anyone interested in running numbers on this type of scenario?
obviously before he showed down 34o I was under a different impression of ranges for what he could have in this spot. I honestly thought it was something like 30-35% chance he has 8T for the ten high nut straight and then about 65-70% chance he has just a dry 8 with a zero percent chance of bluff or "value own" situation where he's trying to bet a worse hand for value. Now after the fact obviously my numbers are wayyyy off. Also now that I think about turn action, it may have been like he led for another 20 and I raised to 90. Either way there was somewhere around $100 of action per player on turn. I guess a double checkraise is a bit stronger than if he leads, calls a raise then cr all in on river, but either way the huge overbet on river is completely weird as hell regardless of his hand.
I'll give one last example of a huge overbet I've seen this guy do, which in retrospect actually somewhat reminds me of this hand and could have and probably should have talked me into a call but at the end of the day my odds on calling off another ~2500 into a barely 300 dollar pot are very very bad so I need to be extremely confident that villian doesn't have 8T here and has a high bluff % because even if its something like 20% chance nuts and 80% just an 8 then I think it becomes a fold because pot odds are so freakin bad here. Now onto the other weird hand we played a few weeks ago:
we're playing Big O 6 plus. All cards 2,3,4, and 5 are removed from deck. I have JJx9
7
and I raise preflop to 20 or 30 in a 5/10 game and he defends big blind. Flop is A
6
9
We checked the flop
Turn 8
and there may have been a small bet on the turn (or maybe flop, but definitely not both streets) and I call and we see river
8
He instantly goes all in for like 800 dollars into what is a pot of under 100 I think.
I tank, look at my hand, look at board, then eventually snapcall because I have straight flush lol. In 6 plus Ace is counted as low for straight and is the same as a 5 so I have a "steel wheel" aka 56789
He shows K
T
xxx and I win the pot. He was under the impression he had the nuts (but board paired means that quads still beats him lol) In this game, flush beats full house by the way.
So based on that last hand, he showed that he is capable of misunderstanding a hand and overplaying it with a huge overbet.
Still, at the time, it seemed like a weird and tough spot to call off a huge overbet with just bare 8.