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Old 09-09-2009, 12:33 AM   #51
mersenneary
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

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Originally Posted by Pasterbator View Post
ummmm there is no one in the world that can be proftable against someone who gets AA every hand...
I think TNixon is still looking for more action, but he might have changed his mind after the first session. It's much more complicated than you think. Than I thought when I made this bet, anyway. I still feel like I have a big edge but I think TNixon actually feels the same way still.
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Old 09-09-2009, 12:38 AM   #52
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

i only skimmed the thread, but this game should definitely be played as PLH.
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Old 09-09-2009, 12:40 AM   #53
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

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i only skimmed the thread, but this game should definitely be played as PLH.
lol, that would increase AA's edge even more.

Did you read no preflop raises?
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Old 09-09-2009, 12:47 AM   #54
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

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lol, that would increase AA's edge even more.

Did you read no preflop raises?
yea, i did read that part. I wouldn't really feel like playing this bc it just seems like a mind**** of a game but i'd like to hear the results when you guys are done!
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Old 09-09-2009, 12:50 AM   #55
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

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it just seems like a mind**** of a game but i'd like to hear the results when you guys are done!
This is basically the results so far. Pretty fun actually.
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Old 09-09-2009, 01:51 AM   #56
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

I'm dealer. I don't want to comment specifically, but there's been interesting spots for both sides, and it's very fun to watch with my built-in hole card cam.
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Old 09-09-2009, 01:58 AM   #57
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

What are we talking, 90%+ of flops AA is favourite. By the river it might get murkier with draws getting there and one pair hands sucking out, but on the flop, it couldn't be worse than ahead on 90% of flops. So assuming mers pot bets 100% of flops and folds when played back at, he wins 18BB's from PF money, and TNixon gets 4BB's back when he raises/calls and mers folds. So over 10 hands, mers should be up 14BB's.

For mers to unprofitably keep folding to TNixon's bluff raises, TNixon would have to raise 5/10 flops. Assuming he's behind 9/10 times, he's bluffing 80% of the time when he raises.

Strategy: you have AA, bet the god damn flop.
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Old 09-09-2009, 02:12 AM   #58
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

That analysis is pretty simplistic. Who cares who's ahead? It's equity that matters. And when I do have a ton of equity, it doesn't really matter if I bet or check.
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Old 09-09-2009, 02:14 AM   #59
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

I'm pretty darn confident that ATC has an edge on AA.

When AA is OOP:
Any mixed strategy is strictly dominated by check/call on any street with the possible exception of open jamming every flop, but given that we can solve it and we know that it is -EV, c/c is the best line on every street. Then the ATC player has the edge on every street because we start each street at 0EV and the ATC player can only improve.

When AA is IP.
ATC player always checks and can c/c or c/r on any street. Should be clear that AA wins most pots but that AA is gonna get leveled all day since ATC player can polarize on any street without any fear of later street repercussions.

ATC player has the edge. For realzies. 50BB probably favors AA slightly... breakeven prob something like 65BB if I had to guess. You could probably write a program to literally solve this game fairly easily.
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Old 09-09-2009, 02:15 AM   #60
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

The only cool thing is that Ax gets to fold preflop but 27o gets to call.
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Old 09-09-2009, 02:26 AM   #61
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

Love the range of responses in this thread, that's what's pretty cool about this game. People just can't imagine that AA wouldn't bet, and base everything off of the fact that it would. I don't want to talk too much about strategy, but I love the insistence on both positions by different people.
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:19 AM   #62
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

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Originally Posted by lank4ever View Post
Tnixon did you book my hundo?
I didn't see it before we started, but we've only played like 50 hands, so I'll still book it if you want. Since I don't know you, though, I'll probably want an escrow if you still want to book it, and I can't make any promises on how quickly we'll finish, since it apparently is going to go pretty slow, and is dependent on a third party "dealer" who just pushes a lot of buttons and watches.

No way in hell we're going to be able to play 1k hands though. Not sure how many we're really going to be able to do, given that I think we *maybe* hit 35-40 hands per hour.

Mers, we should decide on a number before we play any more. If sejje is up for it, I'd like to do 500, but we're probably talking about a pretty big time commitment, and I don't think we can tip him enough to really make it worth it.



I just don't know if there's really any way to speed up the game. It's a lot slower than I thought it would be.
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:24 AM   #63
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

I think 500 is too much time tbh, I don't want to play 12 hours and I don't think sejje wants to deal 12 hours either. Get on AIM sometime, we'll talk about a deal.

