I played a live 2-3-5 NL cardroom game yesterday for 4.5 hrs. I won $2600.

I was dealt AA a total of 6 times, and I never lost with them. The first 5 times, I got in at least a 3-bet pre-flop and all the hands went to the flop.
The 6th time I had them, everyone folded to my pre-flop raise.

This live game averages 35 hands per hour, so I played about 158 hands during this session. On average you get AA once every 221 hands. Somehow I got them 6 times.

Has anyone else ever had a run like this? How rare is it?

Crazy to think I could have a bad run to this extreme as well, like going 50 hours of play without getting AA once...

Sometimes you have to manufacture wins when the cards arent falling

Is AA the only hand you play? I thought I was the only one who played like that

I had so many good cards dealt to me, I just stuck with the Upswing opening chart. Folded A4s, AJo utg 9-handed. It was an easy day.


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I think by definition if you win $2600 in 4.5 hours of 2-3-5 NL you are running well. That is a laughingly, ridiculously small same size.

Unless you played against people who averaged $100,000 in front of them (and played appropriately), then you know you were running good.

It isn't an insult to point out you ran good over a small stretch. Everyone does. Just do not confuse it with real results.

The fact that you got AA 6 times in that small of a sample obviously means you were lucky. But just as lucky is the fact that you actually win all 6 times. AA vs any other pocket pair, for example, has about 80% equity pre flop. Even if your average PF equity vs the hands calling you is 90%, the probability of going 6/6 is still only about 53%.

You dudes aren't answering the question. Answer the question this is the thread this person started not your thread. I see this alot on the site answer the question.

Assuming max buy in is $1K, up or down $2,600 in 4.5 hours isn’t that crazy. Like yes it’s an eventful session, but you could get it in twice and win $2,600. You could get it in 3 times and lose $3,000. Stuff like that happens all the time if you’re playing solid volume.

Getting AA that many times is some run good but again, not super uncommon, and yes you could easily go 50 hours with no AA.

The thing is when you look at small sample sizes , anything is possible. There’s probably some event every 5 hour session that is statistically very improbable.

TLDR nothing happened that’s all that crazy , congrats on the run good

Ok but IÂ’m sure OP already knows the answers. Yes getting AA 6 times in 158 hands is pretty rare. The probability of getting AA 5 or fewer times in 158 hands is 99.99%. Thus the probability of getting it 6 or more times is 0.01%.

According to OP, 50 hours of live play would be 1750 hands (35 per hr). The probability of not getting AA over this many hands is also low, but itÂ’s 0.036%, 3.6 times more likely than what he experienced. So, yes, you may experience a bad run where you donÂ’t get AA for 50 hours

And yes it is extremely likely that someone, somewhere has experienced a similar lucky streak. A streak like OP had is about a 1 in 10000 event. Consider a hypothetical poker room with 100 regulars, each of whom plays 100 sessions of five hours every year. You would expect that one reg per year from this room would experience a similar streak. Multiply by all the poker rooms out there and all the years we have been playing poker and there likely have been hundreds, if not thousands who have experienced such a streak. Of course, the probability that someone has had such a streak, reads this forum and would take the time to reply to this post is much lower.

Stop assuming... answer the question. Nerd

Umm… OP asked how rare it is to get AA 6 times in a 158 hand session. Answered probability of 0.01% - about a 1 in 10000 occurrence. OP asked if anyone else ever has had such a run. Answer - almost certainly yes; in fact probably hundreds or even thousands have, although maybe not among posters here. He also thought it crazy to think that he could go 50 hours without AA, and I merely pointed out that such arum would be significantly more likely than his lucky run.

What question did I fail to answer again? And you can lay off the name calling. Anyone purporting to be a poker player should understand probability enough to do a simple binomial distribution calculation. (Using Excel of course - the multiplying and dividing would be a bit tedious to do by hand).

I appreciate all the replies, and like learning that it was a 1/10000 occurence.
My other question was directed at the audience here, has it ever happened to you. It seems rare enough that I shouldn't be surprised that no one here answered yes.

Every time I run super lucky, I end up thinking about how the flip side - running similarly unlucky - could happen to me in the future. It might just be my pessimist tendencies.

I resumed playing poker in 2024, and am averaging $83/hr with std dev per hr of $557 (inflated a bit I think, due to a logged $880 win in a 17 min session) over 162 hrs in 2024 at 2-3-5 NL.

If I include stats going back to 2016, I am at $67/hr over 373 hrs.

I've definitely been on a heater, as I am $186/hr over the last 58 hrs.

I've only been listening to poker lesson podcasts and learning about GTO in the recent months, so hopefully my skills have had recent improvement.