Found this on reddit; and it speaks to me on a soul level. This is also my biggest loss leader -> All in not hitting at EV. I don't know what to make of this.

If this can happen for this long to another player; what's the point in even trying? Like; we all say 'variance evens out' but....when? When is this guys variance going to even out? That's ridiculous picture of his EV vs actual....

I'm pissed off for him; that's not right. I really feel like something is wonky with whatever site he's playing at, or...he altered the data somehow. He's seeing all in odds that are basically reverse of expected.

What would a player even do if this is their all in chart? Stop all ins? I mean...****...that's crazy.

It can go on for 100,000 hands at least. The long run is somewhere in the millions of hands. Of course these are at the extreme of the bell curve and any given person will in high likelihood never approach its outlying regions.

It doesn't mean don't play. Getting struck by lightning is a thing. Avoiding the outdoors is not a good reaction. Play, bro.

You need to filter for bbs, not chips, to get an accurate look at this.

Late in a tournament a 20bb pot will be much larger than a 200bb pot early on. So if you won a 200bb pot with 30% equity early on and then lose a 20bb approaching the FT with 70% equity, your graph is going to look like you are a lot of chips below EV, when in reality you are actually running way above EV in BB.

The fact that you bust most tournaments, plus the fact that when you bust its likely to be the largest allin pot of that tournament or close to it, means that its probably near impossible to run above EV in chips over a large sample or else you are just winning a ton of tourneys.


And of course, allin EV is only a fraction of "running good". Being on the right side of set over set, Aces v Kings, flush over flush, etc is just as important if not more so.

play more hands

Paisting's twin brother only he plays MTT's.

According to Paisting you just keeping playing and punishing them whales lol


Cheers!!!

So it's a settings issue showing this type of graph; he's probably not actually negative 40k?

I don't use HUDS or sharkscope subscription; so I have almost no understanding of how that works.

If I understand you correctly; His chips are showing such wide swings because he's busting mid->late in tournament where chips to bb ratio are larger than earlier on? So if he were to swap to bb view; we'd see a better more accurate EV vs Actual chart?