The other part is that you indeed, are guaranteed to go bust. The only reason that you wont is because you'll die first. If we extend time out to infinity in addition to your lifespan, regardless of your bankroll or profit you will experience a 1 in 1 billion trillion jillion chance eventually where you go busto chango.
Didn't read the entire thread, just want to point out that this is wrong.
I thought we were suppose to be gamblers... I did a quick internets search and found that the chances of being seriously hurt in a car accident are about 1 in 20...
do not agree. That's like "average temperature of ill people in the hospital".
since the nature of poker changes constantly (people iron out leaks and work on their game) i find it hard to believe there is any way of quantifying true HU winrate, the very fact that it takes >1million hands to get a reasonably realistic estimation of winrate means that the game will have evolved (considering most of the best high volume HU grinders can get in around 60K hands in a month, and at higher stakes that number shrinks dramatically due to the bum hunt nature that has taken over in HU cash) ~ so the test is itself isn't a fair one, however i think that for a player such as nanonoko its more applicable since the games won't have changed as much within the timeframe required for the sample to be legitimate
I think you might be right, but I also think nell'HU you can not expect to have a sample of 200-300K hands, I believe that a winning player you can see even from 20K-30K played at the same level, because in the second HU me are sufficient, in that number of hands HU you can lose or win very much and I say we are a fair sample.