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Old 06-01-2018, 09:47 AM   #1
jman92
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Join Date: Jun 2018
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HUNL100 Tricky Spot (Live) Can We Fold Nut Flush getting 5:1 on Paired Board Facing Shove?

Blinds: $.50/1 HUNL

Villain has been 3-betting a bit over 20% so far and has mostly shown down strong hands as the 3-bettor. He’s played a reasonably loose/aggressive style to this point and can show up with marginal hands at times. He mixes up his play often enough for his range to be a bit wider than you’d might think, but hasn’t seemed like a lunatic.

Hero (SB, $83) raises to $2.50 w/ As9s,
Villain (BB, $95) 3-bets to $7,
Hero (SB) calls.

I flop the nut flush draw on Q-K-Q with two spades,
BB checks to me and I bet $9 into $14 for fold equity/protection, a bit of value vs. A-high w/ no draw, and to build a pot in hopes of making the nut flush. He calls.

Turn comes off suit 3, he checks and I check for pot control and to guarantee I see the river. I also assume I likely wouldn’t get the third bet out of him if I hit my hand.

River comes 8 of spades, he bets $15 into $31 and I raise to $45.
He tanks, says out loud “I don’t think you have the flush”, waits another minute and goes all-in for another $22. The pot is now $110 and I have $22 left to call off. I’m being laid exactly 5:1 and need to win just 16.666% of the time to break even on a call, but what hand would shove over my $45 raise for value that I have beat?

My read was that Villian would just flat call my raise with any other flush and with trip queens and likely wouldn’t come over the top for value without a boat which he could have easily (namely, K-Q, K-K, 3-3, 8-8, Q-8, Q-Q and even Q-3 suited). I also felt he would instead Cbet his flush draw on the flop rather than check/call the flop like he did, so I narrowed his range down to something pretty polarized: just value hands better than my nut flush and bluffs.

So, since my nut flush is now a bluff catcher in my mind, what could Villain be bluffing with? A-High would likely not bet/shove river given its trace of showdown value and we have our blocker. With that said, the only other bluffs left in his range are low to mid cards that C/Floated flop w/ no draw which we can assume are a lesser part of his range since he 3bet pre (less mid to low card heavy range) and C/Called flop (I also felt J-10 or J-9 would probably Cbet the flop rather than C/Call, though C/Calling flop to bluff river is conceivable). This range seems even less bluff heavy given the odds he’s laying me: the pot is $110 and it’s just $22 more to call. Why shove with minimal fold equity into an uncapped range with flushes, boats and even trips that could make a “crying” call when I only needed to invest another $22? Sounds ambitious.

I showed him my nut flush open faced and despite what looked like a bit of pain in his face, I folded my cards in the muck.

To my horror, he revealed 10-2 offsuit!

Questioning my manhood, I decided to write this and wanted to know if I look like a total ***** in this hand. Is this reasonable or way nitty?

Eager to hear your comments
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Old 06-01-2018, 02:19 PM   #2
kevin52193
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Join Date: Oct 2016
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Re: HUNL100 Tricky Spot (Live) Can We Fold Nut Flush getting 5:1 on Paired Board Facing Shove?

Maybe he didn't know how much you had behind !

Way too nitty, he could have worse flushes for sure.
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