Mmm, against almost everyone this is a value raise. Turning top two pair into a bluff is something that should rarely be done, and would require him folding a hand better than top two pair. Do you expect him to fold a set of 3s if you raise?

If you're against a tight solid opponent, and you realize that your made hand no longer is good enough to merit a call (or it does but a bluffraise has more value) you can choose to turn it into a bluff. The reason it's a good play on certain boards/actions is that good hand readers will put you on a made hand, and realize you can't have air. Then they can make a big fold.

I remember a bluffraise I made deep in a WSOP event. Kristy Gazes opened in the HJ, we were prolly 50bb deep with antes. I call in BB with T7s. Flop Q75r I check-call 2/3 pot. Turn 6. I check, she bets like 1/2 pot. I know she's a solid player, and doesn't have a wide preflop opening range. Basically I think I'm beat by QJ or so almost every time. So I can't call my midpair. Since I figure she's smart and a decent hand reader and doesn't know me from an average tourney player, I raise to about 2.75x her bet, and she thinks and folds.

She has to assume I can't call the flop with air, and that I won't raise with worse than QJ for value. She probably puts me on something like a set or 76/98.

Make sense?

Hi Jman28,

Greatly appreciate the opportunity to ask a question.

In the Well a couple of times you mentioned understanding a player's personality to be crucial, and on more than one occasion you said also that understanding a player's reasoning process is crucial. When I read your first comment (about personality) I felt you could perhaps be suggesting that in the hierarchy of importance this could be number one (in terms of cruciality -lol). Then later I read your comments on the reasoning process of players and I wondered here whether you might not rank this higher than personality, ie. might be the most exploitable aspect of a player.

Freud says the Ego is the reasoning part of the personality, the Reality Principle, negotiating (if you will) between the demands of the Super Ego and the Id. So, if you understand a player's reasoning process you understand their personality.

Do you think this way, or do you have a completely different view of "personality" and "the reasoning process"? And if the latter, which is most crucial to understand in poker?

This makes sense. Hands that originally are intended to be shown down without improvement turn into bluffs because based on how the hand plays out, you put your opponent on a hand that is better than yours, yet not good enough that it can stand much heat.

These are pretty rare, especially at SSNL. There aren't many spots where I'd try to get a 100nl player off top pair or better.

What is the most extravagant/'Balla' purchase you have made with your poker winnings?

Jman, this is the most valuable, insightful post I have ever read on 2+2. I'm beginning to understand the nature of high stakes thought process and certain things in poker that people do wrong and have difficulty identifying what and why they are doing these things wrong.

As for my question, I'm a mostly 1000nl-2500nl HU player trying to make the jump to true high stakes. Is there anything specific you suggest for me to do or think about as I try to make this jump?

Obviously it's the biggest transition I've taken, beginning at 100nl HU. FWIW I'm making somewhere around 8bb/100 at 1000nl and swongin' all over the place at 10/20 and 10/25.

I'm just looking for any words of wisdom, so I can have a perspective as to what it takes to "make it" at 2500nl+ HU.

Thanks again for doing this, especially over the holidays. The answers are probably worthy of their own posts. A couple of more minor clarifications if you have time.

Considering 3 pair should beat a higher 2 pair, should a straight + a pair beat just a straight? Similarly should a 7 card straight flush beat a higher 5 card straight flush? These are the questions that keep me awake at night!

Cheers

BR reqs are a function of what you're comfortable with. I think most people underestimate variance. Most people don't understand how bad it can get.

Looking back at the way I started, I might not be playing still had I not run good for the beginning of my career.

Most pros probably started out running good. Most 'would be' pros who run bad at the start of their career probably lost interest and/or confidence and many give up.

Since a lot of us ran good to start our career, we have a romantic sense of how poker should go ingrained in our minds, even if we've experienced average luck since.

I think 5% of pros I know think that they've run average or above average lifetime. I would guess that 65% of them have run above expectation.

Anyways that was a tangent, but my answer is I don't really know what a good BR management system is. I don't believe in many rules like that either. I suggest you have more than you think you need. Much more. But if you want to take shots, and think you're willing to deal with the consequences ($$ and emotionally) and step down and grind, I support it.

Would you mind giving your thoughts on momentum during a heads up match? Specifically, any adjustments when the other guy seems to be winning the "I-miss you-miss" game?

I feel like it shouldn't be a factor between good players, but in practice it seems to be.

Thx for sharing this information with us.

