Hello,

So my local poker room has a promo where each month there is a pocket pair designated for the promo. If you....

Flop a set: $75

Flop full House: $300 ($150 if full house made on turn or river, must have the designated pair "trip" up as part of the boat)

Flop quads: $1,000 ($500 if made on turn or river)

My question is how might this affect the EV of some of the calls, opens, etc.? In February it will be pocket 2s, and I know that typically I am mostly folding 22-44 in very early positions in a 9 max game, but would the promo change that enough to make it worthwhile?

The games I am playing are : $2/$3 NLHE with a 600 max buyin, and $3/$5 NLHE with a 1500 max buyin (I usually just buy in for 1k) The rake at 2/3 is 10% up to $5+2 for jackpot/promo and for 3/5 it is 5% up to $4 +2 for jackpot/promo.

Thanks for any insight and apologies if this is the incorrect forum for this thread.

It depends on how you yourself play and how your game plays.

Statistically, you make $12 Sklansky bucks from the promo each time you see the flop with 22.

So, if the game plays relatively passive and you already have an early position limp range, then you can surely put 22 in it and generate either multi-way limp pots or single raised pots, where you call as long as the raise is relatively small.

Now, if you don't have the limping range and actually need to start opening 22 from EP, that might make the promotion not so worth it...

On a few occasions I do find myself able to limp the small pairs. That would be the right way to go instead of opening them from those early positions it seems.

Open question - does this promo also increase the value of opening small pairs which are bigger than the promo pair? Having 44 on a K42 board where the promo pair is ducks could suddenly get a lot more lucrative, idk how often someone would get away from bottom set this deep, but I'm guessing it might happen sometimes, if they know they're getting the set bonus back and/or additional bonuses if the board pairs and/or they put us on just a king, we can surely valuetown the **** out of promo guy?

Guessing the actual EV difference isn't huge given it takes pretty specific circumstances to realise it, but worth considering

Yeah that makes a ton of sense. For what it's worth, in January the promo pair was AA, so you saw people checking back A high flops with absurd frequency and you could always tell what they were holding

It's only worth the $12 on average if you showdown the hand at the river or get a fold on the flop or turn and open your hand, so this means that it's worth less than the about $12 because you are flopping a set and then folding (extremely rarely on the flop), but sometimes folding on the turn or river.

Also, do you get paid if you fold and show?
If so, then you would get paid HU if for example you fold the turn and show instead of mucking, but you wouldn't get paid multi way if folding on the turn if two or more players are still in.

The poker room need to clarify all of the qualification rules.

What you might therefore find is that the ~$12 shrinks down to ~$9.

You then have to consider a little negative EV of having to show down your hand sometimes to collect the bonus, when you otherwise would not have wanted the table to see that information. For me, this shrinks the real value down further, so let's say it's now really only worth ~$7.

My view is therefore carry on playing deuces the same as you have always been. You will still see a flop with them sometimes, in the BB, limping the small, limping along on the button, or calling a small raise pre if you have position on a weak player.

I think a much more interesting dynamic of it is how much more 22 is going to be in other players' ranges?, as it will clearly be a more than usual. So bear this in mind, but don't get carried away thinking that 22 is always likely, it is not, it is just a little more likely. This is another reason for you to not play 22 any differently to usual, because your opponents will assign more 22 to you than they should be, meaning that your value hands will get paid off more often than usual.

Negative - must go to showdown

Doesn't seem worth more than limping pre-flop with pairs.