I am TD for a small league here in Australia. Last night I witnessed something which I believe may never have happened before given its absurdity. I calculated the odds at being 4.5 billion to one but my logic may be flawed.
I was the dealer at the final table and the following hands went down.
It was heads up.
1st hand. Liz was dealt pocket 8's, Chris 8 2.
2nd hand Liz again dealt pocket 8's, Chris again 8 2.
and then remarkably I dealt them the same hands a third consecutive time.
I'm not sure about the suits but that doesn't matter. Let's just say that they weren't the exact suits each time.
If someone could run the maths on this for interest that would be appreciated.
Please do as if the 1st hand is already dealt. So the maths will be the likelihood of the 2nd and 3rd hand occurring, if that makes sense.
Odds to deal a pocket pair and another hand containing one of the pocket pair cards back to back (i.e., three in a row of the same hand based on the first hand):
Odds of getting dealt any pocket pair = 52/52 * 3/51 = .059
Odds of next player getting dealt unpaired hand containing one of the pair cards = 2/50 * 48/49 = .039
Combined probability = .0023 or about 1 in 400
Odds of the exact same combo on the next hand (not considering suits) = 4/52 * 3/51 * 2/50 * 4/49 = .000014775 or about 1 in 67,000
Odds of the exact same combo the next hand after that is the same.
So the combined probability is the product of all these, which is really tiny. The odds of specifically 88 vs. 83 is an order of magnitude smaller.
I tried my hand at calculating the probability of the same combo of two hands occurring 3 times in a row (not considering suits) and I get 1/800,848,909. There have been billions of hands dealt over the years, so undoubtedly this has happened a few times. Specifically 88 vs. 83, almost certainly not. But that's true for absolutely any combination of 3 consecutive hands.
If you play long enough you are practically guaranteed to see something odd, whether it's getting AA three times in a row, going up against aces 3 times in a row, seeing aces get cracked three times in a row or whatever. The probability of any particular event is tiny, but the probability of something or other occurring that strikes you as very unusual is pretty much 100%.
The odds of this are so huge to the point hard to believe you're telling the truth. But then again I witnessed someone get 2 back tens 3 out of 4 hands.
Events with astronomical odds against their occurrence happen all the time. Take a standard 52 card deck, shuffle it, flip each card and record the cards you get in order.
The odds that you would get that particular order of cards are 1 in 8 x 10^67, far more astronomical than a mere trillion to one long shot.
Events with astronomical odds against their occurrence happen all the time. Take a standard 52 card deck, shuffle it, flip each card and record the cards you get in order.
The odds that you would get that particular order of cards are 1 in 8 x 10^67, far more astronomical than a mere trillion to one long shot.
to add on to this, it's highly, highly unlikely that there have ever been two decks of cards that have been properly shuffled that have had the same order. In fact there are more combinations of random decks than there are atoms on earth.
to add on to this, it's highly, highly unlikely that there have ever been two decks of cards that have been properly shuffled that have had the same order. In fact there are more combinations of random decks than there are atoms on earth.
The craziest I ever saw was a tournament. Two players get it in preflop AA vs. AA. Flush hits. Player busts. A couple hands later the same player get another player all in KK vs. KK, flush hits, he busts him. A few hands later the same player busts a third player plain flush over flush (something like AX over J10).
Player went from average stack to the overwhelming chip leader with three hands that essentially played themselves.
Poker is all about skill. Any idiot can get lucky and win a given poker tournament or win a bunch of money in a few hours at a cash table. Nobody ever has claimed otherwise. The wacky situation you posted does not change the fact that poker is about skill. It just means that someone had a short-term lucky run. And this is a good thing, too. If the fish ALWAYS lost, how long do you think they would sit at the table and give their money away? Only the fact that they sometimes win keeps them playing and coming back.
Last night playing very very small stakes with friends, I saw something that I might never see again.
Preflop, there's a raise and a call. Flop A88. All the chips go in; it's AA vs 88. Ok, a cooler, but that happens.
The very next hand, the flop has an 8 on it. Turn is another 8. The same guy who had quad 8s the previous hand had 88 again.
The same player got quad 8s on back to back hands. I've heard of someone getting back to back quads (but I've never seen it) but I've never even heard of someone getting the same quads on back to back hands.
)