http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/8754553

Villian is pretty tight for what i've seen and his line doesn't any sense to me. Doubt he overbet with overpair and I dont see him squeezing here with A4s etc.
At the same time I got really good calling hand but got to remember he's tight.

He also did it pretty fast. Usually opponents who snap bet/shove rivers are bluffing because when you have a good hand most people fake tank and actually think about the hand.

I guess this spot is pretty dependant on villian but still can't figure it out.

I'd say TT/JJ are likely candidates. The turn check seems weak and he would likely bet any Qx he had as the board becomes more and more connected.

However, I think due to your line he could easily be holding an Ax holding for a bluff or thin value hand. It seems weird that he would check any Queen on that board but makes sense that he would bet the river with a wider range because you have ch/c, c, c all the way through. In fact, I'd probably say that he put you on TT-88, KJ, 6x and so on.

I think the overbet is indicative of a bluff or thin value here; I'm puzzled as to why he'd bet that size given the general passivity of the hand. Would also help to see some history on this player. Not sure if this helps, just the way I'd see this hand.

I would be 100% certain that he wouldn't show up with some medium hand like TT-JJ when he bets that large. Because utg openend and he squezes from the big blind his range will be pretty strong and I would for certain check some queens on the river also. It would make sense for him to check back hands even like AA most flatting ranges in the sb almost always consists of 55-99 and on the the turn it hits my range perfectly.

Perhaps, but given your play isn't it possible that he is playing one of these weaker hands and trying to get you to crycall with a hand like the one you have? Yeah, AA is certainly possible, I'm not disputing that. His checking back range on the turn suggests to me a weaker Q that is uncertain of his status; to be honest I can't see any middle ground with the river overbet. How were you playing so far, are you also a reg?

How Am I supposed to crycall when he overbets 2x pot on the river? He doesn't really have a weak Q because he(in my experience) only squeezes here with KQs-AQs or even AQs only.

In my experience players that take this line on my limit only do it with the supernuts aka QQ and maybe KK-AA if he's a thinking player.

Also this is a pretty bad spot for him to overbet. He can't rep a 4 because he doesn't have that in his range. I still have sets in my range because i'd probably go for a check raise on the river with my sets.

Well is it a tendency of this player or not? If you say he's a tight player then yes, I'd obviously say the inclination would be to fold; his aggression is irregular and probably value-heavy here. Hopefully someone else can answer and put in a different perspective to compare to.

I guess it all boils down to his value range on the river // his cold 3bet range preflop in the BB. Being a tight player as you mention, and also seeing like this card hits your range more often. I think we never see villain with small suited connector as we should see those in his flatting range at a high frequency, so a straight is out of the question. You don't give me much stats for me to figure out his range... If hes bad tight its an easy fold, if he is strong tight then the following analysis applies. If hes a pro then for sure the following line applies.

On the river I would polarize his value range in the following way -->

89s (almost impossible with 2 9s in your hand,)
44 possible if he interprets your flat as being weak and figure he can get value from a utg call if he hits a 4.
A4ss, A4hh, that he cbets and shuts down OTT.
QQ is probably a check on the flop at a fairly high frequency unless you overcall small bets on the flop.
55, 33
66,77 sometimes.

I think the better play here is to JAM river. folding potentially 66/77, KK/AA if its in his value range. Effectively with the amount of chips you have remaining I don't see alot of difference in value owning yourself VS calling and keeping that 200 behind. You are only leaving 167 behind on a call vs putting it in and folding maybe 25% of his value OTR. I think it makes sense. You will have alot of 89s there.

If you are not jamming 99 / 88 there, which hands would you jam as a bluff to balance out your value range (89s, 44).

If hes owning you there, what are you going to do, nice play on him to overbet/call AA,KK etc... but you will own him in the long run with all the 89s in your range. My opinion any way.