Quote:
Originally Posted by fnord_too
Skall/TE/PX,
Do you think that if the NJ and potentially several others pass legislation and look to have cards in the air in 2013, congress will be more motivated to pass something? Or that the next congress (starting in a week or so) will be unable to come together on the issue?
I am an optimist here; I think the state route might serve as a good forcing function on two fronts: pushing legislation and ensuring a bill that is at least as good as the state bills.
Also, I think an outright ban will be extremely difficult to enact once the genie is completely out of the bottle, and that genie is likely going to include pit games. And the fact that stars might be a player in the NJ arena is extremely encouraging. Just having them in the game seems very pro player to me.
NV will definitely have "cards in the air" in 2013. It will be limited to folks physically present in NV, however, and that will be a severe limitation, but NV knows that. I expect NV officials to make efforts to get other states to "compact" with them, but it will be a long hard slog through the politicians before even the first compact is actually achieved - hence I doubt NV sites will have cards in any other state's air in 2013.
DE has passed legislation but has hardly even begun to implement the terms of that legislation. In DE all casino games will be allowed online. The DE statute also works through the state lottery and we can only hope that they make online poker a priority. If they do, they too will need to compact with other states in order to have a viable poker site, but they will have something running in 2013.
Assuming Christie does not issue another veto, NJ will probably have cards in the air by the end of 2013. NJ also allows all casino games, but the lottery is not running the show. NJ casinos will probably be quite happy with their online slots and blackjack being only available to persons in NJ. This may slow their effort to get compacts for other state's players, but the legislation passed does specifically allow for it and the casinos clearly want it too.
Having PokerStars possibly involved can indeed only help. PS has continually shown itself to be committed to bringing player friendly online poker to the world (so long, of course, as it can profit too).
As to other states, it is still anyone's guess as to where real possibility exists. CA, IA, and IL have all run bills up the flag pole only to pull them back down again. Perhaps this year will be different, but each state is unique and presents both unique possibilities and unique obstacles.
Many other states will also take on the issue to one degree or another, if only because their lotteries want online games.
As to Congress ...
There will be some compromise bills passed sooner or later dealing with our taxing and spending situation, perhaps Reid can make something happen there. But if it does not happen by February or March at the latest, there will be no opportunity to fast track an online gaming bill. And the slow track in DC is mighty slow. Perhaps a few online slot horror stories will motivate Congressional action, but there is no way to control or count on that. Perhaps the tribes will demand action in response to state action. Or perhaps Congresscritters will just take their sweet time posturing over the issue and not do anything until they are essentially irrelevant.
It will be an interesting year, that is all I am certain about. That and the fact that getting anything decent for even a small number of online poker players in even a small number of states will take an awful lot of effort.
Skallagrim