Set facing turn check/shove - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Set facing turn check/shove

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09-29-2017 , 02:59 AM

MouseyB

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 334

Villain is 15/12 over 78 hands.

What do we think?

PokerStars - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 181.8 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
MP: 97.7 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 78)
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.80, PFR: 13.71, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 126)
SB: 131.4 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 6.82, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 46)
BB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (13 BB, 4 players) 5

SB checks, MP bets 6.1 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 11.9 BB

Turn: (49 BB, 2 players) T

MP checks, Hero bets 25 BB, MP raises to 76.7 BB and is all-in,

Hero?

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09-29-2017 , 03:13 AM

tomj

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 4,543

Equity calc vs 67s, 99, TT. And he is allowed to have some 2pair, JJ and some bluffs. We should be fine to make a standard call

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09-29-2017 , 03:22 AM

JayGia

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 10

We need ~25% equity here.

Whats villains range?

PF (11% PFR) - [AA-77, AKs-JTs, AK-AJ]

What in that crushes us? [TT, 99]
What are we drawing against? [QJs] 10 outs / ~20%
What else? Flush/Straight monster draw [we win ~70%] One or the other - even better

We're good here enough of the time imo. Call.

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09-29-2017 , 03:32 AM

TheGodson

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 3,068

I'm calling here. Since others above me have already said the things I was going to say I'll throw in this; 76 is not as likely to be in his range anymore. With a str8 on that flop in his spot, it would make sense for him to keep raising and not let a gutshot, set, or two pair out draw him.

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09-29-2017 , 03:42 AM

JayGia

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 10

Honestly, I know its only 80 hands of history but I wouldn't have put 76s in his PFR range from the HJ at 11% overall.

Maybe if this was coming from CO/BB.

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09-29-2017 , 05:14 AM

AltoZZ

adept

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 796

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayGia

Honestly, I know its only 80 hands of history but I wouldn't have put 76s in his PFR range from the HJ at 11% overall.

Maybe if this was coming from CO/BB.

Sample size is too small to make that adjustment. Surely he can have 67s in his range.

Call AP.

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