Fun session today
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:26 AM   #64
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

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Originally Posted by sbarber View Post
What are we talking, 90%+ of flops AA is favourite. By the river it might get murkier with draws getting there and one pair hands sucking out, but on the flop, it couldn't be worse than ahead on 90% of flops. So assuming mers pot bets 100% of flops and folds when played back at, he wins 18BB's from PF money, and TNixon gets 4BB's back when he raises/calls and mers folds. So over 10 hands, mers should be up 14BB's.
Your math is really really bad here.

Like for starters, where are you conjuring 18BBs over 10 hands from, if he only gets one from me when I fold the flop?
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:30 AM   #65
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

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Your math is really really bad here.

Like for starters, where are you conjuring 18BBs over 10 hands from, if he only gets one from me when I fold the flop?
crazy gorilla math
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:32 AM   #66
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

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Originally Posted by mersenneary View Post
I think 500 is too much time tbh, I don't want to play 12 hours and I don't think sejje wants to deal 12 hours either. Get on AIM sometime, we'll talk about a deal.

Fun session today
Definitely a lot stranger than I thought it was going to be. But fun. And sending my brain off on some other interesting math tangents to stuff like balancing frequencies and a whole host of other things that you just really don't need to spend much thought on against 99% of all the players out there.

I think it totally sucks ass that you get to flop top set 10% of the time though.

:/

Oh well, at least I always know when you've hit that 2-outer.

lol

Pretty sure I ****ed up folding the 97 though. The more I thought about it, the more obvious a call seems. Because you probably call almost always on a 6, and probably most of the time on a J, and sometimes fold if I bluff a spade.

Of course, you were making some pretty amazing folds. Folding to a single bet on the 567 rainbow was just ridiculous IMO. (I flopped a straight) You definitely dodged a number of bullets there. I probably wasted all my rungood in that first 50 hands, and still ended up slightly behind because sejje was telling you when to fold in the private window. lol

Last edited by TNixon; 09-09-2009 at 03:39 AM.
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:39 AM   #67
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

When you realize what the game is about (beyond this silly "c/c dominates all other strategies on all boards on all streets" nonsense), it really is a giant balancing game. For example, on 55K boards, AA has a big advantage because ATC can't balance an unexploitable bluffing and v-betting range that takes into account the fact there's already 2 bbs in the pot he can't keep conceding. Then comes the levelling in triple barrel situations when you're not supposed to bluff when I'm supposed to call (like when a flush draw misses), but then if you're not supposed to then you should, that paradox. Again, it's a hell of a lot of fun.
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:56 AM   #68
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

Gonna post the 97 quick, cause I still think it's pretty interesting.

button, 9h7s
flop 8sAd5s
AA bets 1.5
call
turn Th
AA bets 4.5

Blinds .5/1, 100 chip stacks
SB/Button calls .5 with 9h7s
BB checks AA

Flop 8s Ad 5s
BB bets out 1.5 with top set
97o calls with a gutshot.

I'm fairly sure this flop call is fine. I'm looking to spike a turn, obviously. I know he has top set, and only have to win 10 or 11 more chips between the turn and river if I catch the turn, which might actually be tougher than I think, but that's why this turned out to be such an interesting hand IMO.

Turn Th
BB bets 4.5 (pot is 5)
SB tanks, because his hand has just improved and he has no clue what to do.

I really thought about this one for quite a while. When I call on the flop, he knows 100% that I have some sort of draw. Spades and 67 are the two most obvious ones, that he has to assume I'm going to call with on the flop all the time. The draw I actually have is slightly more concealed, but on the other hand, I know he has top set, and HE KNOWS I KNOW. If the 6 comes and I bet, I am obviously repping exactly 97. Which might be unlikely from his point of view, but it would also be a *really* weird spot to bluff, so I might make my hand and not get any action at all.

On the other hand, one of the other draws might come in and having already established something of a river overbet mechanic (not gigantic overbets, but maybe like 1.5x pot), I'm going to have to make a pretty large bet on the river if I want to rep 67 or spades.

I threw my hands up in confusion and said "fold".

Pretty sure that if I break down all his possible river strategies, I end up with a pretty easy call, but there are so many mind-**** dynamics going on here that I'd like to hear input from some other players.

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Old 09-09-2009, 04:16 AM   #69
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

Converted hand:

Sejje Thunderdome $0.50/$1 AA v. ATC - 2 players
The Official XKCD Hand Converter Powered By Reddit.com

TNixon (BTN/SB): $100.00
mersenneary (BB): $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) TNixon is BTN/SB with 9 7
TNixon calls $0.50, mersenneary checks.

Flop: ($2.00) A 8 5 (2 players)
mersenneary bets $1.50, TNixon calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.00) T (2 players)
mersenneary bets $4.50, TNixon folds.


