Quote:
Originally Posted by ron1n
So it will! If BB turn lead its only value then SB defend should be top x% of his range where x is ~threshold.
No, this is wrong. The SB should defend those hands that can profitably continue against the BB's betting range and fold those hands that cannot. The threshold you keep referring to is irrelevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ron1n
Lets see what happens: BB leads turn with only value which is no more then 20% (top pairs+)
No, you can't just arbitrarily set the "value" range at top pairs+; the range that the BB can profitably bet the turn with is a function of the range that the SB checks behind on the flop with. The weaker that range is after the turn comes, the more frequently the BB can bet for value, and vice versa.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ron1n
- SB will have to defend some %
No, this is wrong, the SB doesn't have to defend any particular %.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ron1n
lets round it up to pot bet and 50% defend, to not make BB bluff all his hands.
Because almost every hand will still have some equity when called, the SB calling 50% of the time is not sufficient to prevent the BB from profitably semi-bluffing with any hand he can actually hold. However, even if the BB can profitably bet all of his hands after the SB checks behind on the flop, that doesn't necessarily mean that he should. Just as the SB should almost certainly check back the flop sometimes even when he can profitably bet ATC, the BB should check the turn sometimes (after the SB checks behind on the flop) even if he could profitably bet with ATC.
Poker is more complicated than you think it is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ron1n
And I suppose BB will also barrel river close to 100 % where SB folds another 50%. The rest 80% when BB doesnt leads the turn, they see a river and basically SB wins around 70% of the time (obv quite simplistic but it will do the job).
So we have:
EV_SB_whenBBleads= timesBBleads * (timesSBdefendOTT*amoutlostOTT + timesSBdefendsOTT*timesSBdefendsOTR*amountlostOTR)
EV_SB_whenBBleads= 0.20*(0.5*(-4) + 0.5*0.5*(-12)) = 0.2*(-5)= -1
EV_SB_whenBBchecks= timesBBchecks * equity * pot= 2.24
EV_SB_whenBBchecks= 0.80*0.70*4= 2.24
---------------------------------------
EV_SB= +1.24
What job is this calculation supposed to do? It has no relevance whatsoever to poker.