I don't think that this has been brought up yet. Early on you mention that your not much of a stats person. Do you use a HUD when you play? I know it makes less sense for playing HU against players that you know, but I can see it being of value in the 25/50 ring games.
I find that at times a HUD is more confusing than helpful, because it may indicate one thing when in truth villain is playing differently in a given situation than he would on average, due history or table dynamics. I also feel that the tendency to auto-pilot is way higher whe you see numbers infront of you.
To me the most value from HUDs come from the PF stats, but then again I play wider player pools than you.

wow we have the exact same personality..thats nuts.


you said that phil ivey is more annoying but sbrugby is tougher HU. does that mean that you think brian has an edge over phil?,,,or do you see any leaks in phil ivey's game?

Hey guys, I'll be busier than the last couple days now. I'll get to more questions, but not all of them, and not right away.

Will you ever mentor your own protege?

You emphasized how much your friends helped you by just chatting and watching them play, would you ever do someone (or a group of students) out there a favor like that?

wow... this is very very funny... unfortunately, at your expense.

banana thieving is so much funnier when people dont know what it is.

edit: also, phil this thread is awesome as i would've expected. nice job.

come show off your new chiseled body at the pca you loser.

As 1/2 of my prospective degree is philosophy I feel obligated to ask what branch(es) of philosophy most interested you?

Note: I'm not sure if its been asked, as I'm only about halfway through this fantastic thread. Keep it up!

I've thought about writing a book plenty.

I'd probably write a strategy book if I did. I don't think many people care about my biography or a fictional story I might write.

The main thing standing in the way is how much work it is to write a book. And how much money you can('t) make. If I thought I could make around 60% of my hourly rate writing a book instead of playing, I would do it.

Thank you.

I wrote the material for a specific project that may or may not end up working out.

Since it's already written, I likely will release what I have done in some form or another no matter what.

A small edge at 200/400nl is still a pretty decent winrate.

I don't think you need to play against good players to improve your game, though it is a nice challenge and might motivate you.

I think you're probably doing it the right way though. Real life things are good.

I basically have zero limit experience. If I limit game opened up, I think it would have to be full of megefish before I jumped in.

If a new pot limit game was invented tomorrow, I would probably play in any 6 handed game.

My db is broken up into like 4 dbs across 3 computers, and I'm missing half the hands. I would guess it'd be worth 10k to certain people, but it would be worth more than that to me for them to not have it.

I visited my family in MD in September. Does that count? Otherwise, family in NC. Otherwise Vegas sometime.

I don't really like to travel. If I could teleport to anywhere in the world right now, I would stay right here in Madison, WI. Though maybe I would teleport 3hrs into the future and to Jamba Juice.

He's not right for everyone. As with any expensive coach, I'd recommend that you have a decent sized roll, and that you were serious about playing poker semi-long term. That way it will definitely payoff.

When I signed up, he did a consult over the phone to see if it was a fit for me. I assume he still does that.

Intelligence is mandatory at high stakes. You can be fairly unintelligent and develop a 'system' of sorts to beat even midstakes games.

Everyone defines intelligence differently. I think in the areas of intelligence that translate best to poker ability, I'm in the top handful of players.

I touched on it earlier, but I think the important areas are logic, probability, and psychology.

Wanna hire me as an improv coach?

I just realized you guys might find this funny. I teach a class for the improv company I'm in. Students pay $100 for a semester of classes from me, which ends up being about 30 hours. 7 people in my class this semester.

So I cost $23.33/hr as an improv coach.

I never studies game theory formally. I just kind've picked it up from poker books and talking about poker.

Solvable? I don't think so. I mean, well maybe. I think there's a chance they could possibly create a computer that would be a favorite HU v anyone. I'm not sure though.

Realistically though, no, I don't think it's solvable. I have no fear that a bunch of 100bb bots are gonna ruin the games, or that some author will figure it all out, release a book, and then everyone will know how to play perfectly.

I mean... no. I can't think of 1 tip. It's too complex a question. Read my Gbucks article.

Vs. an unknown (assuming a decent player) at 25/50nl, prolly something like:

99+, AJo+, ATs, KQ, KTs+, 54s+ (75% of the time), 75s-QTs (50% of the time)

It's player dependent as well as flow of match dependent. So this changes a lot based on who I'm playing and our history, especially recent history.

I'm sorry to say this but:

1-2) I don't want to say
3) I'm not qualified to say.

I think Lars is very good. One of the best. He has leaks, but he is clearly very very smart.

Yes, this is essentially raising for info. I don't recommend raising for info against smart tricky players, but against a straightforward player, it's totally fine.

I don't understand the last part of your question. What exactly do you mean?