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Heads Up NL Discussion of heads up NL Texas Hold'em cash games

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Old 08-25-2017, 06:24 AM   #1
fabi226
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50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

Hey guys, Im just trying to get in the world of HU-NLH besides of playing 6max PLO, so please dont hate me too much for my play. I obv have to work a lot on my game to compete in these games.

In this hand I flop the Qhigh flush vs a relatively tight opponent and x-raise small.

On the turn I bet (probably as on the flop again too small).

The river pairs the board and I go for the potsize bet to extract a big amount out of a hand like a 6 + flush or straight draw. The answer I didnt expect waited for me, he shoved for 32 bbs more. With odds giving me almost 6:1 for a call I finally choosed to let it go after thinking for a while because I couldnt see me ever be good in this situation. Looking back my odds where pretty surely too good to ever fold a Qhigh flush here. But wouldnt villain shove a flush earlier or is villain really that likely to go crazy with something like A 6x?

Btw later that day I watched Jungleman making that monster fold vs PH, which made me feel a bit better in one way, because even a man like Daniel Cates takes sometimes weird decisions. In the other way he should have called as well as probably me, so maybe I shouldnt feel to good about it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68O_aesE7jQ

[converted_hand][hand_history]Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37817389

SB: $56.87 (113.7 bb)
Hero (BB): $197.78 (395.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J Q
SB raises to $1.25, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.50) 6 5 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $1.20, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3.30

Turn: ($11.50) J (2 players)
Hero bets $8, SB calls $8

River: ($27.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $26.50, SB raises to $43.12 and is all-in, Hero folds
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Old 08-25-2017, 10:54 AM   #2
flopturntree
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

I'm calling here on the river

I think you played the hand fine but I would bet more like 70% on river instead of pot

Should 3b QJs here sometimes
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Old 08-26-2017, 04:07 AM   #3
Mondego
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

call for sure, besides his raise is minimum in relation to pot size
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Old 09-17-2017, 09:59 PM   #4
AceofLaid
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

It's pretty hard to put his entire range on a flopped set, higher flush, two pair with a 6 and that's it with just the info given. I think the fold is no good here
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Old 09-17-2017, 11:26 PM   #5
JudgeHoldem1848
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

That's actually a good fold. His range is only about 8 combos wide and you aren't getting repopped OTF or raised on the turn with any measurable 65, 64, 55, 66, or 44. And some 32dd,37dd,78dd are making it through to the river, maybe .75 combos of the latter group. The total of those combos alone easily cover the entire width of his raising range on the river.

Weird spot, but due to the extremely wet flop and pairing river any flush is a clear fold here.

Another way of stating this is that you're about as close to pure bluffcatching as it gets with this hand. Would you randomly look someone up here?
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Old 09-18-2017, 11:07 AM   #6
AceofLaid
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

The games are that dry? Every player with every combo of QQ-AA gets it in on this flop? No one calls and plays a safe turn?(you know like a jack of spades). No other hands are made stronger by the 6 pairing that aren't boats? How often do you have to be good here? What percent of time do rando's spaz? I'm not the best heads up player but I feel like folding with the odds your getting is kind of soft.

Last edited by AceofLaid; 09-18-2017 at 11:23 AM.
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Old 09-18-2017, 11:20 PM   #7
JudgeHoldem1848
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

Players won't have all six combos of 64 by the river because they probably only open 12 or so pre, but it doesn't matter. The point is that his range is about 8 combos wide and we can easily account for that many combos, his whole range, with - if you wan't to be more precise - about 2.5 55, 2.5 44, maybe .75 66, .75 32dd, 37dd, 78dd, and then a few more 65 and 64. He'll also have some fraction of an AKdd combo.

That means we can actually account for more than his estimated range width, only counting hands that beat us.

What that means is that we are 1) pure bluffcatching and 2) pure bluffcatching in a spot that has overall, situation-independent low RCEs (river call efficiencies, meaning bluffcatching without cause is a bad default). And, in this case, the situation-specific RCE is very probably far lower than even the average RCE for this line.

In other words, it's an easy fold.
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Old 09-20-2017, 09:52 PM   #8
onemoretimes
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

LOL at folding. This is why you shouldn't play NL and PLO. Complete mind ****.

Also, WTF are you trying to get into HU NL for.
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Old 09-21-2017, 01:41 PM   #9
AceofLaid
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

I still disagree with folding being the right move. There are more hands then 6 combos that he shows up with here. If 50nl is this tight somewhere I'd be shocked
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Old 09-22-2017, 05:43 PM   #10
Tutejszy
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

I used to fold those spots a lot, now I just sigh and call and am usually no good (obv), but youll see a random spazz mb like one in 15-20 times, so you wont be losing here too much, but at least you will sleep better at night. Btw if ur going big on the river, I prefer a shove, as villians calling range should be pretty inelastic to sizings. So, either 60%pot/fold or just shove, unless you have exploitative reasons not to (like weak villian who doesnt like risking all of his chips).
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Old 09-22-2017, 10:33 PM   #11
JudgeHoldem1848
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tutejszy View Post
I used to fold those spots a lot, now I just sigh and call and am usually no good (obv), but youll see a random spazz mb like one in 15-20 times, so you wont be losing here too much, but at least you will sleep better at night.
I'm guessing RCEs for this line are <=.9 and with this hand is sub .8. Obv kind of a whore to calculate but I would love to see all these people who are so sure folding is LOL to actually present even the thinnest evidence that this spot is anything but a clear fold.

