Really cant remember the reads I had on this player which is annoying I may come back and edit when I get to play him again. Hes a reg but not a great player. I decide to 3bet 67s here I think this hand was a day or two ago this would of either been because (not sure of the correct terminology maybe metagame?) of the tempo of the game, or because I was trying to polarise my 3betting range because he was folding to 3bets too much.

SB: $40.37 (403.7 bb) VPIP: 61, PFR: 50, 3B: 19, AF: 4.0
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb) VPIP: 47, PFR: 35, 3B: 9, AF: 2.4,

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 7
SB raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.90, SB calls $0.65

Flop: ($1.80) 4 T 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.90, SB calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.60) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $2.20, Hero ?

So a nice flop for me I flop a double gutter, standard Cbet, turn improves my hand even more. What do you think of the turn action? He did start to float me a lot, from what i can remember, to steal on the turn. Maybe for this reason I shouuld lean more towards a big turn bet around $2.90 and then check fold the river on a brick... I also believe if he has caught the flop its not a turn card we can bet and rep much.

Thoughts on a check call? Can we a great deal semi bluffing? No? Only option to check call? Are we getting the right price here to just call and miss give up n check fold? We probably will get called if we shuv the river on a heart or a straight

Thoughts on a check shuv? We fold out all his floats and hes not priced in if hes drawing? However if he has caught we dont rep a great deal.



Thoughts?

x/shove wouldn't be so bad

i just no think bet in game tho.

Finally someone else is active on this forum lol

What do you "no think bet" the turn?

I think from past hands I decided to check because he was always calling me with like any piece of the flop and i just seemed to be spewing chips betting draws and missing, so I went for the check shuv, I know I dont rep a great deal here but Im money off his floats that he bets to steal on the turn, if he calls with a 10 and I hit Im gettin paid, and I guess maybe theres a chance he folds a weak 10 like 104 suited but I really doubt it.

I guess I should do an EV calcuations for all events including check fold

Ive put him on a range of A10s,k10s,q10s,k10s,J10s,J10o,109o,109s,108s,107s, 107s,a4s,98s,88,87s,86s,77,66,55,44,
Vs this Range Im suprised to see Im a massive 80.4% favourite lol

So would the EV of a shuv be

(0.804x$20) + ( 0.196 x -$8.20) =

16.08 - 8.004 = +$8.04

?

Wait I didnt add in the times when he would fold the shuv,
It would be

EV = F(pot) + Call(%W x $W) - Call(%L x $L)

Say he folds 20% of the time

EV = 0.20($5.80) + 0.80(0.799 x $20) - 0.80(0.201 x $8.20)

EV = +$12.623

So it seems massively +EV to shuv here

i mean its a spot where i have ton of EQ, i know he has to fold his GS/Ahi's so i just 3/4 or 2/3p the turn and don't use ton of energy on it in game.

As far as workign out if bet is better than x/shove...you played with him so you would have a better understanding...

but questions you would have to ask urself would be stuff like will he fold 77 to a turn cbet? will be b/c hands like J9s? how light is he betting turn vs check? etc...