cool except CDL was Lin:

Why didn't he check that before posting? Didn't care?

Lastly there's this:

He sneaks this beauty in 6 minutes before the day kill today. Man, sure is lucky he got this post declaring he and BJ would basically have to thunderdome in before that day kill. Pretty much assures he's not a wolf when BJ flips. Granted he was taking a big risk if BJ flips villa but it's entirely possible the SK gets a peek and knew BJ was a wolf before that.

The BJ kill may well have been a last ditch effort by Accobra to save himself since if BJ lives, there's a decent chance we just say "**** it, let's lynch acc and BJ and ship this thing" and obv he can't have that.

In short, Accobra is now my greatest neutral lean and would like us to consider very strongly his lynch today since I have him as more of a neutral than I have tchaz and CT as wolves (if that makes sense).

I actually have a note from d1 saying "I'm mind-melding with vyk - that's pretty alarming" (coolstarybra etc)

vyk - if you go to AC leaving your vote on me that's a hard neutral claim imo

If I got it wrong/misremembered, feel free to correct it.