Hi all,

I’m curious on your thoughts on my prediction table for poker winnings.

Has anyone done something similar? Anything to bear in mind? General thoughts?

I’ve tried to be conservative with win rates. I’m not a total noob. Just a general idea of where I’m at as a player: VPIP/PFR/3betPF/AF/WTSD% - 22/18/5/2.5/28. I’m finding NL2 easy. I’ve dabbled in higher stakes before but not established any large amounts of volume.

And no, I can’t afford to just jump to NL10 before someone suggests it lol My starting role is 60 and I can afford to top it up 25 per month.

As a side note, I haven’t added any rake back in there. Maybe I should? When my role gets beyond the 1K mark I’ll probably occasionally play live low stakes (on the side, but not often).

Is this being too optimistic for your average joe?

TIA

It would be more useful to make an assumption of the standard deviation of results in BB/100 (70-120 is typical in online 6-max) and then run simulations or calculate the probability of certain outcomes. Your calculations appear to be correct but you're ignoring variance, which is orders of magnitude larger than your winrate.