I actually went through the trouble of calculating call vs all-in raise RCEs a few times and it was, like I said, always in the <=.9 range. That doesn't mean we're getting absolutely killed by calling, esp with a smaller raise size, which will tend to raise the RCE a little, though still probably not above 1. But randomly calling these spots in general vs unknowns is a long way from profitable.

However, with this runout and hand, we likely are getting killed. Like I showed above - feel free to tell me where I went wrong if what I said is in error - his whole range is easily filled with hands that beat us. Spots like that are really, really bad to start randomly calling. Believe me, there are plenty of high frequency analogues and it's always the same. That doesn't mean you should always fold vs everyone ofc, but that's the math vs the pop.


Quote:
Originally Posted by onemoretimes View Post
LOL at folding. This is why you shouldn't play NL and PLO. Complete mind ****.

Also, WTF are you trying to get into HU NL for.
I hate to be a dick but you're so far off I should remind you the coin of the Hold'em realm is combos and if you don't ultimately trade in that currency your analysis is pretty much worthless.

That doesn't mean you always have to explicitly think in those terms. But if you're saying its hot outside when it's 0 degrees, you might have to recalibrate your mental thermometer.
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Old 09-22-2017, 10:58 PM   #12
JudgeHoldem1848
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

Quote:
Originally Posted by AceofLaid View Post
I still disagree with folding being the right move. There are more hands then 6 combos that he shows up with here. If 50nl is this tight somewhere I'd be shocked
I said 8 combos. That's roughly his range width. It might be slightly wider on a board like this, but you're talking about an expansion of maybe 25% maximum. And that would be in an exceptional case, but maybe this board qualifies. Ok, then call it 10. It doesn't change the analysis at all.

That might seem off, but it's not. People who think boards can expand population ranges by huge numbers simply haven't ever looked at what the population actually does. Boards do expand and contract ranges, but you're looking at changes typically on the order of 1 or 2 percent, not 100 or 200 like some posters would have you believe. Even the most extreme boards don't touch those numbers. And assuming 25% is frankly not realistic, but showing that the math doesn't work under that unrealistic assumption provides a powerful inductive conclusion that it must be a fold.

You don't have to take my word for this, but you should then come up with your own estimates if you think mine are off (they are off, but only by slim margins). I'll tell you basically how it breaks down. He bets about 500 combos on the flop. He flats about 200 (calls and doesn't raise). He then calls and doesn't raise about 80 ott. He then raises river with about 10 percent. That's 8 combos. And even that is inflated because I'm not counting the fact that knowing our hand leaves only 990 possible action-free combos on the river instead of 1081, so his ranges is actually even narrower*.

So estimate his range as being 9 combos wide at the absolute maximum. Explain to me how we have odds to call if you think we do.


*On top of this, his real river raise percentage is actually closer to 7 percent, not 10. So the estimates I used to make my case above were about the most liberal possible and the worst to make my case, and it was still a clear fold.

Last edited by JudgeHoldem1848; 09-22-2017 at 11:07 PM.
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Old 09-23-2017, 09:40 AM   #13
Tutejszy
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

Judge, bear in mind that your population reads come from the time when you were playing nl50 hu zoom, which

1) has been the nittiest hu envoirment ever
2) was even nittier 1-2 years ago, when you were playing

I still agree with you that this call is probably losing us some money, but your assumptions are just too strong, especially given 0 reads in op.
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Old Yesterday, 08:11 PM   #14
JudgeHoldem1848
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

That's a good point. Virtually my entire db is from the 4-table, 10bb/100 rake era. If I were to start playing zoom again, I would want to a new db for certain.

That said, I would be surprised if what I said isn't still right. Regs of any regularity won't suckercall naked Kd or 7x for two streets for the most part. Rank fish might. But even if the pop does with frequency, the fact that they "have enough bluffs" doesn't imply they are bluffing enough.

Put it this way: I've never found a single spot with an RCE of <≈.98. None.
And even if the >1-RCE-Unicorn exists, rando-calling all-in raises probably is not a good place to look for one. I don't believe any spot has a pure-bluffcatcher-RCE of >1 because of the tendency of people to be bad at value betting - v-betting too thin - combined with their tendency to be scared that big bluffs won't work conspire to lower bluffcatching to a rube's art.

To everyone who reads this though, the opinions of people like Tutejszy who are currently making money in the games - which can significantly change with circumstance - should be weighted accordingly.

Last edited by JudgeHoldem1848; Yesterday at 08:18 PM.
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Old Yesterday, 08:16 PM   #15
JudgeHoldem1848
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Re: 50NL flopping flush but folding it on the river

TL;DR on this is: We are pure bluffcatching*. Should we randomly look up unknowns here?

*Lesser flushes might be some fraction of a combo but if <≈2% of the pop range beats us, let's just call it pure bluffcatching.
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