Quote:
Originally Posted by AceofLaid
I still disagree with folding being the right move. There are more hands then 6 combos that he shows up with here. If 50nl is this tight somewhere I'd be shocked
I said 8 combos. That's roughly his range width. It might be slightly wider on a board like this, but you're talking about an expansion of maybe 25% maximum. And that would be in an
exceptional case, but maybe this board qualifies. Ok, then call it 10. It doesn't change the analysis at all.
That might seem off, but it's not. People who think boards can expand population ranges by huge numbers simply haven't ever looked at what the population actually does. Boards do expand and contract ranges, but you're looking at changes typically on the order of 1 or 2 percent, not 100 or 200 like some posters would have you believe. Even the most extreme boards don't touch those numbers. And assuming 25% is frankly not realistic, but showing that the math doesn't work under that unrealistic assumption provides a powerful inductive conclusion that it must be a fold.
You don't have to take my word for this, but you should then come up with your own estimates if you think mine are off (they are off, but only by slim margins). I'll tell you basically how it breaks down. He bets about 500 combos on the flop. He flats about 200 (calls and doesn't raise). He then calls and doesn't raise about 80 ott. He then raises river with about 10 percent. That's 8 combos. And even that is inflated because I'm not counting the fact that knowing our hand leaves only 990 possible action-free combos on the river instead of 1081, so his ranges is actually even narrower*.
So estimate his range as being 9 combos wide
at the absolute maximum. Explain to me how we have odds to call if you think we do.
*On top of this, his real river raise percentage is actually closer to 7 percent, not 10. So the estimates I used to make my case above were about the most liberal possible and the worst to make my case, and it was still a clear fold.
Last edited by JudgeHoldem1848; 09-22-2017 at 11:07 PM.