How do you know if downswing is due to variance or skill? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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How do you know if downswing is due to variance or skill?

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04-09-2018 , 05:03 PM

pokrr

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 659

I'm looking for a good way to review hand histories here to figure this out. Any help would be appreciated.

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04-09-2018 , 05:06 PM

Bladesman87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 14,543

Your question's a bit crooked. At least some of your losses are down to misplays because otherwise you wouldn't be posting in a micros forum. So don't worry about the size of your downswing and objectively analyse your hands.

I break things down by sessions. Look through the big hands first but don't get too hung up on them. Unless there's some major spew most big pots are coolers that play themselves. Spend most time on the medium pots because these come up a lot more often and you're a lot more inclined to forget the time you spewed 50bb on a loose river call than the ones you were all-in for.

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04-09-2018 , 05:21 PM

pokerforumposter

adept

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 856

its always both except in special circumstances

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04-09-2018 , 05:49 PM

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokrr

I'm looking for a good way to review hand histories here to figure this out. Any help would be appreciated.

You should always be trying to learn and get better. As long as you're doing this, don't worry about it and stay within your bankroll. If you just never seem to win and that ds never ends, perhaps you're going about learning the wrong way or you're just too stupid to win.

glgl

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Originally Posted by pokerforumposter

its always both except in special circumstances

I'd love a list of those "special circumstances". Or a few examples of what you mean.

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04-09-2018 , 10:34 PM

pokerforumposter

adept

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 856

Quote:

Originally Posted by .isolated

I'd love a list of those "special circumstances". Or a few examples of what you mean.

When you have maximum winrate that is achievable for you and you are running worse than that. Basically what I mean is if you are running at -5bb then obviously that is not your true winrate unless you are basically a fish at stakes you play at, and unless you are already well established at those stakes you have tons of ev to find. OP is talking only about small samples here since otherwise variance is limited. So unless you magically happen to run at your true winrate over a small sample, if you have a low winrate then theres always runbad, and if you have high winrate theres always rungood.

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