Quote:
Originally Posted by Former DJ
Jonas:
I think your 45 states opt-out "guesstimate" is too high by a factor of approximately 2x. Based on an exhaustive reading of Skall's "Individual State Opt Out Prediction Thread," I believe the number of likely opt-out states is more in the 15-20 range; although the reality is that nobody will really know until states actually start opting out - these are all guesses and (not so informed) opinions.
As for your prediction that the FBI will open a task force to shut down Poker Stars and Full Tilt Poker, I'm not sure what the FBI can really do in that regard since these overseas sites are outside the jurisdiction of U.S. law. (The FBI has to have jurisdiction to launch an investigation or an enforcement action or something as severe as actually attempting to "shut down" a site.) What I think is more likely is that the DOJ will go after Tilt and Stars through indirect means - such as ordering ISPs here in the U.S. to block access to their sites for IP addresses emanating from within the United States. This is similar to how the Government attempted to "enforce" the UIGEA by exerting pressure on banks, credit card issuers, and payment processors. It's the Government's equivalent of guerilla warfare.
Former DJ
The "logic" behind the only 10-15 opt-outs is based on some assumptions I profoundly believe unsound. We will have to wait and see how certain players
line up. Where do the state lotteries come down? Are they willing to fight for revenue or defer support until they get full monopolies? How many states have religious or liberal nanny nutjobs legislators who reflexively oppose any gambling expansion? There are states where 40% or more of legislators fall in that category. You claim intimate state by state knowledge of horse racing looking at extinction, and how they will lobby? Every horse racing state has a lobbying power that dwarfs ours. You can't just say "Oh, our state is blue, we will opt-in" or our state is "revenue starved". It would be nice if the money existed to study and sound out state by state, but it doesn't. So you have to judge our clout vs our opponents clout, and our line of attack is uphill in almost EVERY state. Im not a poker only person any longer, so maybe its not as bread and butter for me, but I still see opting out as a cluster grenade to the people who still are micro to medium stakes "pros".
There is even still time to make "opting out" difficult or poisonous, especially since whatever bill it comes in will never be debated or amended outside of a conference committee. But, I accept no one agrees with me on focusing on tweaking opting out to make it fiscally impossible or nigh-impossible to enforce.
When I say I FBI task force to shut down PS and FTP, its the second hand route. Right now, no one is directing or budgeting funds specifically to make life hell for PS and FTP. If you think everything else I say is pure Chicken Little, please listen to this. The day an internet regulation bill passes, the licensees will demand and get dedicated law enforcement to do everything they can to cut off access to non-licensed sites. Every method of payment will be scrutinized and harassed beyond anything we have seen. IP blocking, domain name seizures, maybe they can't do that, but someone will try those or similar means. Like the DoJ has any regard for rights or the law now.