So - here's the thing - I've been tracking every poker session I've played since 2012, but for various reasons (mostly because most of my games were mixed fixed-limit games before then) I'm only looking at 2017-onward. I did play more *poker* than this, but I'm only including "big bet" games - so basically just NLHE, PLO, and PLO8 sessions. And I'm only including cash, not tournaments.

So I finally did the math and I have about 250 hours of live poker tracked down. I know that's not a huge sample size - even at, say, 40 hands per hour. that's only around ~10,000 hands, but it's a *start.* I'm hoping someone can help me out with some stats analysis (I was never very good at math - dyscalculic).

First off, I'm not sure I've even calculated my BB/hr rate right. If I am right, then the result is that I'm positive to the tune of +20BB/hr over 250 hrs. That doesn't seem possible without a hell of a lot of luck or a big math error.

Secondly, let's say that I have done the math right. How can I get a good idea of where the error bars are on my winrate? Am I +20BB +/- 10BB or +20BB +/- 100BB?

I put the info in google sheets and while it's read-only, I've enabled comments. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing



Would love to get your input.

Firstly that data is beautiful thank you, as someone looking to replicate your journey it really is great to get an inside look.

There are some amazing results you've shown that would be running on the good side of variance especially in omaha.

Nevertheless enjoy your results don't question if it's too high just keep studying and maintain that work ethic.

May I ask, was there any other hidden expenses that you saw from becoming a full time live player that you didn't foresee im just trying to workout my budget for my 6 month emergency fund.

You're almost certainly running good. 250 hrs live is nothing. That being said, with a winrate that high it's likely you're a winning player.

You can try playing around with a variance calculator, like the one on primedope.com. If you click the little question mark next to standard deviation when you're inputting your data, it will tell you typical standard deviations for hold em vs. omaha.

The benchmark I have heard thrown around is that it takes about 100,000 hands in hold em to get a somewhat realistic idea of how you're doing, but even that is considered a "small" sample.