Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 1,113
In the spot you describe, your worst case scenario is villain having something like QcJc giving him a combo draw with 14 turn outs (assuming the T is one of the clubs; the 3 or the 9 of clubs is not an out for villain since it gives you a boat). Given that, villain has about a 51% chance to hit one of his outs OTT or OTR. Your equity is likely still greater than 50% though since you have redraw outs; villain doesn’t not win the pot every time he hits an out.
Assuming villain does not draw out, you only have the flop and maybe the turn to get action. Villain will not call a river bet. Since even in the worst case scenario you are a favorite, raising is profitable, and likely is optimal here. If neither the straight or flush draw completes OTT, I would think betting the turn (maybe even a shove) would be in order as well.