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KQ on the flop.What do you think? KQ on the flop.What do you think?

08-28-2017 , 05:39 AM
888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $8.39 (VPIP: 26.87, PFR: 20.07, 3Bet Preflop: 8.85, Hands: 299)
BB: $5.71 (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
UTG: $10.30 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 12.22, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 90)
MP: $10.66 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
Hero (CO): $4.85
BTN: $8.55 (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, fold, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.80, 3 players) K T 9
BB bets $1.20, fold, BTN calls $1.20

Turn: ($3.20, 2 players) 7
BB checks, BTN bets $1.30, BB calls $1.30

River: ($5.80, 2 players) 8
BB checks, BTN checks

Spoiler:
BB shows 4 K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 59%, Flop 78%, Turn 90%)
BTN mucks 5 Q (High Card, King)
(Pre 41%, Flop 22%, Turn 10%)
BB wins $5.51
KQ on the flop.What do you think? Quote
08-28-2017 , 05:41 AM
BB went to showdown was 42% aggression freq 18%
KQ on the flop.What do you think? Quote
08-28-2017 , 07:12 AM
Seems like we're playing against a fishy player, with a strong bluffcatcher (equally strong in value as AK imo). We're short-stacked, barely at 50bbs, so 1-pair hands should be tougher to fold. There's a plethora of semi-bluffs to be up against too: KJ, QT, (Q9)/2, JT, (J9)/2, (J8)/2, (87)/2 for a total of: 60, all of which we pretty much crush (70%+). His value hands are TT, 99, K9, T9, so: 24 - against these, we're around a ~18% underdog (notice how I excluded QJ, BB rarely has QJ here on a donk-overbet - maybe like 2/12 combos?).

Although donk potting/overbetting from fish is a typical sign of a weak made hand at the micros, causing us to exclude a lot of his bluffs (say we're likely to cut them down a lot, maybe 60->20), notice how he's lost what looks to be 40bb within the previous 9 hands in what I assume to be some fishy action. He is clearly getting impatient, tilting, and is doing some sketchy stuff.

BTN seems way too passive, with similar fishy stats, so I'll give him a wide range that we _crush_ on this board. I expect him to play fit or fold against our call (we polarize him to QJ/TT/99/K9/T9 or nfd), making it easy for us to fold for the remaining $3.4 if he shoves on us. This is because there's 40 nutted hands vs. 8-9 nfds, I'll happily fold and let his only semi-bluff work.

AP flat flop, call pot bet on most turns. I'm happily putting in my 50bb against a tilted fish.

Last edited by veX_ouy; 08-28-2017 at 07:26 AM.
KQ on the flop.What do you think? Quote
08-28-2017 , 08:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by veX_ouy
Seems like...
Wow!
What a great review!
thank you for coming to my thread.
I agree with everything.
KQ on the flop.What do you think? Quote
08-28-2017 , 08:43 AM
If anyone is able to deduct anything else but a "Seems like" off of a 9-hand history size and no further comments, I'd happily treat them to a beer any time

Oh, and lay off the sarcasm, it doesn't fit your nit short stacker style at all.
KQ on the flop.What do you think? Quote
08-28-2017 , 03:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thriftybunny
BB went to showdown was 42% aggression freq 18%
And huge sample of 9 hands.
Shut down HUD and you will not so easily fold TP2ndK plus gutshot.
KQ on the flop.What do you think? Quote

      
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