Mastin traz is town and his logic very much appeals to me. He's pushing all my buttons.

mastin2

I'll do that quoting of traz's posts in a bit--in the mean time, I'm continuing my reread of the thread.

Mastin, you say traz is settng himself up for the endgame???
Day 2 analysis (from traz)
Lean list has been somewhat accurate. All of the maf have flipped and all the town have flipped....
Town points in the sense that he is creating a wall for himself as maf
Maf points- his list is too accurate

Here's the ringer though...
Magic ripped off of traz's list basically.

Problem is, DGB, you know exactly why I am self-voting: to save Blood Fox and to make people read my posts on traz without bias.

There is zero manipulation involved. There is zero effort of self-preservation in the vote. Quite the opposite, I fully expect to be lynched, which is exactly why I am putting in the effort I am.

This is the Mastin Gambit in its purest form: self-sacrifice to emphasize a point. In this case being that Blood Fox is town and that traz is scum. All the analysis is there. All the proof is pointing to him. I know that traz is making logic that resonates with others--but that's traz's job as an elite scum player. He can't make poor posts. It's his job to make posts that look good but further a scum wincon.

And I am telling you that they are doing exactly that. Everyone he is currently pushing is town. Everyone he will push (unless he brings chrja back into focus, which he will not) will be town. He will continue to have solid logic behind his reads--but they will continue to flip town and he will continue to adjust his game.

Traz is scum. Implicated by his scumbuddies, implicated by the dead flipped town, traz is not town this game. And I know that I'm fighting a losing battle. But I am begging you. Pleading with you. DON'T IGNORE ME AFTER I AM GONE.

DGB, you know I am a competent scumhunter. You KNOW that I am a champion in this game for a dang-good reason. You know that this sort of thing has happened before.

This is Pinkmin Mafia again, DGB. I started off weak. I started off not being strong. But then, I got in my element. And I got close to nailing scum, despite having been set up as a scum mislynch. It took me a while to find my stride. It took me a while to lock on and differentiate between the scum players with an agenda and the town players who I had bad reads on.

But I have done so now. And Blood Fox is town; traz is not.

Hmmm interesting given athexx's alignment (thoughts) at this present time

haha this wouldn't be the first time I've been suspected for being "too accurate". One of my favourite compliments, ty

I have some more thoughts lined up but I think I'm going to wait a bit before posting them. I know the day drags on a bit but people need to start posting if they are villagers because information is everything.

Yes.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter if some scum die, so long as he can win. There are only 13 alive right now. After my mislynch and the resulting nightkill, there will be 11. After the mislynch of, say, Blood Fox, that's down to 9. Then comes a mislynch on someone like you or Fitz. Down to 7. And then, someone like Magic. Down to 5.

Which, without a wolf death, is lylo. Endgame. Where a mislynch wins the game for the scum. All it'd take is voting someone else, a leftover from those he's refusing to clear and who he drags up evidence for being scum.

There is a clear path to a scum victory. Traz knows what he's doing. He's gained the towncred he needs to be brushed off. And now, he can progressively lynch off as many town players as he wants and people will continue to think that it's an honest miscalculation until it's too late.

I can tell this because it's the exact damn thing that I have a tendency to do as scum. As scum, my early-game is INCREDIBLY strong*. I get near-universal townreads. But as the game progresses, said towncred begins to decay. Because as the game progresses, I have to make arguments which I increasingly know to be wrong.

Traz is doing the same thing. He has established a strong early-game presence. His reads, however, will continue to decay. He'll continue using logic which looks convincing, but it'll increasingly prove to be wrong. It'll increasingly continue to net town lynch after town lynch, despite how it at the time seems like a reasonable conclusion to have made.

He will string the town along like a puppetmaster, killing off or lynching those that he fears he cannot control. Killing off those who he thinks that he cannot mislynch. Killing off those who he thinks are wildcards that are unreliable and therefore a risk.


