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NL25 Hand Analysis Day NL25 Hand Analysis Day

03-02-2017 , 02:21 AM
Hello everyone, i played this hand some days ago and tried to do a deep analysis to see if i was correct or just fishy.

I hope to get some honest criticism in all the aspects from ranges, line of thought, actions etc!!


    Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37656123

    BTN: $72.82 (291.3 bb)
    Hero (SB): $53.66 (214.6 bb)
    BB: $27.92 (111.7 bb)
    CO: $19.17 (76.7 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with 9 9
    CO folds, BTN raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.50, BB folds

    Flop: ($1.45) 7 5 2 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $0.88, Hero calls $0.88

    Turn: ($3.21) 7 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $2.20, Hero calls $2.20

    River: ($7.61) Q (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $4.80, Hero calls $4.80

    Spoiler:
    Results: $17.21 pot ($0.94 rake)
    Final Board: 7 5 2 7 Q
    BTN showed 6 4 and lost (-$8.48 net)
    Hero showed 9 9 and won $16.27 ($7.79 net)



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    villain stats 3.6k hand
    vpip:26 pfr:19 wwsf:44 w$sd:56 wtsd:28 RFI BTN:57
    cbet: 45/54/67

    PREFLOP
    99 can be 3beted MISTAKE

    Villain Range:
    Spoiler:
    https://gyazo.com/9e221b791140663c5ea26c32ee2f327d
    AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q7o,JTo-J7o,T9o-T7o,98o-97o,87o,76o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J5s,T9s-T5s,98s-95s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s


    FLOP
    Spoiler:
    Villain misses everything 40% of the times with his range.
    And hits an 8% a better hand than ours:

    So i check to induce action. He bets
    So he has a FD, OESD or 2 overcards most of the times. he can also have hitted a set or has a bigger poket pair.
    https://gyazo.com/fb9c63d776de2b9024f3da98ce3ba754
    If i re raise i make him stay with FD, over pairs and sets, i don´t want to pay his good hands, but i do not want to get not enough with my pocket.
    I notice he´s cbet turn is 54, so he will cbet again, and also will do it on river.
    I call and analyse the turn.


    TURN
    Spoiler:
    That is actually not a bad card, it doubles the board, so if he had 52 we are beating him.
    Flush didn't appear, and over cards are not appearing.
    we keep the strategy of check.
    Villain bets. https://gyazo.com/1cd5b8c898951154cef7191f6905877c
    (we assume he is going for the FD or has already a made hand (AA-77,55,22,A7o,K7o,Q7o,J7o,T7o,97o,87o,76o,A7s,K7s,Q 7s,J7s,T7s,97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,64s,43s,AhKh,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah4 h,Ah3h,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,Kh4h,Kh3h,QhJ h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qh6h,Qh4h,Qh3h,JhTh,Jh9h,Jh8h,Jh6 h,Th9h,Th8h,Th6h,9h8h,9h6h)
    If he is chasing the draw we are in odds as we need a 29% to call his bet and we have a 30% equity against this range.

    We can re raise, make our 9´s a bluff and make all draws fold (they will hit 19% on the river) and leave him only with better hands that our 9c9d
    Our hand can improve if a 9 appears, but right now the strength of it is middle, so i do not want to re raise and have to fold vs a push.
    If we raise and get flat called, what do we do if a heart, 5 or 2 or an A (not of heart) appear. are we bet bluffing or check a. calling b. folding
    I prefer to call and get a cheap showdown


    RIVER
    Spoiler:
    Is a hand that i´m actually happy to see. not many hands include a Q that would have done 2 barrels, AhQh, KhQh, QQ. So this really does not scare me.
    If i donk bet i make him fold everything that didn't hit
    Now, he does a 3rd continuous barrel as cbet 67% of the time. and his average raise on river is 35%. So as the situation was bet/bet, i can presume he will be betting river also with everything except the weak showdown value. 5x, 2x, TT, JJ (3%). betting with his strongest hands 55,22,x7,QQ,KK,AA (7%) and also with all the busted FD (3%) (A7s,K7s,Q7s,J7s,T7s,97s,AhKh,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h, Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah4h,Ah3h,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h, Kh4h,Kh3h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qh6h,Qh4h,Qh3h,JhTh, Jh9h,Jh8h,Jh6h,Th9h,Th8h,Th6h,9h8h,9h6h)

    His bet is giving us a 28% pot odds, and if he is bluffing 3 out of 10 times we are inside odds to make this call.
    NL25 Hand Analysis Day Quote
    03-02-2017 , 02:27 AM
    This is an unnecessary amount of analysis for a pretty straightforward hand.

    fwiw this was probably the best way you could've played it.
    NL25 Hand Analysis Day Quote
    03-02-2017 , 03:45 AM
    This is wp but I'd rather 3b pre, not every run out is going to protect your capped flatting range like this one
    NL25 Hand Analysis Day Quote
    03-02-2017 , 05:31 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by whitemares
    This is an unnecessary amount of analysis for a pretty straightforward hand.

    fwiw this was probably the best way you could've played it.
    2nd time i post you this text below

    Look man, try not to insult my posts as you just did.

    I like to give information and foundation on my line of thought, i do not believe i know all, and due to that is why I am more than happy to hear/read different concepts with fundamentals on what it is being defended by the other person.

    If you are interested on keeping this back and forward with me, I will request you to provide more information for your logic or line of thinking.

    I can assure you that if there is something that i admit are my mistakes, but if you just want to put a few letter by post is something that im not interested on follow doing
    NL25 Hand Analysis Day Quote
    03-02-2017 , 05:33 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by siziono
    This is wp but I'd rather 3b pre, not every run out is going to protect your capped flatting range like this one
    I agree with you 99 should be on the 3bet range, this is a mistake to be fixed.
    NL25 Hand Analysis Day Quote
    03-02-2017 , 06:47 AM
    When you do this imo you should think more about your range then Vs and if you going to 3b 99 there is no point in analysis of hand in which you did not do that.
    First give us your calling range from sb then do we can say if its good or not
    NL25 Hand Analysis Day Quote
    03-02-2017 , 07:33 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
    When you do this imo you should think more about your range then Vs and if you going to 3b 99 there is no point in analysis of hand in which you did not do that.
    First give us your calling range from sb then do we can say if its good or not
    28% of calling and 3betting range
    NL25 Hand Analysis Day Quote

          
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