The hand is interesting because of the spade, J, 9, 7, 6, and 4 rivers - which is a lot of the deck (in this case, 24 cards out of the 44 unknown). If one of those hits and I check the river, TNixon can bet a lot of his range and put me in a really tough spot. Disguised draws are big in this game.

It's also a big levelling game about what he would do. The spade is the most obvious draw getting there, so shouldn't I c/f river spades? If so, should he really be calling flop and turn with a flush draw...it goes round and round and the only equilibrium is in a mixed strategy.

So how's his play? How's my betsizing? I want to bet just enough with the nuts so that it's a mistake for him to continue in the hand, but he thinks it's a good decision to.

Last edited by mersenneary; 09-09-2009 at 04:35 AM.
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Old 09-09-2009, 04:35 AM   #70
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mersenneary View Post
Converted hand:

Sejje Thunderdome $0.50/$1 AA v. ATC - 2 players
The Official XKCD Hand Converter Powered By Reddit.com

TNixon (BTN/SB): $100.00
mersenneary (BB): $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) TNixon is BTN/SB with 9 7
TNixon calls $0.50, mersenneary checks.

Flop: ($2.00) A 8 5 (2 players)
mersenneary bets $1.50, TNixon calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.00) T (2 players)
mersenneary bets $4.50, TNixon folds.

Very interesting game guys, thanks for posting up some of the hands and what you thought about them. I'm looking forward to the final results! If I end up having any free time tomorrow and you guys are in need of a middle man, I'd be glad to help.

mers, I think your bet sizing was good in the hand above. Not that it matters too much, but did you have As?
TNixon, hindsight is 20/20? :P. Calling probably would have been right but I would have folded because I'm a nit.
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Old 09-09-2009, 04:41 AM   #71
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

I don't remember if I had As, most likely I did of course. It's a shame, we didn't get any 4-flush boards, my only chance to bluff.

What's fun is that this game has solvable equilibrium points for hands like this. After some discussion I think I'll attempt to show that and more definitively what the correct course of action was here.
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Old 09-09-2009, 05:14 AM   #72
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mersenneary View Post
Converted hand:

Sejje Thunderdome $0.50/$1 AA v. ATC - 2 players
The Official XKCD Hand Converter Powered By Reddit.com

TNixon (BTN/SB): $100.00
mersenneary (BB): $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) TNixon is BTN/SB with 9 7
TNixon calls $0.50, mersenneary checks.

Flop: ($2.00) A 8 5 (2 players)
mersenneary bets $1.50, TNixon calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.00) T (2 players)
mersenneary bets $4.50, TNixon folds.


The hand is interesting because of the spade, J, 9, 7, 6, and 4 rivers - which is a lot of the deck (in this case, 24 cards out of the 44 unknown). If one of those hits and I check the river, TNixon can bet a lot of his range and put me in a really tough spot. Disguised draws are big in this game.

It's also a big levelling game about what he would do. The spade is the most obvious draw getting there, so shouldn't I c/f river spades? If so, should he really be calling flop and turn with a flush draw...it goes round and round and the only equilibrium is in a mixed strategy.

So how's his play? How's my betsizing? I want to bet just enough with the nuts so that it's a mistake for him to continue in the hand, but he thinks it's a good decision to.
I'm pretty terrible at GT, but there has to be a bet size for all spade and straight cards that makes AA's life impossible.
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Old 09-09-2009, 05:34 AM   #73
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TNixon View Post
I didn't see it before we started, but we've only played like 50 hands, so I'll still book it if you want. Since I don't know you, though, I'll probably want an escrow if you still want to book it, and I can't make any promises on how quickly we'll finish, since it apparently is going to go pretty slow, and is dependent on a third party "dealer" who just pushes a lot of buttons and watches.

No way in hell we're going to be able to play 1k hands though. Not sure how many we're really going to be able to do, given that I think we *maybe* hit 35-40 hands per hour.

Mers, we should decide on a number before we play any more. If sejje is up for it, I'd like to do 500, but we're probably talking about a pretty big time commitment, and I don't think we can tip him enough to really make it worth it.



I just don't know if there's really any way to speed up the game. It's a lot slower than I thought it would be.
I said I'd bet so I'll do it, but the more I think about it the lower AA's edge becomes. I still want the action though. However many hands you guys decide to play is fine. I don't really care how long it takes as long as its not 6 months or something. It's a buyin who cares.

I pmed mers to escrow since that's probably simplest.

Last edited by lank4ever; 09-09-2009 at 05:42 AM.
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Old 09-09-2009, 05:34 AM   #74
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

Do stacks automatically stay at 100bbs each or just an auto reload for the loser?

I'm pretty sure against the right opponent, aces is taking the worst of it.
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Old 09-09-2009, 05:40 AM   #75
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Re: HU cash, you always have AA.

This is cute.
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