*This is a side-note, but this is true of almost all my games. As town, my play starts off weak but gets increasingly stronger as the game progresses. As scum, my play starts off strong but gets increasingly weaker as the game progresses. Again, this is something that AP himself can confirm to be true, which again, is why after I flip town YOU SHOULD NOT IGNORE MY READS.

Hmmmm scum/scum interaction, gives a feel on how both of them are playing... and may be the final piece of the puzzle we need...

Oh, and by the way:

Sooner or later, traz is going to try and mislynch AP. Why? Because
-There is lingering suspicion on AP
-One of AP's strongest defenders is myself, and
-AP is literally one of the worst obstacles traz can face. He cannot nightkill AP, and AP's a competent enough player that AP will be a risk to him sooner or later.

So he'll use those lingering doubts about AP and turn them on him, trying to mislynch the bulletproof.

I cant put my finger on it, feels like this anaylisis was ripped from somewhere

Mastin.... I feel now you are telling too much :/

This is true, oh SO true. (And continues to be evidence for marvel being town.)

Magic (along with Blood Fox) is almost certainly going to be among the names traz pushes for mislynching after I'm gone.

Hmmmm interesting, the game is moving on as usual yet we have this quote by fitz....

Talking too much? Well, if so, I'll provide a summary, 'kay? When I've finished my catch-up, I'll quote everything that's important, and you'll be able to read it.

Telling too much about traz? No such thing. I'm just explaining why traz's scum-tendencies are incredibly transparent to me. Traz insists that I don't know him. But I swear--I had traz pegged as someone I can easily synch up with. A lot of what he does is things that I do.

Similar methods of scumhunting, similar posting styles, similar everything. And if I'm correct, similar strategies as scum. To keep not the immediate game in mind, but the long-term endgame objective in sight.

You know what the phrase "What would Mastin do?" really translates into? What would be the plan I would take if I have an endgame in mind? And in that way, you can use it for other players--what would traz do? Traz would have an endgame in mind. One slightly adjusted by the circumstances of the game, but always planned out and choreographed in subtle clues.

No... not that... im thinking about ideas like maf vig only having 2 shots and all that, that is telling

Hey, marv. Just curious--still think this is true? Especially given that binkles died that night?

Ah, so part of the "too much information" accusation.

Again, I'd like to point out that it's not too much information. It's simple reasoning.



Also, side-note, but there are two duelling camps. "Mastin is an idiot" and "Mastin knows too much".

After I flip town, you should realize that I was smart enough to make deductions--AS TOWN--that made it look like I knew too much info despite being town. That's because I am not an idiot; I am a smart, intelligent guy who can pick up on things.

So if you think that my push on traz is moronic, think again. Think about how I was correct on D3, and on D4. Think about how I analyzed these things, as town, and came up with a conclusion that ultimately ended up being right.

And then apply that to me, today, and how I'm pushing traz as scum and Blood Fox as town.

Once more, this is not scum-on-scum interaction; Nana is town.

Hmmm top half is interesting, bottom half is even more interesting. Why with the interest to suddenly get in the game???
(And contrast with fitz as well)

This looks important. Yo, chrja!

What do you define as being traz's reputation? Why is this not something you've followed through on?

If Mastin flips town, I agree his claims need to be seriously considered. I doubt he will, but IF he does then ignoring his case on Traz would be foolishness.

The interest in getting into the game was that I
-wanted to get nightkilled, and
-Wanted to have good reads.

I had neither by the end of D1. I was too busy on D2 to do so, but on D3, I went crazy, as you've seen by my explosive posting, because I still held hopes of both. I've obviously lost the former, but when it comes to the latter, I am telling everyone that I have it now, and that traz/chrja are both scum.

(And, by the way, it worked. On D3, I was correct that Mango was a good lynch, although my reads weren't fully refined. On D4, I was correct that Foolishness was the correct lynch, and my reads were mostly refined. It's taken 'til today for them to be what I think to be perfect.)

... i think there is a difference between knowing too much, and deducing information. When deducing information, you take into account all the variables. Compare my day 3 arguments/deductions over your point of maf vig only having two shots.